"This Wednesday, a court ruling is expected in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the consequences of which could seriously jeopardize the already fragile stability of this Balkan state," writes journalist Michael Martens in an article for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. He explains that the main defendant, Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska, is charged with disobeying the decisions of the international community's high representative, Christian Schmidt, who has the authority to pass laws by decree or to annul laws passed by parliaments in BiH.
The author also recalls that in July 2023, Schmidt, a former German Minister of Agriculture, additionally introduced punitive measures for disobeying the High Representative's decree, which provide for a maximum prison sentence of up to five years. "In doing so, he reacted to Dodik's attempt to systematically weaken the state of BiH, of which the RS is, from an international legal perspective, an integral part. In 2023, Dodik passed laws in the RS according to which the decisions and rulings of the Constitutional Court of BiH would no longer be valid in that entity. According to Schmidt's decree, which automatically gained the force of law, politicians or civil servants who are found guilty of disobeying the High Representative's decisions will be prohibited from holding positions financed from the budget."
The question is, however, who should arrest the RS president, if he is convicted," writes the German newspaper. "It is heard from Sarajevo that the 'State Investigation and Protection Agency' (SIPA) should do it. However, the director of SIPA, Darko Ćulum, is a Bosnian Serb, who is said in Banja Luka to be a loyal associate of Dodik. Ćulum was the head of the RS police for years before moving to the state agency in Sarajevo. Would SIPA, under the leadership of Darko Ćulum, really try to arrest Dodik, especially if it were to encounter resistance from the RS police," the author asks.
The German journalist recalls that this was a problem in a similar conflict between Dodik and Schmidt's predecessor, Valentin Inzko, in 2009 and 2010, and quotes Dodik: "'Bosnia is a monstrous state, an imaginary country that the international community keeps alive by force,' Dodik mocked at the time, mocking threats that he would be removed and saying that the international community has long since lost real power in BiH: 'What do they think they're going to do? Bring in tanks and ban me from entering the government building?'"
"Emperors without suits"
In this way, Dodik, as assessed in the article, pointed out a "sore point", that the High Representative, but also the European Union in BiH, are "emperors without suits", and their "soft power" is "more soft than powerful". This is even more true at this moment when Donald Trump has re-entered the White House, the author assesses. "Dodik can expect more understanding from the new administration in Washington. His contacts are good", writes the author and points out that the former mayor of New York and Trump's lawyer Rudy Giuliani arrived in Banja Luka this Monday.
The Frankfurt newspaper also mentions Dodik's threat that, if he is convicted, he will organize a referendum on establishing a confederation of RS with Serbia - with the journalist noting that Dodik has previously announced a referendum, but has never taken the decisive step to implement it.
"Previously, in such a case, he could have faced determined opposition, not only from the EU, but also from the US. Today, that cannot be said with certainty. The new American policy could shake up relations in the Balkans, especially since a referendum on the confederation of RS with Serbia would undoubtedly provoke a reaction from Sarajevo," writes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and concludes: "However, the final escalation on Wednesday may not occur, because Dodik could appeal if convicted. But that would only postpone the conflict - with an uncertain outcome."
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