Why did Brčko receive the status of a special district in BiH?
The Dayton negotiators could not agree on which entity would receive Brčko, which had been under the control of the Republika Srpska Army during the war. Therefore, the negotiating parties agreed that the decision on Brčko would be made in an arbitration process under international supervision.
In 1999, the Arbitration Tribunal for Brčko ruled that Brčko would be a district, under the “exclusive sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina” and with its own authorities.
The “Supervisor for Brčko” is responsible for implementing the decision. This is usually the Deputy High Representative in BiH, currently Louis J. Krišok. The Tribunal has left the possibility of changing the arbitral award if a party fails to comply with its provisions.
Why is Brčko "in focus" again?
Brcko has once again found itself at the center of political turmoil in BiH, after Republika Srpska challenged the jurisdiction of state institutions, including the Court and Prosecutor's Office of BiH, as well as the State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA). Condemning these moves by the RS authorities, which followed the Court of BiH's verdict against Milorad Dodik for disrespecting the decisions of the Constitutional Court of BiH and the decisions of the Cabinet of the High Representative, Supervisor Krišok warned that endangering the constitutional order of BiH could lead to a review of the arbitration award for Brcko.
"Any attempt to threaten the state order could have serious consequences for the status of the District and its special position within BiH," Krišok emphasized after talking with Clint Williamson, the presiding arbitrator of the Brcko Arbitration Tribunal.
Military-political analyst from Sarajevo Đuro Kozar points out that RS President Milorad Dodik is not giving up on the thesis that Brčko is the property of that entity. He tells DW that the Brčko District is part of sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina, and as it is on the tri-border of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia, it has great geopolitical significance for the region.
"The RS authorities want to separate that entity from BiH by unilaterally abolishing the powers of state agencies on the territory of RS, and then appropriating Brčko. If that were to happen, then the criminal ideology that the Republika Srpska Army implemented in Brčko would be rewarded," Kozar told DW.
What does a final arbitration award mean and who could change it?
According to Bodi Weber, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Council for Democratization Policy, "The final arbitration decision for Brčko still retains a clause that, in the event of a violation of the Dayton Agreement, it can be subsequently amended, including by assigning Brčko to one of the entities." Weber explains to DW that Brčko Supervisor Krišok "had good reason" to mention this "in the context of the unconstitutional decisions of the Government and the National Assembly of the RS", but adds that such a decision "could not be implemented without stronger EUFOR involvement."
Constitutional law expert from Mostar, Prof. Nurko Pobrić, points out that the decision on possible changes to the Final Arbitration Award could be made by the President of the Arbitration Tribunal for Brčko, Clint Williamson, but warns that "the international community has so far been insufficiently decisive in its reactions to the secessionist moves of the RS."
How was Brčko previously mentioned in the context of the secession of RS?
Brcko has previously been mentioned in the context of crises caused by secessionist threats from the RS and announcements of the abolition of state powers in the territory of that entity. Pro-Bosniak officials have therefore requested the deployment of additional EUFOR and NATO forces to the Brcko District.
"I call for the urgent deployment of EUFOR or NATO soldiers to the area of the Brčko District of BiH, as the most effective response to Dodik's war ideas about the secession of the BiH entity RS. This would preserve stability in BiH, the region and the European Union," wrote Denis Zvizdić, a member of the Collegium of the BiH Parliament, on social media in March 2024.
At the same time, Siniša Karan, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the RS, said that it was time to reconsider the need for international supervision of the District and the Arbitration Tribunal.
The district is located between two entities and practically divides the territory of RS into two parts, points out Hina journalist Ranko Mavrak. "By raising the issue of Brčko, the international community is sending Dodik a clear message: threatening peace in BiH could also put the status of RS in question. Theoretically, the district could be annexed to the Federation of BiH, and Dodik would have no way to prevent this, except by attempting armed resistance - which no one would tolerate, not even Aleksandar Vučić," Mavrak told DW.
What is the position of international actors and do they have the instruments to act?
BiH Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković believes that "open violations of the BiH Constitution by the RS authorities justify the urgent adoption of a final arbitration decision and stronger engagement by the international community."
"If unconstitutional laws are published in the Official Gazette of the RS, a new arbitration decision for Brčko must be made without delay," Konaković said.
Bodo Weber points out that the decision to change the status of the Brčko District would be difficult to implement without strong international support. "It remains an open question whether Krišok and Williamson would really decide on such a radical but correct move, or whether they would have the support of the Trump administration for this decision in the current political context," Weber points out.
DW's interlocutor warns that the issue of political will is crucial: "For years, the international community has not had a clear answer to Dodik's threats of secession. If it were to finally take a more decisive stance now, RS could face serious consequences, including economic sanctions and an increased military presence of international forces," says the German analyst.
Is highlighting Brčko putting pressure on RS and other actors in the crisis?
Threats from the RS to abolish state institutions could result in greater engagement of the international community in Brcko, which would be a strong signal to Dodik that red lines have already been crossed, assesses journalist Hine Mavrak, adding that "an increased EUFOR presence in Brcko could have a deterrent effect on destabilizing moves by the RS."
Goran Marković, a constitutional law professor from RS, sees Krišok's warning as pressure on RS. "It implicitly opens up the possibility that Brčko could be assigned to the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which would create a precedent for later changes to the Dayton Agreement," Marković told DW.
Prof. Nurko Pobrić concludes that the pressure from the international community does not necessarily have to be directed only at RS. "It is obvious that the statements of international officials come as a reaction to the actions of the RS authorities, but the question is how the crisis will develop further and what the response of key actors will be."
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