FT: If Vučić were a figure, he would most likely be a hunter, he could best be described as a chameleon

"Even when he was cooperating with Trump's allies, and increasingly with the Biden administration, Vučić nurtured relations with the great rival of America - China, for the sake of investment. He also maintained a sentimental connection with Moscow, although mostly by proxy, keeping the Russian president "Vladimir Putin at a distance. Serbian nationalists, a powerful force in domestic politics, see Russia as a Slovenian soulmate," FT assesses

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Vučić, Photo: BETAPHOTO/MILAN ILIC
Vučić, Photo: BETAPHOTO/MILAN ILIC
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

For a quarter of a century, the busy thoroughfare in the center of Belgrade has been dominated by the ruins of the General Staff building. It was deliberately left as it was after the NATO bombing in 1999, writes the Financial Times (FT), and N1 reports.

The FT adds that now "this temple of Serbian nationalism should be demolished and converted into a glittering hotel and apartment complex."

"Of all the places in the world, the investors are from America, an old adversary of Belgrade, which led NATO military interventions twice in the 1990s to thwart Serbian aggression in the region," FT says.

And it's not just any old American financiers.

Behind the project are Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law and former senior adviser, who heads Affinity Partners, an investment fund backed by Saudi Arabia, and Richard Grenell, a prominent former member of the Trump administration, who has maintained close ties to the former president and helped achieve agreement with the Government of Serbia.

"The deal is a case study of how a small, non-aligned country can prepare for Trump's possible return to the White House, analysts say. It also reflects the West's increased focus on Serbia, at a time when distancing itself from its historic soulmate, of Russia, became a priority," writes the FT.

He adds that Aleksandar Vučić, the president of Serbia since 2017, insists that the agreement is a pure business venture and underestimates the idea of ​​"service for service".

"I am very proud of that. It will bring more investors and more people to Belgrade. Then, we will have a Trump hotel, a Ric-Carlton hotel... We will have everything soon. The people negotiating on the side of the Americans are very professional. Their demands are not small," he said. is Vučić for FT.

That media assesses that, however, the agreement seems to be obviously political.

"The other side is, after all, the Serbian state. This puts Vučić in a close relationship with the White House in the event of the victory of his colleague, the nationalist populist, Trump, in the November presidential elections," states the FT.

According to the FT, Grenell, an open, not to say combative, ally of Trump, who is mentioned as a potential secretary of state if the former president wins a second term, first presented the idea of ​​such an investment in Belgrade, when he was Trump's envoy for the Balkans.

It was linked to a broader vision of encouraging US investment in Serbia to try to tie itself to the Western sphere of influence and weaken its relationship with Russia, according to those involved in the deal.

"Grenell likes to present it as a way to help US-Serbian relations move on from the past, as an echo of US investments in Japan, after 1945," writes the FT.

"I believe we have made significant steps in pulling Serbia away from the influence of Russia and China and bringing it closer to the US. I also admit that more needs to be done and I am committed to doing just that," Grenell told the FT.

Swimming through a multipolar world

To forestall criticism of the deal by the powerful right-wing Serbian nationalist lobby, which is strongly pro-Moscow, the investors pledged to build a monument to the victims of NATO bombing on the site, in consultation with Serbian architects, according to the FT.

At the same time, Kushner plans to invest in a luxury tourism project in nearby Albania, to the delight of its Prime Minister Edi Rama.

"We need super luxury, just like the desert needs water," said Rama, adding that Kushner and Grenell had an overture in Albania, before they turned to Serbia for investment.

The only difference, as stated by Rama, is that Kushner, not Grenell, took the first step in Albania.

"In Serbia, Grenel was certainly the first, but not here," said Rama.

In Washington, the deal raised questions about a possible conflict of interest if Trump returns to the White House.

Grenell and Kushner rejected this, claiming that they were acting as private individuals.

Kushner said that in the event of Trump's return, he would not be part of his administration, according to the FT.

In Europe, this project is seen as a maneuver by Vučić, who has dominated domestic and regional politics for a decade, first for three years as prime minister and then for seven as president, who likes to oppose America and the EU to Russia and China, for his own benefit, according to FT.

"He is a passionate chess player," says Milan Antonijević, a Serbian lawyer and human rights expert, who says Vučić is trying to steer a middle course that best suits Serbia's long-term interests in an increasingly multipolar world.

"And he knows that we don't have that many players on the global chessboard," he adds.

Vučić has an actual chessboard with a clock in his library.

FT believes that if Vučić were a figure, he would most likely be a hunter who would zigzag across the board.

Sitting on multiple chairs

"Even when he was cooperating with Trump's allies, and increasingly with the Biden administration, Vučić nurtured relations with the great rival of America - China, for the sake of investment. He also maintained a sentimental connection with Moscow, although mostly by proxy, keeping the Russian president "Vladimir Putin at a distance. Serbian nationalists, a powerful force in domestic politics, see Russia as a Slovenian soulmate," FT assesses.

Serbs calculatedly love China, says Srđan Bogosavljević from the public opinion research agency IPSOS, and "irrationally" Russia.

The FT reminds that Serbia is one of two European countries (the other is Belarus) that have not imposed sanctions on Russia.

When it comes to Beijing, Serbia and Hungary are the only two European countries that Chinese President Xi Jinping visited in May, after his state visit to France.

China has invested a lot in Serbia and is often at the top of public opinion polls as the most popular foreign power, FT writes.

However, at the same time, Vučić nurtures relations with French President Emmanuel Macron and advocates cooperation with the EU on the development of potentially Europe's largest lithium mine in western Serbia, a project worth several billion euros.

The FT indicates that Vučić insists that his goal is membership of the EU, Serbia's largest trading partner.

"She has been a candidate for 12 years, but has done little to overcome the EU's concerns about Belgrade's commitment to the rule of law and when it comes to the unresolved status of Kosovo," says the FT.

"Comprehensive policy" by Vučić

"Vučić has a comprehensive policy," says Ivan Vejvoda, associate at the Institute for Humanities in Vienna.

"One moment you have Sio visiting. Then… a few days later Zelenska (Ukraine's first lady) and Dmytro Kuleba (Ukraine's foreign minister) come. Then he goes to the Russian Cultural Center and gives a revisionist speech. And then, two days later, he is with the EU and is discussing growth plans," adds Vejvoda.

Asked if he believes in the EU, Vučić sidesteps the question.

"I'm not someone who would defend or attack it. When you see people attacking the EU very fervently, I don't go there, because those people are not rational. But when I see hysteria about the so-called values ​​of the EU, I do the same," said Vučić and added that is too much groupthink about the EU.

"If you go to (EU) meetings, it will be a big pro-Ukraine rally. If someone doesn't say what everyone expects, it's like being an intruder... Nobody wants to hear different opinions," Vučić believes, FT reports.

He also says that when the head of state of the new BRICS member state suggested that Serbia join that group of rapidly developing countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), because the West is fading, he rejected the offer. "I told him that we are on our way to the EU," said Vučić.

Courting the West to Vučić

"For Western powers, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has made courting Vučić a priority, amid lingering concerns that Moscow could try to stir hostilities in neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, which have restive Serb minorities," the FT writes.

Western diplomats and regional analysts believe he is leaning towards the West, adds the FT.

"In his interview with the FT, he presents his stance against sanctions as a result of his aversion to sanctions, after they were imposed on Serbia during the Balkan wars in the 1990s. He also all but confirms that he has discreetly helped Kiev by selling ammunition to third parties that end up in Ukrainian armed forces. forces," according to the FT.

"Vučić is neither a Russian proxy, he is not little Putin, as he is sometimes portrayed. Do most Serbs love Putin? Yes. Do they love Russia? Yes. But when you ask them where they want to travel, they all want to go to Western Europe," says Vejvoda. .

Vučić – chameleon

Vučić could best be described as a chameleon, FT believes.

He adds that he entered politics as an extreme nationalist, and although he has moved towards the center, he still regularly plays the nationalist card to gather support on the right wing, and he recently organized an all-Serbian rally in Belgrade.

"To his critics, he is little different from Viktor Orbán, Hungary's illiberal prime minister, a Trump fan who belittles the EU and NATO's stance on Ukraine," the FT said.

The leader of the Freedom and Justice Party, Dragan Đilas, says that "Vučić corrupted the state."

"Prosecutors, for example, are a disaster, completely politicized. Vučić is not popular in Belgrade, but he understands that nationalism is the only way to stay in power," quotes FT Đilas.

However, at the same time, he built a friendship with Alex Soros, an investor and philanthropist who chairs the board of the Open Society Foundation, founded by his father George, whom supporters of Orbán and Trump have long feared as an agent of pernicious liberalism, according to the FT.

"If anything, Vučić is a milder version of Orban," according to analysts.

Although Vučić is an echo of Orban, "it is not an imitative routine", says lawyer Antonijević, adding that the media in Serbia, for example, is less under control than in Hungary.

Trump vs Biden

The FT states that the Biden administration has invested time and money to attract Vučić to the Western camp, and has supported an ambitious solar energy project in Serbia.

There is no doubt, however, that Trump would be a more natural partner than Biden, FT assesses.

"He believes that if Trump wins, it will be good for him. Grenel has been very active in the region for the last four years, on the side of Belgrade," said one European diplomat.

Asked how Trump's second term would affect Serbia, Vučić again manipulated.

"I am not as big a leader as many others in Europe who take sides. My friend Viktor (Orban) is 100 percent on Trump's side. My friends from Brussels, they are 100 percent on Biden's side. I am not. I am on Serbia's side, waiting for the result," said Vučić.

But he continues to recall the visit to Trump's White House - and to compare it to superficial meetings with Biden, the FT points out.

"When I visited the White House, it was at a time of great disagreement with Rick Grenell, but he was a very hard-working, very dedicated person. We had almost three hours of discussion in a submarine-like room. I can't say I get the same treatment now. But I can say that I had good conversations with Biden before he became president. I met him once or twice at receptions, but they were not substantive conversations, 90 percent will be on Trump's side," Vučić said.

How would Trump's re-election affect the Western Balkans?

The big question now for the region is how Trump's re-election can affect the thorny, long-lasting divisions among Serbia's closest neighbors.

On the road from the airport leading to Belgrade, large black letters stretch across the overpass: "Kosovo is Serbia". On the other side of the overpass, visible to those leaving the city, it says: "Remember – Kosovo is Serbia," FT reports.

"The status of Kosovo, the legendary birthplace of the Serbian nation, has been a political wound in the region since 1999, when NATO bombing paved the way for the former province to declare independence from Serbia in 2008," says the FT.

Last year, European negotiators brokered a temporary agreement, supported by the Biden administration, according to which Belgrade would informally allow Kosovo to integrate into international organizations, while Pristina would give greater autonomy to the regions where Serbian minorities live, FT reminds. However, he adds, that agreement was never implemented.

The FT estimates that the intensity of the negotiations could increase dramatically if Trump is re-elected. In private conversations, Grenell signaled that if he has a higher role in a possible second Trump administration, the Balkans will be his priority, and that he sees Serbia and the region as a natural ally of America.

When Grenell was the envoy for the Balkans, he insisted on an agreement on Kosovo, according to diplomats in the region.

He has angered many European officials, pushing for a quick solution, according to the FT. He also made it clear that he has little time for the position of Aljbin Kurti, the Prime Minister of Kosovo. Last year, the FT writes, European officials and the Biden administration also grew frustrated with Kurti, accusing him of not wanting compromise and of undermining hopes for a solution.

Kosovo officials and domestic opponents worry that a second Trump administration would be soft on Vučić.

Grenell's allies respond, pointing to how he has in the past pressured Vucic to distance himself from Moscow and pushed him to diversify energy supplies from Russia, which provides most of Serbia's gas.

For Vučić, urgent insistence on an agreement would be an inconvenience.

"Acceptance of Kosovo's independence is a formal condition for Serbia's EU integration. However, giving in to Western pressure and agreeing to it could be political suicide," FT writes.

"No one has been as popular as Vučić in the last 30 years. But, even with this popularity, even if he wanted to call a referendum on the independence of Kosovo, he would not be able to pass," believes Bogosavljević from IPSOS.

"You have to learn every day. Only donkeys don't change their minds"

Turning away from Kosovo, FT points out, Vučić has recently fueled a wave of nationalist feelings towards Bosnia.

"Nevertheless, Western diplomats say they believe him when he says that his priority is economic development. His main project, which will coincide with the predicted end of his presidency in 2027, is the EXPO, a world exhibition, which he hopes will put Serbia on a new economic path.

"When I talk about EXPO, I'm talking about fundamental changes in this country," he says.

In this context, adds the FT, Vučić sees opportunities for investment whoever wins the American elections — pointing to real estate projects along the lines of the Kushner/Grenel agreement, as well as to Belgrade on the Water, "a development project on the banks of the Sava River."

This was supported by the same Emirati investor, Mohamed Alabar, who was behind the marina in Durrës, Albania.

"For his desperate opponents, such talk is cheap. They see Vučić as an untrustworthy Janus-figure (a two-headed Roman god, a symbol of duplicity). Vučić rejects criticism and says that everyone needs to know that they are changing, FT reports and quotes Vučić's words: "You have to study every day. Only donkeys don't change their minds."

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