Politics clearly had a hand in this case, so it is certain that both the Prosecutor's Office and the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina acted under pressure, journalist and political analyst from Banja Luka Željko Raljić told "Vijesti", commenting on the judicial process against the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik.
"So, we now have a non-final verdict and a repeated criminal offense, for which the judicial authorities are charging and seeking Dodik. It may sound strange, but I have the impression that he also has the support of a part of Bosniaks for what he is doing, and Croatian support is unquestionable, regardless of the official statements of political representatives. So, I think that the crisis in BiH has only just begun, if it ever ended after the war," said Raljić.
Regarding Interpol's decision not to accept the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina's request for an international arrest warrant for Dodik, Raljić says that it is not about obstruction, but rather standard protocol when making decisions.
Although the international police organization has not officially commented on this decision, Serbian Interior Minister Ivica Dačić stated that Interpol assessed that the request was not in accordance with Article 3 of the Interpol Statute, which prohibits interventions or activities of a political, military, religious or racial nature.
After the Court of BiH requested Interpol to issue a red notice on March 27, Serbia sent a protest note to Interpol in Lyon, citing the Interpol Statute.
The Court of BiH requested the issuance of an international arrest warrant for Dodik and the Speaker of the RS National Assembly Nenad Stevandić because they left or were leaving the territory of BiH after the central arrest warrant was issued for them, as they did not respond to a summons to be heard by the BiH Prosecutor's Office, which charges them with "attacking the constitutional order".
In addition to them, the BiH Prosecutor's Office is also charging RS Prime Minister Radovan Višković with the same criminal offense.
They are held responsible for the adoption of laws in the RS parliament that prohibit the work of the Prosecutor's Office and the Court of BiH, the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council of BiH (HJPC), and the BiH Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) on the territory of that Bosnian entity.
Is a new arrest warrant being prepared?
The Court of BiH will appeal the Interpol decision in the coming days because Dodik is avoiding summonses to the BiH Prosecutor's Office, the Sarajevo-based portal Raport announced yesterday, citing unnamed sources from the BiH judiciary.
In addition, Dodik is still being prosecuted for failure to implement decisions of the High Representative in BiH, and is listed as "unavailable to the Bosnian and Herzegovina judiciary" until the finality of the verdict of the Court of BiH sentencing him to one year in prison and a six-year ban on political activity.
The Bosnian Prosecutor's Office, according to the Sarajevo portal, maintains that this is not a political persecution, emphasizing that the first request to Interpol stated that the proceedings against Dodik were not being conducted due to the fact that he is the President of the RS and a politician, but rather because he is an official of an entity that violates the Constitution of Bosnia and Herzegovina and proposes and adopts extra-constitutional laws that prohibit the work of the judiciary on the territory of the RS.
According to the report, the Prosecutor's Office of Bosnia and Herzegovina is preparing a new arrest warrant, which, it is estimated, will not have any political implications. It concerns the criminal offense of "money laundering" in the "Dedinje villa" affair, in which Dodik is suspected of corruption.
Commenting on Dodik's visits to Israel and Russia at the height of the crisis, Raljić says that they can be considered his success.
"Both Israel and Russia at this moment have a reason to send a certain message to the West because of their well-known problems with them, so Dodik is useful for that. Hence the receptions at the highest level. However, this will not decisively affect the further course of the crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina, nor will it lead to its resolution. Will it benefit Dodik, who wants to be at the negotiating table instead of in detention, it will. So, these visits can even be considered a success for Dodik, regardless of how much benefit they will bring."
When asked whether he sees the stance of Serbia and President Aleksandar Vučić towards Dodik as distancing, tactical neutrality or tacit support for his policies, Raljić assessed that there is obviously no distancing or neutrality, which clearly indicates some kind of support.
"Complaint to Interpol, calls for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, therefore, silent support."
The High Representative's days in BiH are numbered.
Asked what the real influence of the international community (European Union, United States, Office of the High Representative in BiH-OHR) is in this situation and whether we can expect increased pressure on Dodik and the RS institutions, Raljić replied:
"It seems to me that the OHR is living its last days in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its continued stay would be pointless, because so far it has not shown that it can keep things under control. Kristijan Šmit has offended Serbs, Bosniaks and Croats with his decisions. So, he acted contrary to the proclaimed goals. After all, that could be part of the settlement, if things are resolved through political negotiations, and they will. If not publicly, then behind the scenes."
He pointed out that the EU has never had a consistent position, nor has it managed to play the role of patron in BiH, and that the US is silent for now, "which does not mean that there is no plan."
Raljić believes that there are no conditions for a deeper crisis and destabilization in terms of armed conflicts in BiH.
"Although the new laws prohibit the work of the State Investigation and Protection Agency of BiH on the territory of Republika Srpska, it continues to operate unhindered and cooperates with the RS Ministry of Interior in police operations."
Raljić says that in the current circumstances, the possibility of secession of Republika Srpska is not realistic.
"There are no technical conditions, nor political ones. In the end, Milorad Dodik's sincere intentions are questionable. If you ask me, it's a political stunt."
Asked whether a change in American policy towards BiH could be expected, Raljić said that the US does not change its policy so easily.
"Today's BiH is an American construct, from the period when that country was at the peak of its power. It is unlikely that the US's attitude towards the Balkans, not just towards BiH, will change so quickly."
Speaking about the current mood among the citizens of BiH and RS, Raljić assessed that there is a certain disinterest, because they are used to such crises.
"In the beginning there was fear of uncertainty, but now they have accepted that this is just another in a series of permanent political crises in BiH. It is much harder for those who work in the judicial and security structures."
Vučić: The situation is getting out of control
The President of Serbia stated in Sofia yesterday that the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, thanks to the poor reaction of the international community, is "slowly but surely getting out of control", reported the Beta agency.
"I'm not sure where this is going next, it's clear that Bosniaks see this as their opportunity for the second half and the removal of Serbs as a 'disruptive factor' and essentially want the abolition of Republika Srpska with all its competencies and prerogatives of government, although they won't say so," Vučić told reporters in Sofia after the Akaba Process meeting on the Balkans, at which the situation in BiH was one of the topics.
He added that he is even more concerned that in talks with representatives of the EU and NATO and certain countries he has realized that no one wants a compromise "but a final showdown with Milorad Dodik and they want, although they will not confirm it, that RS has no competences."
He said that other countries would follow the decisions of Germany and Austria to ban Dodik from entering, assessing that this only makes the situation more difficult.
On Thursday, it was confirmed that Germany and Austria had banned Dodik, Stevandic and Višković from entering due to their policies "which are moving in a secessionist direction."
Regarding the information that proceedings have been initiated against Dodik for the "villa case" in Dedinje, in Belgrade, Vučić said that he did not want to comment on the work of the Prosecutor's Office for Organized Crime at this time, but added that "it is interesting that the requests to the police, the UKP and the SBPOK for the interrogation of Milorad Dodik on the basis of international legal assistance have arrived at this very moment."
He added that "Serbia will not participate in the persecution, arrest of Milorad Dodik or anything similar."
Dodik allegedly bought a villa in the Belgrade neighborhood of Dedinje on May 14, 2007, for 750.000 euros, claiming at the time that he paid for the property with money from a loan at the Bijeljina-based "Pavlović Banka", only to later reveal that he had taken out that loan a year later, on June 27, 2008.
It was determined that he had the loan application certified with the seal of the RS Government, which he headed at the time.
Dodik paid the money for the purchase of the villa through the Commercial Bank in Serbia, but for years Serbia refused to provide the BiH judiciary with the original contract with that bank.
Dodik did not respond to the invitation from the Prosecutor's Office of BiH to be questioned in this case on April 2, so prosecutors, as reported by the Raport portal, have therefore decided to request a new arrest warrant and order his arrest.
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