What happens to Kosovo if Europe changes focus?

NATO assures that this will not happen. An official from the alliance told Radio Free Europe that "NATO has long been committed to the security and stability of the Western Balkans" and that it will continue to contribute to this, including other commitments it may take on.

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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: Shutterstock
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

The idea of ​​a European mission in Ukraine has gained momentum in recent weeks, and if realized, it could redefine security priorities in Europe. But how would that affect NATO's presence in Kosovo? Less attention, more risk, is the assessment of some analysts.

While Europe debates sending troops to Ukraine, another front is at play - Kosovo.

With thousands of European peacekeepers in the country, could focusing attention and resources on the east make Kosovo more vulnerable?

NATO assures that this will not happen. An official from the alliance told Radio Free Europe that "NATO has long been committed to the security and stability of the Western Balkans" and that it will continue to contribute to this, including other commitments it may take on.

NATO's peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, known as KFOR, was deployed in the country after the end of the war in 1999. It currently has more than 4.600 troops, mostly European.

There has also been a peacekeeping mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina for decades, consisting of European forces. With 1.100 soldiers and 3.500 reserve forces, EUFOR has been supporting the country's institutions in maintaining peace since 2004, when it replaced NATO forces.

NATO chief Mark Rutte visited Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in March, and speaking to reporters in Pristina, he said that NATO's commitment to the region remains strong today.

He said that the possible sending of European troops to Ukraine could influence a reconsideration of the foreign military presence in the Balkans, but did not specify how or when.

"It is still too early to talk, because an agreement for peace in Ukraine or a ceasefire must first be reached before you can start maintaining it," Rute said.

Britain and France are leading efforts to assemble military forces that would be deployed in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

This comes after US President Donald Trump launched talks on a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, three years since the start of the Russian invasion.

"The United Kingdom and France are jointly planning security guarantees for Ukraine. We are working closely with partner countries and trying to create a coalition of the willing from Europe and beyond," said British Defense Minister John Healy.

Following a meeting of European leaders in Paris on March 27, French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that there was agreement to examine specific legal issues related to any European security force for Ukraine and that discussions would take place in three weeks.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the mission would not have been possible without the help of the United States (US), but that the US was cool to the idea of ​​any military role in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that NATO's presence in Ukraine would be unacceptable for Russia.

Some analysts, such as Tim Less, from the University of Cambridge's Centre for Geopolitics, do not expect the mission to be formed precisely because of these objections.

Instead, Les expects Europe to strengthen the states most concerned about the Russian threat, such as the Baltics, Poland, Romania or Moldova.

"And, if you consider that the Balkans are on the front lines to confront Russia, then I think we will see more militarization, especially Kosovo and Bosnia. But, if the first scenario happens, it would require some kind of reallocation of resources away from the Balkans, towards those other countries."

"In that case, a clear message would be sent to Serbia that there will be no opposition if it pushes its political goals," Les told Radio Free Europe's Expose program.

This opinion is shared by Hikmet Karčić, a research associate at the University of Sarajevo and author of the book "Torture, Humiliate, Kill: Inside the Bosnian-Serb Camp System".

"Redirecting attention could create gaps in security. Any violence that occurs in the region has the potential to spread from one country to another - to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia. We have seen that in the past. But in recent years, it has been the focus of the West, NATO, which has protected the region," says Karačić.

"In Kosovo, for example, the presence of foreign troops is the main reason why Serbia has not attempted to physically attack it, except almost two years ago in Banjska," says Karčić.

Jeta Losaj, a researcher at the Kosovo Center for Security Studies, expects the Balkan region to remain on Europe's radar.

This, according to her, is proven by the visit of the NATO chief to Kosovo, and previously to BiH.

"We don't know yet whether European forces will be deployed in Ukraine. But if such a decision is made, it would be expected that Europe would make its military forces available. We also saw a plan to allocate 800 billion euros for defense. I think that would include Kosovo," says Losaj.

Losaj suggests that Kosovo institutions remain in close communication with international allies - either with NATO as a whole or with its members.

He particularly appreciates the recent initiative for military cooperation between Kosovo, Albania and Croatia.

"This sends a message that Kosovo is ready to find ways, not only to strengthen its capacities, but also to rethink the current geopolitical situation," says Losaj.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who is seeking a new term in office, has pledged more than a billion euros in budget for security forces and reiterated that Kosovo will build its own ammunition factory and military drones.

Les, from the University of Cambridge, believes Kosovo must take two key steps to keep the attention of its allies.

"One is to actively lobby the West, promoting the idea that Serbia is a threat to it and must be contained. The other is to invest in its security, building up its army, building up weapons stocks and so on - in case it has to confront Serbia directly, without external help," says Les.

Karčić agrees that coordinated diplomatic and military strategies will be crucial in balancing simultaneous security challenges.

According to him, the West should help Kosovo strengthen its military and security capacities, including increasing cybersecurity, so that it can protect itself from potential threats.

He believes that BiH should be encouraged to overcome internal political divisions and take steps to strengthen its institutions and security capacities.

Karčić also believes that Russia would fill any potential vacuum left by the West.

"Russia, together with its supporters in Serbia and Montenegro, would ultimately try to prevent NATO expansion in this area, as well as its integration into the EU. It would also seek to destabilize NATO states in the Balkans, such as Montenegro. We have seen these efforts in previous years, especially with Montenegro and North Macedonia," he says.

"With the US administration signaling less involvement in European affairs, the Kremlin may feel less pressure for its actions, whether in Ukraine or the Balkans," says Professor Les.

"Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 was a kind of bombshell that exploded in international relations. Almost everywhere you look, you see some kind of Trump influence," he said.

Analysts argue that in an uncertain environment, the challenge for Kosovo and the Western Balkans is clear - to stay on the radar or risk remaining out of the geopolitical game.

But this requires a careful balance between domestic and international interests - something that is never easy, especially in a region like the Balkans.

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