Belgrade is being described as a powder keg today, on the day of protests, but it is equally important how the Serbian president reacts today and tomorrow, Brent Sadler assesses in an editorial for today's Guardian, adding that in the atmosphere of anger over dysfunctional politics and accusations of corruption, Aleksandar Vučić is under scrutiny, both in Serbia and abroad.
From the streets of Belgrade, it has become impossible to ignore the cracks in President Aleksandar Vučić's authoritarian rule. After more than four months of mostly peaceful student-led protests, frustration with the regime has reached a boiling point, the author writes.
Describing how Serbia is preparing for a massive anti-government protest, as thousands of students and citizens gather to express their dissatisfaction with the authorities, Sadler adds that many citizens describe the Serbian capital as a city "under siege" as authorities implement drastic measures that critics say are designed to intimidate people and prevent them from attending demonstrations.
The state-owned railway company, Srbija Voz, has suddenly suspended all intercity trains, citing anonymous bomb threats as the official reason. There have also been reports of the cancellation of intercity buses to Belgrade, and even rumors that tractors and trucks have been set up as barricades on key roads leading to the capital, the author writes, adding that these unprecedented measures have drawn criticism, as many believe that the authorities are effectively shutting down Belgrade to quell the protest movement.
Despite these efforts, convoys of students and supporters from across Serbia are finding alternative ways to reach Belgrade. Many groups, undeterred by the authorities' tactics, have set out days in advance, on foot or by bicycle, determined to be part of what they see as a historic gathering.
At the same time, Western diplomats are calling on Serbian authorities to ensure the peaceful holding of the protests and the safety of participants, warning that any attempt to suppress the demonstrations could escalate tensions domestically and internationally.
In stark contrast to diplomats' appeals for calm, Vučić and his government are portraying today's protest as a powder keg about to explode. For days, officials have been threateningly warning that clashes are inevitable, even suggesting that protesters could attack police or try to forcefully storm parliament.
This constant repetition of alarmist rhetoric is used by the authorities as justification for a harsh response, with a massive police presence and pre-planned security measures across Belgrade. These actions not only raise tensions, but also send a clear message of intimidation, portraying the protesters as a threat to national stability, while reinforcing the authorities’ narrative of control.
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The trigger for all this was the deadly collapse of a concrete canopy at the renovated main train station in Novi Sad late last year, where 15 people died, Sadler writes, adding that it sparked mass protests across Serbia, becoming a symbol of something much deeper: a system in which corruption, inefficiency, and political cronyism are deeply rooted.
While allegations of widespread corruption are often difficult to fully prove, critics point to opaque state contracts, political patronage and a lack of accountability as worrying indicators. The judiciary is seen as compromised, the media is under constant attack and civil society is under pressure. In such an environment, protests are no longer just a reaction to individual problems – they represent a desperate call for a future free from the constraints of autocrats and their allies, it is assessed.
The unexpected wave of student discontent is not just about one incident – it reflects the deep frustration of a generation that feels abandoned and betrayed by the same political elite that has held power for too long. What we are now witnessing is an unprecedented new-age opposition movement, fueled by the creative use of social media, that is rapidly spreading its influence across Serbia's cities and villages, Sadler writes.
The scale and persistence of these protests are a sign that the country is at a turning point, with Vučić, once considered untouchable, now facing a genuine challenge to his rule. Yet despite widespread discontent, the West continues to maintain relations with the controversial Serbian leader under the pretext of keeping Serbia on the path to the EU.
And probably with good reason, Sadler writes. As flawed as Vučić's rule may be, there is no clear or viable alternative if his power were to weaken. The political opposition is fragmented, often more focused on internal conflicts than on presenting a unified vision for the future.
Yet the EU continues to work with Vučić as if he were a reliable partner, ignoring key issues that should be alarming. It turns a blind eye to his close ties to Vladimir Putin, the growing Chinese economic influence on Serbian infrastructure, and the fact that Serbian energy giant NIS remains majority-owned by Russian interests, despite EU sanctions.
This apparent contradiction in EU policy raises questions about the bloc's real commitment to its own values and long-term strategy in the region, especially when pragmatic alliances seem to take precedence over ideals of democratic governance and geopolitical stability.
On the one hand, the behavior of the Serbian authorities and the blockade measures project an atmosphere of impending crisis. On the other hand, the demonstrators – encouraged by moral support from abroad – remain steadfast in their commitment to non-violence.
While Serbia's relationship with Moscow can be seen as an attempt to strike a balance between its historical ties with Russia and its aspirations for EU and NATO membership, at the same time, the question arises as to what the government's real priorities are.
Under Vučić's rule, Serbia has witnessed growing authoritarian tendencies. Such moves only deepen doubts about his long-term priorities and intentions. If history has taught us anything, it is that ignoring the Balkans often leads to unexpected and far-reaching consequences, Sadler concludes.
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