NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is visiting Sarajevo and Pristina. This shows how important the region is in times of tension, argues Frauke Zebas of the Foundation for Science and Politics in an author's article.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's visit to Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina comes amid rising transatlantic tensions. Frozen conflicts in the Western Balkans region threaten to escalate again.
Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg regularly warned of the danger of frozen conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. Now his successor, Mark Rutte, is visiting the two countries for the first time since taking office in October 2024.
On Monday (March 10), he will first travel to Sarajevo, and the next day to Pristina.
The visit takes place in an atmosphere of transatlantic rift, which poses an unprecedented challenge to the European security order – not least in the Western Balkans, whose unfinished transformation and integration into the EU represent a neuralgic point for the continent.
In Kosovo, KFOR forces have been securing peace and borders since the end of the war in 1999. International peacekeeping forces have also been deployed in Bosnia and Herzegovina since the Dayton Agreement, and have been led by the EU since 2004.
More than two decades after the end of the war, the withdrawal of European troops is not in sight – quite the opposite.
Since the beginning of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, the region has once again been in the spotlight, especially as the security situation has further deteriorated due to geopolitical changes in recent years.
Tense security situation
Since Dayton, Bosnia and Herzegovina has been divided into two entities, which have broad autonomy but are jointly governed at the state level. Republika Srpska, under President Milorad Dodik, who has pursued militant nationalist policies for years, has sought to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina – a move that has been sharply criticized internationally.
Dodik is under US sanctions, and in February, the first-instance verdict of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina sentenced him to prison and a six-year ban on holding political office. He does not recognize the verdict, and is supported in this by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
Dodik also maintains good relations with the Kremlin. On January 9th of this year, as every year, a parade of the Republika Srpska police forces was held in Banja Luka, with the participation of Serbia and Russia.
This marks the day when the Republika Srpska was proclaimed in 1992 – the then illegal secession was one of the turning points on the road to war in BiH. The Supreme Court of BiH has banned the celebration of January 9 as an official holiday.
Tensions in Kosovo
In Kosovo, the government in Pristina has been implementing a policy of introducing unique national symbols and institutions since 2021.
This former Serbian province, mostly populated by Albanians, declared independence from Serbia in 2008, a move that Belgrade has not recognized to this day. As a result, key public institutions, such as education and healthcare, particularly in the predominantly Serbian north, remain under Belgrade's control.
Serbian documents and dinars were used there, instead of the euro, which is the official currency in Kosovo.
When the government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti began to crack down on this practice, protests and blockades broke out in northern Kosovo, supported by radical nationalists from Serbia and official Belgrade.
During 2022, almost all Serbian MPs and civil servants in the police and judiciary resigned, and local elections in northern municipalities were boycotted twice in a row. In 2023, the EU adopted political and economic measures against Kurti's government.
In September 2023, a terrorist attack was carried out by Serbian militants near the Banjska Monastery in northern Kosovo, killing one Kosovo police officer and three attackers.
As a result, the presence of Kosovo security forces in the north has been significantly increased, checkpoints have been set up, and the import of goods from Serbia has been halted.
Due to all these events, interethnic relations have deteriorated more than ever in recent years. Vučić and Kurti are accusing each other, while at the same time blocking dialogue between the two countries under the auspices of the EU.
Fear of the withdrawal of American troops
In addition to these tensions, Brussels fears a possible withdrawal of the United States from Europe, including its contingent of about 600 soldiers in KFOR. Although European states have taken on an increasingly important role in regional stability since the Yugoslav wars, they have always depended on American support.
Although Rutte says he sees no reason to worry, this scenario cannot be ruled out given the increasingly harsh rhetoric of the new US administration under President Donald Trump. In addition, local nationalists like Dodik feel emboldened by Trump's leadership style and hope for his support.
For example, the first Trump administration supported plans for a territory swap between Kosovo and Serbia in 2018, which envisioned exchanging areas in Kosovo predominantly populated by Serbs for parts of Serbia dominated by Albanians.
US government officials and Trump's close associates, such as special envoy Richard Grenell, are criticizing Kurti and calling for the release of former President Hashim Thaci, who was indicted before the Special Court for Kosovo in The Hague by the same prosecutor who later served as a special investigator in the US for cases against Trump himself.
The Pentagon's deputy press secretary, Kingsley Wilson, recently wrote on X.com: "Make Kosovo Serbia again."
While NATO is focused on the conflicts in these two countries, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo are simultaneously crucial for the future European security architecture and NATO.
Therefore, international missions in these countries are also responsible for training local security forces. Both countries have diplomatic missions to NATO in Brussels and aspire to join the military alliance.
However, Kosovo – whose population overwhelmingly supports this goal – has not yet been recognized by four NATO members.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the authorities of Republika Srpska are blocking NATO membership. The same is true for the pro-Russian government in Serbia, while the other countries of the Western Balkans – Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia – are already NATO members.
Rutte's visit is a clear signal that NATO is closely monitoring the region and that its stability remains a high priority for Europe and its partners.
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