The demands of the demonstrators in Serbia are justified, but the government's response, which repeats the well-known pattern of disproportionate use of force at protests, is worrying, said Aleksandra Karpi, an expert of the American organization Freedom House for the Balkans.
Another recurring pattern is that the ruling party in Serbia calls early elections during a crisis, but points out that there are no indications that any of the election conditions have changed, Karpi told the Voice of America (VOA).
The Freedom House expert draws attention to the phenomenon of "transactional politics" which is becoming more and more common between Serbia and the West, and because of which perhaps the external pressure on the government is not what opponents of the government would expect.
Aleksandra Karpi says that the current protests in Serbia remind her of the "Serbia against violence" protests, after the mass murders in Belgrade and near Mladenovac in May 2023, with the specifics that now the protests are led by students.
"I am concerned about the government's response to these protests... We see that there are more and more violent clashes with the police and it seems to me that there is a disproportionate use of force against the protesters, that is worrying. But it is also a pattern of behavior of the ruling party that we have been following for a long time. We have seen we are also at the protests against lithium mining in August. And that is a warning sign in terms of where Serbian democracy is going," said Karpi.
She reminded that Freedom House has been recording for years that democracy is in decline.
"The positive side of the story is that there is still a local demand for democracy and accountability and transparency are demanded. But the space for these voices to be heard and to have a more significant impact on the political scene is drastically reduced."
The EU and the US have responded quietly to the protests against lithium and this gives the impression of an increasingly 'transactional' policy. In the sense that as long as Aleksandar Vučić offers economic or security benefits - support for Ukraine, for example - there will not be strong international pressure
Speaking about the protests initiated by the death of 15 people at the railway station in Novi Sad, Karpi said that it is important to emphasize that the local demands are democratic and legitimate, because of the lives that were lost.
"All that is happening now is the result of years of institutional decay, and Serbia is falling more and more every year according to our indicators," she said.
Karpi also drew attention to the narrative nurtured by the President of Serbia, a tactic to delegitimize the protesters.
"When people talk about 'colored' revolutions, about the fact that these are not legitimate protests, that they are financed from abroad, that it is a coup d'état - we have already seen all this at all the protests in the past years. And then when we talk about international factors, how could someone from abroad comment on that without it being used as an asset of the ruling party and used against the protesters? The situation is very complex," Karpi said.
She is of the opinion that without international pressure, we cannot expect the regime to make some changes overnight.
"And when we talk about the broader Western policy towards the region in recent years, it has been - to put it mildly - not to interfere much directly".
"The EU and the US have responded quietly to the protests against lithium, and this gives the impression of an increasingly 'transactional' policy." In the sense that, as long as Aleksandar Vučić offers economic or security benefits - support for Ukraine, for example - there will not be strong international pressure - to which we know that this government is reacting," said Karpi.
She said that the Amnesty International report, which states that the Serbian police and intelligence services use spying software to monitor journalists, dissidents, and activists, is worrying.
"We at Freedom House were very worried by this report. We know that this level of surveillance is not only disproportionate, but that it has a very negative effect on democracy - it undermines procedures, privacy, basic democratic processes, the functioning of institutions, affects freedom of speech and civil society," said the Freedom House expert for the Balkans.
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