There is nothing to suggest about a new parliamentary coalition in Bosnia and Herzegovina, at least for now, judging by the statements made by party representatives to Radio Free Europe (RFE) on the day a meeting on this topic was scheduled.
However, representatives of the ruling parties from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the opposition from Republika Srpska, at a meeting in Sarajevo on April 2, could lay the foundations of a new government, without Dodik's Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD).
The meeting will be attended by the "Troika" and Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) parties, which have formed the government at the state level for the past two years, as well as three opposition parties from RS - the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP), and the Justice and Order List.
They should discuss, as they say, further principles of action, such as BiH's European path and the normalization of relations.
At the same time, SNSD spokesperson and delegate to the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament, Radovan Kovačević, via the X network, accuses Serbs and Bosniaks from these parties of seeking "the annulment of the electoral will of Serbs."
The "Troika", consisting of the Social Democratic Party, Our Party and People and Justice, announced the termination of the coalition agreement with the SNSD at the BiH level on January 23, after the latter abstained from voting on two pro-European laws in the state Parliament.
A month later, Milorad Dodik, President of the RS and leader of the SNSD, was sentenced in the first instance to prison and a ban on political activity for disrespecting the High Representative's decisions.
Then the crisis in the country escalated further, as the authorities in RS led by the SNSD adopted a series of unconstitutional laws, including those that prohibit the work of state judicial and investigative institutions on the territory of that BiH entity.
Dragan Čović, the leader of the HDZ BiH and for many years a politician from the Federation of BiH closest to Dodik, distanced himself from the RS president with statements made in March.
About 10 days ago, Čović held a meeting with representatives of the opposition from RS, at which they discussed future cooperation.
SNSD, HDZ, and Troika formed a coalition at the BiH level in December 2022, shortly after the general elections.
What do the opposition in RS say?
In late January, opposition representatives in RS began considering the possibility of joining the government in Sarajevo.
Milan Milicevic, president of the SDS, tells RFE/RL that the announced meeting is "consultative" and that no coalition agreement will be signed.
"A continuation of what we talked about with the HDZ about strategic goals, and the goals are, roughly speaking, the European path of BiH, the adoption of necessary laws and the making of other decisions along that path, according to the commitments that have been undertaken," said Milicevic.
He adds that the priority will be protecting "the interests of RS", amending the electoral law, and that "difficult topics" will come later. Economic topics will also be discussed.
"A type of agreement on a differentiated VAT rate to improve the standards of residents when it comes to lower VAT rates for food products, medicines, baby equipment, etc.," explained Miličević.
He pointed out that any agreement reached should later be confirmed by party bodies.
The leader of the Justice and Order List and a member of the RS National Assembly, Nebojša Vukanović, hopes that the work of the Council of Ministers will be unblocked in April.
"That should be agreed upon now, that an agreement be reached at the meeting on the functioning of the Council of Ministers, the Parliamentary Assembly and other institutions in the coming period of a year and a half until the elections," Vukanović told RFE/RL.
He stressed that they are "interested in the fight against corruption, the rule of law and the rule of law."
"To normalize relations and normal functioning of institutions. To dedicate ourselves to life's issues, of which there are many, instead of wasting time on constant tensions produced by SNSD and Milorad Dodik, in order to divert attention from essential problems," said Vukanović.
The Trebinje politician is also a candidate for Minister of Security of BiH, and the initiative for this was submitted for procedure on March 18th.
If there are no delays, he estimates that a special session of the House of Representatives of the BiH Parliament on his appointment could be scheduled in about 20 days.
BiH is without a security minister, after Nenad Nešić was dismissed on January 28th, after he ended up in detention due to corruption.
'Political reality' in Bosnia and Herzegovina
The leader of the People and Justice party and the head of Bosnian diplomacy, Elmedin Konaković, said at a press conference on April 1 that this meeting was "the result of political reality in Bosnia and Herzegovina", and that everyone had realized that the moves of Dodik and the SNSD "are not taking the country anywhere".
"I expect that in a reasonable atmosphere of political reality we will understand that together with these people, whom I must again call brave, from the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, who are allowed to speak objectively about our European path, we will create a quick roadmap for future developments that primarily concerns fulfilling our obligations on the European path," said Konaković.
He warns that this process is at risk, as two more laws must be adopted and a chief negotiator with the European Union must be elected.
"I think that political actors, based on their statements and contacts so far, have the kind of maturity to bring this to an end, first of all by defining the priorities that we need to sign in a political agreement, and then by resolving personnel issues," Konaković believes.
The head of the SDP parliamentary group in the House of Representatives of the BiH Parliament, Saša Magazinović, told RFE/RL that he "wouldn't say" that any agreement would be signed at the meeting.
"I would like to be honest with you. It's not a rule that it should be at the first meeting," said Magazinović.
He pointed out that they have had the same demands from the beginning, the European path of BiH and the adoption of laws on that path.
The leader of the HDZ BiH, Dragan Čović, did not answer the phone.
Possible blocking of changes
Elvis Fejzić, a professor at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Sarajevo, told RFE/RL that the new coalition is the country's only political perspective.
"We see that the opposition from the RS entity is very interested in participating in this state government. What we are actually afraid of is whether it will be possible at all, given the rules of procedure of the House of Representatives and the House of Peoples, to elect representatives of the previous opposition in RS to this state coalition government without blockages in power," he said.
Fejzić assumes that all sides have their own conditions in negotiations over a new coalition.
"First of all, I am thinking of the HDZ's condition that is repeated every now and then regarding the new electoral legislation," Fejzić pointed out.
He also believes that the formation of the new Council of Ministers will take longer, given that there is a possibility that any personnel changes will be blocked by the SNSD in the House of Peoples.
"We are afraid of possible political blockages, because they have happened very often in the past, even regarding less significant matters in the functioning of the state government," said Fejzić.
The SNSD currently has three out of five delegates in the Serbian Club in the House of Peoples of the BiH Parliament, which allows them to block the adoption of new laws, as well as changes in the Council of Ministers.
Namely, their absence from the sessions means that there is no quorum for the work of that legislative body, given that at least three delegates from each of the three clubs must be present.
That is why the dismissal of SNSD ministers, Staša Košarac and Srđan Amidžić, who had already been dismissed in the House of Representatives, has been "stunned".
A debate on the dismissal of Aleksandar Goganović, Deputy Minister of Defense of BiH, Ognjen Janjić, Deputy Minister of Communications and Transport of BiH, and Marijana Mojić, Deputy Minister of Civil Affairs of BiH, is scheduled for Friday, April 4, in the House of Representatives.
All three deputies are from parties that are part of the coalition from RS, led by the SNSD.
Bonus video:
