Kosovo and two countries in the Western Balkans region that are part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Albania and Croatia, signed a declaration this week on deepening cooperation in the field of defense and security.
Without providing specific details, the defense ministers of the three countries said they would increase the interoperability of their armies through education, training and joint exercises, as well as engage in the fight against hybrid threats, but also coordinate Euro-Atlantic integration policies.
Serbia saw it as a step that "undermines regional stability" and as a threat to its "territorial integrity", while Kosovo said that the initiative should not be seen as a threat to anyone, but rather that it should be accepted as a message that the three states will be united in the face of any challenge or threat.
Security experts in Pristina and Belgrade do not see the declaration as a step towards forming a formal defense alliance, such as NATO.
What unites the three countries?
For Ramadan Ilazi, head of research at the Kosovo Center for Security Studies, the significance of this declaration lies in the fact that it came at a time when the unpredictability of existing security alliances in the world has increased.
He sees the initiative as a step towards strengthening alternatives or strategic alliances, for Kosovo to progress in terms of defense, as it still does not have a clear path towards NATO membership.
"I am not optimistic that this alliance marks the beginning of the creation of a formal defense bloc, but rather a new group of states in Europe that share the same concerns or the same interpretation of the security situation in Southeast Europe," Ilazi told Radio Free Europe.
Ilazi believes that NATO's peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, KFOR, but also the alliance itself, will be the umbrella for this cooperation, as he does not think that Albania and Croatia will act contrary to NATO's interests in the region.
A NATO official told Radio Free Europe that Albania and Croatia are constantly contributing to regional stability, including through KFOR. Asked about the new initiative, the official said the alliance "has taken note of it," but that it is up to the signatories of the declaration to say more.
Although it does not have the form of an international agreement, the initiative, with the political will of the parties, could lead to "soft political actions," believes Vuk Vuksanović, a security expert at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.
He told Radio Free Europe that Balkan cooperation was partly spurred by warnings of a possible reduction in "US commitment to NATO if Europeans do not invest more in their defence".
According to Vuksanović, in an environment where NATO is not withdrawing, but "weakening, it may happen that individual countries form informal groups for the purpose of cooperation."
Kosovo, Albania and Croatia have said the initiative could be extended to new members, although they did not name the countries. Serbia, however, has suggested that Bulgaria could be one of those countries. The Bulgarian government did not respond to a request for comment from Radio Free Europe.
Even if other countries are added, Ilazi does not think this group is heading towards creating a military alliance that embodies NATO principles, such as collective defense.
Why is Serbia opposing the initiative?
Belgrade has requested an explanation from Tirana and Zagreb regarding the intentions of the initiative, stating that Serbia "will not allow unilateral actions that could jeopardize our territorial integrity, the security of citizens and peace in the region."
The Kosovo Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Diaspora reacted, stating that this behavior by Serbia represents a new violation of the Brussels Agreement, "which clearly establishes that Serbia will not interfere with Kosovo's international relations."
Meanwhile, Croatia has announced that the time has passed when Zagreb asked Belgrade for permission to act and with whom to cooperate.
For Vuksanović, Serbia most likely sees this initiative as a "political provocation by Zagreb."
According to him, the government in Belgrade could use this development to divert attention from the political situation in Serbia and the protests that have been taking place there for several months.
Even Ilazi believes that Serbia's harsh reaction is simply a consequence of the involvement of Croatia, which fought a war for independence from the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
He, however, believes that the tripartite cooperation is driven by the same idea that Russia exerts a malign influence in the region, and that autocratic regimes in the region pose a threat to the stability of the Balkans – accusations that have also been repeatedly made by the Kosovo authorities.
While assessing that Kosovo would greatly benefit from the experiences of the two NATO countries, as well as from various trainings, Ilazi expresses skepticism regarding the implementation of the initiative, recalling the low level of implementation of previous agreements between Pristina and Tirana.
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