At a rally in support of Aleksandar Vučić two years ago, the government and the opposition from Republika Srpska marched together through the streets of Belgrade. The former to curry favor with the mother country in order to remain in power, the latter to take over that power. They failed in that. In the second round, they now see an opportunity in the student protests in Serbia, through which both the government and the opposition in that entity – give support to official Belgrade. With one exception.
The political situation in Republika Srpska and the relationship between the government and the opposition should be understood from the perspective of the government led by Dodik's SNSD, which has been on that throne for 20 years, but also of the opposition, which has been increasingly fragmented over the past two decades, with only timid attempts to consolidate.
(Il)legal gathering
That is why both political currents have been siding with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and the Serbian Progressive Party for years, and this is the only issue on which they are united – all under the pretext of protecting the Serbian national identity. The student protests in Serbia have once again shown that both the government and the opposition are on the same course.
"I don't think a serious politician in RS today, and a responsible person, is someone who expresses political views on something that is happening in another country, even if it is Serbia, which is our homeland and which we look up to. And that's why we don't do that," says SDS president Milan Miličević, emphasizing that he has a personal opinion on the student protests, but that he wants to keep it to himself.
Thus, the leader of the largest opposition party in RS does not want to interfere in the internal affairs of another state. However, just two years earlier, Milicevic answered this way when asked if he would attend a rally of the Serbian Progressive Party in Belgrade:
"My general stance, not only on the rally in Belgrade, but generally on any public gathering – I consider it legitimate and necessary for groups, political parties, NGOs, to express their will on any important political or life issue. I consider it legitimate. I know for sure that a significant number of SDS supporters and sympathizers will be at the rally in Belgrade," Milicevic said at the time.
Almost all political actors, who want to grab some political points from Serbia on this, have not given clear support to the student protests, nor have they highlighted anything like the broader possibility of support in the Republika Srpska.
Subjection
The exception is Nebojša Vukanović, president of the opposition Justice and Order List, who is also departing from the positions he held two years ago. At that time, he was explicitly against anyone from RS interfering in Serbia's internal affairs, but today he is the only politician who openly supports the students.
"We respect Mr. Vučić as president. We can be partners, but never subjects. We support the student protests demanding accountability for that chaos. They hid documents, but we will not go into details... But a true and healthy Serbia remains with the young," said Vukanović, reproaching Vučić for interfering in the electoral process in the RS.
Since the beginning of the protests in Serbia, several support rallies have been held in Bosnia and Herzegovina, mostly involving students, a few citizens, activists, or representatives of some non-governmental organizations. As for why there are no larger gatherings, the answers may lie in the streets.
"No matter what protests, it's all the influence of some other interests", "My son, who are you protesting against? Why", "We need to support students in Serbia. Everything needs to change", "No one will go to protests even because of our problems, and there are as many as you want. And if I go to protests for someone in Serbia. What do I care, they elected him themselves, let them tear him down themselves" - some of the citizens of Banja Luka told us.
Media darkness
Late last year, an informal group of citizens held a protest of support in Banja Luka, primarily to honor the victims of the tragedy in Novi Sad. The new one, organized by students, will be held on Friday, January 31. Due to possible police reaction, they do not want to go public with statements before the protest. One of the participants in previous support rallies in Banja Luka is lawyer Aleksandar Jokić. He believes that the protests in Serbia are a clear indication that society wakes up when fear disappears.
He is aware that Banja Luka did not play a significant role in the protests, and that the reason for such late support that is coming now is the great fear that prevails among citizens, as well as the media darkness and the media and political persecution against students and the protests.
"We are truly living in a parallel reality here, where the only rays of information about the protests can reach the citizens of Banja Luka through the internet media and social networks. The almost unanimous support for the authorities in Serbia from the government and the opposition from Republika Srpska (the notable exception being Nebojša Vukanović's List for Justice and Order) has left citizens in even greater fear, because in the event of pressure from the authorities, there would be no one to stand behind them," says Jokić, emphasizing that this is why every rally is a great act of courage and a great feat.
In addition to the government and the opposition, which are united in their support for Vučić, the state of this political consciousness is also monitored by the most powerful media outlets controlled by these two currents. The opposition media outlets, which normally attack the "autocratic government", as it is called in Republika Srpska, generally do not deal with anything that does not fit into the political alphabet of official Belgrade. The same is true of the media in the hands of the government in RS.
Geopolitical moment
Although he made a disastrous move in the 2012 presidential elections in Serbia when, with the support of Boris Tadić, he called Vučić and Tomislav Nikolić political failures, after more than ten years Milorad Dodik is asking for forgiveness through verbal eulogies.
"President Vučić can be called Aleksandar the Unifier, because he united Serbs in a specific way," Dodik said in September last year at the opening of the Health Center in Stanari near Doboj, the construction of which was financed by Serbia. Support has not waned even during the student protests.
"Serbia needs stability, which will give Vučić the strength to attend international gatherings, and not to go to them wounded by the fact that there are protests in the streets," Dodik told the media in Serbia, condemning those who are trying to destabilize Serbia by blocking faculties and streets at a very sensitive geopolitical moment. He says that there is no one who could replace Vučić and that "he must use his strength now, to explain in Brussels and at international gatherings what is happening in Serbia."
Apathy
Even the citizens of Republika Srpska do not know what is actually happening in Serbia, except for what they can get through social media. Most media outlets, especially television stations with extensive coverage, give information about the protests in a pinch, just enough to put into context the statements of officials.
In this context, any rebellion in BiH, especially in RS, is extremely difficult to articulate, because the critical mass for anything has not existed for years, and the election results show the complete stunting of the political literacy of citizens.
"As for the rebellion in our country, it is difficult to articulate sincere rebellion and civil disobedience here. First of all, because almost every single protest that has taken place in our country has been abused and used by politicians for their own promotion. Let's just remember the protests over the murder of David Dragičević. The people are increasingly aware of this and find it difficult to agree to participate in any form of expressing dissatisfaction," says Mladen Bubonjić, a communications expert from Banja Luka. All of this, he claims, will be difficult to change.
"In principle, the people are to a significant extent apathetic and, by the boiled frog principle, brought to indifference. In such a situation, it is really difficult to animate citizens, which is an ideal situation for the ruling caste," concludes Bubonjić.
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