Kosovo holds parliamentary elections on Sunday, at a time when there is a chance to consolidate political stability and proactively shape relations with Serbia and other international partners, but also with uncertainty about the future engagement of the US in the region, the German Friedrich Naumann Foundation writes today.
The foundation, close to the liberal FDP party and part of the European Movement in Germany, writes that as a protecting power and part of the international KFOR force, the US is "irreplaceable in Kosovo, but that some important associates of Donald Trump have suggested that he does not really have any sympathy for the Kosovo cause."
In the 2021 elections, Prime Minister Albin Kurti's leftist-populist Self-Determination Movement won a landslide victory with 50,3 percent of the vote, writes the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
It is noted that since then, Kurti's government has implemented various measures that have stirred up both the domestic and international public, and that "the international community has sharply criticized the unilateral, forced closure of Serbian institutions, because the normalization of relations between the two countries should have been achieved through dialogue, not pressure."
"These measures, however, have increased Prime Minister Kurti's popularity in the country," the Foundation writes.
The elections are the ninth since Kosovo's independence in 2008 and the first since 2010 to be held on a regular schedule, as Kurti's government is the first to have managed to last a full term.
Voting is underway for 120 seats in the Kosovo Assembly, ten of which are reserved for the Serbian minority and ten for other minorities in Kosovo. 28 electoral lists with a total of 1.280 candidates will participate.
The Foundation recalls that Kosovo, with its population of less than two million, has a very young electorate, so 2021 Kosovo citizens have gained the right to vote since the 150.000 elections alone. The highest turnout in the elections was recorded among young people aged 18 to 21, at 57 percent, according to data from the electoral commission.
The analysis estimates that the tipping point in the elections could be the Kosovo diaspora, which makes up approximately five to ten percent of the electorate and can significantly influence the outcome of the elections.
The foundation writes that polls show that Kurti's Self-Determination can still count on 45 to 50 percent of the vote. The Democratic Party of Kosovo, which belongs to the liberal European party ALDE, could win 17 to 20 percent of the vote, while the conservative Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) could win 15 percent.
"A changing of the guard cannot therefore be expected, but there is a possibility that Self-Determination, which has so far ruled alone, will be forced to form coalitions," writes the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
The Atlantic Center assesses that Albin Kurti is a courageous, but also polarizing personality, and that he is praised as a reformist by those eager for rapid change, and criticized by others who believe that his policies undermine progress on the path to creating good regional relations.
"For many, he is a symbol of hope and progress, and for others, his hardline stances, especially on internal reforms, raise red flags for concern. And as voters head to the polls, Kurti's leadership and his vision remain at the center of the political debate in Kosovo, raising questions about the path forward for the country," writes the Atlantic Council's European Center.
"Kosovo's future crucially depends on its integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions, along with the election of the new European Commission and the chances that the appointment of the newly appointed special envoy (EU Peter Sorensen) offers for the normalization of the dialogue between Kosovo and Serbia. In addition, the potential change in priorities of the new US administration adds another layer of uncertainty," the Atlantic Council assesses.
The Council assesses that Kosovo's relations with the US, as it navigates in a changing global space, will play a key role in shaping the country's future, and that Kosovo's path to the EU depends on the outcome of these elections.
"If Kurti secures a new majority mandate, the country could face even more intense fire-fighting in Kosovo-EU relations, especially if US President Donald Trump abandons traditional American support and Brussels remains divided over EU enlargement," the Atlantic Council writes. "If the Self-Determination Party is forced to govern in coalition with the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK), there is some hope that Kurti's rhetoric could become more moderate, leading to greater openness to dialogue with regional and international partners," the Atlantic Council writes.
"At the same time, a grand coalition of PDK and LDK without Self-Determination would result in an unpredictable program and an unstable mandate. With the broad support Kurti enjoys, he would be a nightmare for a PDK or LDK prime minister as an opposition, similar to the position of some governments in Europe, for example France, Spain, or potentially Germany, where diverse political alliances struggle to maintain unity, sometimes at the expense of effective policymaking," the Atlantic Council concludes.
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