The first weeks of Donald Trump's second term have already confirmed the New York Times headline: "The Master Dealmaker is Back." And when it comes to foreign policy, it's also clear that Trump's "favorite deals" will remain his guiding principles. This means, for example, that Ukraine should continue to receive American military aid - if in return it grants the United States access to raw materials such as rare earth metals and lithium. Or the "takeover" of the Gaza Strip to create a "Middle Eastern Riviera" there.
Or the Trump classic: "Trump Tower" – only this time in Belgrade. After New York, Chicago, Manila and Istanbul, it would be the fifth "Trump Tower" in the world.
Richard Grenell and Jared Kushner
March 2024. The Serbian government, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Arab investors have struck a deal that, according to the New York Times, is worth half a billion dollars. The plan: the former General Staff building will be converted into a hotel complex with luxury apartments – plus a memorial to the victims of the 1999 NATO bombing, when that building was also hit.
The project was launched in 2012, but construction is only now set to begin. The fact that it finally got off the ground is largely due to Trump's closest advisor, Richard Grenell, who served as special envoy for the Balkans during his first term and is now the "special envoy for missions."
Grenell maintains close, even friendly, relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his Foreign Minister Marko Đurić, a former Serbian ambassador to Washington. Grenell received a medal from Vučić in 2023 for his “balanced approach” towards Kosovo, which Serbia still claims, 26 years after the end of the war.
Richard Grenell has repeatedly criticized Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. The day before Trump's inauguration, he met with Ramush Haradinaj, the former Kosovo Prime Minister and Kurti's political rival. Haradinaj later said, as reported by the KosovoOnline portal on Iksu, that it would be "not good for Kosovo" if Kurti remained in power. Kurti drew Grenell's ire in 2020 for rejecting a territorial swap between Kosovo and Serbia proposed by the American mediator.
Rod Blagojevic
Rod Blagojevich, the son of Serbian immigrants, has an unusual biography even by Donald Trump's standards. Last week, Politico magazine reported that Trump was considering appointing him as ambassador to Belgrade. Blagojevich was a Democrat who served as governor of Illinois until he was impeached in 2009 and sentenced to 14 years in prison for corruption three years later. After his impeachment in 2010, he appeared on Trump's reality show, Celebrity Apprentice.
Trump commuted his sentence during his first term, after which he was released in 2020. Since May 2024, when Trump was confirmed as a presidential candidate, Blagojevic, together with Grenell, has participated in the election campaign - especially in American Serb communities, where Trump enjoys strong support, as well as among nationalist Serbian politicians in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo.
In the spring of 2024, five American businessmen of Serbian origin attended a reception at Trump's Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, including Ranko Ristic, founder of Zastava Arms USA, the exclusive U.S. importer of weapons from the Serbian company Zastava Oruzje. Ristic says that on that occasion, Trump introduced Blagojevic as a "great friend" and "close associate." Ristic also said that he told Trump how Serbs in Bosnia had to defend themselves against 1991 mujahedin during the 1995-3.000 war.
Blagojevic was in Belgrade last week. During a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, he explicitly apologized for America's involvement in the Kosovo war and the 1999 bombing. "My country did something terrible to your country in the 1990s. It's no different than what Russia is doing in Ukraine...President Trump will work to improve relations between our countries," Trump's potential ambassador to Serbia told Vučić.
Blagojević harshly criticized Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti in the media, accusing him of carrying out "ethnic cleansing" of Serbs in Kosovo.
What do Danijel Server and Kurt Basuner - Balkan experts say?
Daniel Serwer, from Johns Hopkins University and former envoy to the Balkans under President Clinton, told DW: "Blagojević is the perfect man for Belgrade - a deeply corrupt politician, willing to do whatever Trump wants to rehabilitate him."
Although these changes from the US are favorable for Vučić, the mass protests that have been shaking Serbia since November have further intensified his radical rhetoric about Kosovo - likely to divert attention from internal problems.
Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Đurić recently called Kosovo “our southern province” in an interview with the Berliner Zeitung newspaper and claimed that Serbs in Kosovo are “constantly exposed to discrimination and harassment.” This was echoed by the Chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces, Milan Mojsilović, who told Večernje novosti that the Serbian armed forces are ready to “protect Serbs and other non-Albanians on the territory of our southern province.” Vučić, who previously called Kurti a “terrorist scum,” now described him on a show on Happy-TV as a “scoundrel” who “hates Serbs.”
Kurt Basuner, director of the Berlin-based think tank "Council for Democratization Policy", warns in a statement to DW that Greater Serbia aspirations threaten not only the territorial integrity of Kosovo, but also Bosnia and Herzegovina. The EU could respond to Belgrade's aggression against neighboring countries by "significantly increasing" the EUFOR (Althea) forces that protect peace in Bosnia - combat troops, says Basuner.
In this situation, the American "Balkans team", Grenell-Kushner-Blagojević - including a direct connection to the White House, would be a gift to Belgrade. The already unlikely improvement of relations between Serbia and Kosovo would become even more unattainable.
During the 2023 escalation, when Serbian forces attacked NATO and Kosovo security forces, and then concentrated troops on the border with Kosovo - only the personal intervention of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and enormous NATO pressure forced Serbia to withdraw its tanks.
Server and Basuener doubt that the US would now militarily stop Vučić's army. In addition, Server warns that the very discussion of the division of Kosovo or Ukraine - Serb separatists in Bosnia could incite similar actions.
"It would then be up to the Bosnians to react. And in Kosovo, the Javelin would then be the best defense," Daniel Server told DW. Without the delivery of these highly effective American anti-tank missiles, a successful defense against a Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is unthinkable.
Given the current security situation, the escalation of potential sources of conflict in the Western Balkans, surrounded on all sides by EU countries, is certainly becoming increasingly likely.
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