Despite expectations, Richard Grenell, who during Donald Trump's first term was the US president's special envoy for peace negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo, was not nominated for secretary of state. And while there was sporadic celebration in the Western Balkans, it may be too early to rejoice.
Grenell remains in position for a key diplomatic role in the incoming Trump administration. His frequent visits to the Western Balkans suggest he may be entrusted with a role that focuses on the wider region.
He could also be appointed as an envoy for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Behind such an appointment could be hidden a more cunning plan: ending the war in Ukraine could strengthen Grenell's credentials to the extent that he would later be nominated for the position of Secretary of State.
Grenell gained significant experience in the Western Balkans during the first Trump administration and has been deepening ties in the region ever since. His main move then was to quickly achieve peace based on economic normalization, although he often ignored deeper inter-ethnic tensions and obstacles in the area of the rule of law.
For democratization to prevail, the Western Balkans must avoid being seduced by the superficial solutions of the incoming American administration. Spectacular deals may provide temporary economic relief for a historically neglected region, but risk undermining systemic reforms needed to address governance problems
For Grenell, the Balkans is a hot zone to be managed and profited from, not a key border region for strategic engagement, especially in light of Russia's ambitions. This approach attracts some of the elites who have made business deals with him, but Grenell's disregard for reforms and democratization could bring the countries of the region into conflict with the EU accession process.
However, this need not be an "either-or" question: the countries of the Western Balkans could balance continuing engagement with the incoming US administration, while remaining on the path to the EU. Although EU enlargement is often highlighted as a strategic priority for Brussels, progress is slow. While the technocratic EU accession process is challenging for Western Balkan aspirants, the majority in five of the region's six countries still support membership of the Union.
For democratization to prevail, the Western Balkans must avoid being seduced by the superficial solutions of the incoming American administration. The spectacular deals may provide temporary economic relief for a historically neglected region, but they risk undermining the systemic reforms needed to address governance problems. Nor will they resolve the historical injustices that continue to pervade the region, as evidenced by Serbia's inflammatory rhetoric during the adoption of the Srebrenica Resolution at the UN and its lobbying against Kosovo's bid to join the Council of Europe.
Instead, combining Grenell's economic focus with a commitment to European integration could offer a more balanced way forward. There are several possible scenarios at this stage.
First, Grenell could continue cooperation with like-minded leaders in the region, strengthening Serbia's dominant position. During Joe Biden's presidency, Grenell brokered real estate deals between Trump's son-in-law and regional leaders, creating lucrative hotspots in Belgrade and the Albanian island of Sazan. These moves angered citizens but motivated the elite, illustrating Grenell's penchant for top-down economic deals.
In the second scenario, Kosovo would be further isolated, unable to set its own conditions for participation in international forums. Kosovo Prime Minister Aljbin Kurti, who was dismissed in 2020 under American pressure while Grenel played a significant role, now enjoys wide domestic support due to his sovereignty-first attitude and incorruptibility. However, he is diplomatically marginalized because of his principled stance, and with Grenell in play, Kosovo politics could once again face outside interference.
In a third scenario, Grenell could focus on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with sporadic and inconsistent engagement in the Balkans. In this case, the current dynamics would remain largely unchanged. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, as a master of balancing, continues to avoid compliance with EU sanctions against Russia while simulating progress on the road to the EU. Meanwhile, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's latest push for Serbia to open negotiations on Cluster 3 of the accession process has shown that autocratic alliances on European soil are strong. However, given that Hungary's presidency of the Council of the EU is about to end, this momentum could change. Without strong American engagement, Vucic and other leaders could continue to deepen ties with China, causing friction with Grenell and Trump. This scenario carries the risk of greater fragmentation and erosion of trust in Western values if the EU does not speed up concrete enlargement efforts.
Finally, in a more optimistic scenario, Grenell's deal-making talent could break through the bureaucratic inertia slowing the region's progress in the EU accession process. If he were to balance his economic pragmatism with a recognition of the importance of governance and the rule of law, his engagement could revive the region's stalled ambitions. Mechanisms such as the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans could provide a platform for aligning US and EU interests. However, this would require the United States and the EU to overcome their differences and work toward common goals, an ambitious but not impossible task.
Across the Balkans, autocrats could easily align themselves with Grenell's transactional style, toning down nationalist rhetoric while seizing economic opportunities. Smaller countries, where the US has less interest, may not be directly targeted; however, they will feel the destabilizing effects of regional shifts. The EU must take a more active role by keeping the enlargement process alive, offering interim rewards for progress and maintaining consistent engagement with the region's leaders. The value of regular visits to the region should not be underestimated. The Western Balkans risks becoming a region at the crossroads between US and EU influence: Managing this balance will be key.
Grenell's potential return carries both risks and opportunities for the Western Balkans. His decisions - whether he favors authoritarian leaders, retreats or implements a pragmatic transformation - will shape not only his legacy, but also the direction the region will take at this crucial moment. While the winds of change blow hard, the countries of the Western Balkans must remain committed to their long-term goals of democratization and European integration - processes that are far more permanent than autocrats or spectacular deals of the moment.
Prepared by: A.Š.
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