While Europe's attention is focused on Ukraine, tensions are simmering in the Western Balkans, and leaders in the region, as well as in Britain, fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use the moment to further deepen divisions in the former Yugoslavia. Senior British government officials have described the Western Balkans as a "second flashpoint," and as tensions rise, Britain is pushing for all six countries in the region to join the European Union to fend off Russian influence, writes Brussels-based portal Politiko.
"At this moment when we have a war in Europe and when we see the long arm of Russian interference in this region as well, it would be a fool to look away from the Western Balkans where there are still unresolved issues from the past," British Foreign Secretary David Lammy told Politico during a visit to the region last week.
"Putin's interests here are to keep the region destabilized. It is in his interest to keep the countries that make up the Western Balkans in limbo, to keep the population unstable, and to wage cyber and hybrid warfare."
Foreign policy experts and ministers fear that the Kremlin will try to exploit deep-rooted ethnic and religious tensions to foment new unrest across the Balkans, entrench Russian interests and cause further problems in the EU's backyard, Politiko reports.
“They have to move forward at this point, otherwise it will continue to be a Russian playground,” said one British official who asked not to be named. There is now “a fairly tight timeframe” in which Balkan states must make a clear commitment before Brussels fully commits to Ukraine’s accession, he said.
Lami believes that Serbia, despite its democratic backsliding, rapprochement with Russia, and persistent refusal to recognize Kosovo, truly wants to join the EU.
“But there are different views on how to get to that goal, how quickly and with how much seriousness,” Lamy said during an interview in Belgrade. “And there is an alternative vision, and it is a darker vision. It is a view that relies on oligarchy, corruption, strong state control, many more elements of a police state.”
"Politiko" writes that the enormous obstacles that Serbia must overcome in order to join the EU are clearly visible on the streets of Belgrade and that "the increasingly authoritarian government led by President Aleksandar Vučić is facing a serious challenge in the form of a wave of protests the likes of which Serbia has never seen before."
Lami told Politiko that “we stand with the people,” before raising the issues of the protests and allegations of the use of sound weapons at a meeting with Vučić on April 2. He was in Belgrade to sign a series of agreements with the dual goal of curbing illegal migration and bringing Serbia closer to the West.
However, from the statement he gave to reporters, it was clear that Vučić did not take the criticism kindly. “It does not occur to me to comment on the protests and demonstrations in the UK, because I respect the sovereignty of the UK,” the Serbian president said.
Vučić also denied that force or acoustic weapons were used against the protesters, and strongly defended Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik after Lami referred to his “unconstitutional” actions during an address to the media.
The Brussels portal writes that the protesting students have the impression that Brussels is turning a blind eye to the endemic corruption they condemn, while the EU is simultaneously trying to win Vučić over to its side and secure access to lithium deposits in Serbia.
Lamy summed up the fact that Serbia's leadership is pushing for EU membership while still maintaining close relations with Russia and China in the sentence: "The paradox is alive here."
The British Foreign Minister began his visit to the region in Kosovo, where he was given a warm welcome.
In an interview with "Politiko", Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani described Serbia as their "crazy hegemonic neighbor".
The Brussels portal writes that Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti has long warned that the "threat of a new war" is real, citing Serbia's increasingly intensive cooperation with what President Osmani calls the "triangle of evil" - Russia, China and Iran. Vučić, on the other hand, often repeats warnings about a possible new conflict in the region, claiming that Kosovo is treating the Serbian community unfairly.
Lamy visited the KFOR camp in Kosovo, where British soldiers told him they believed Russia was supporting Serbian activities in Kosovo, including through intelligence operations. Politiko reports that this was confirmed by a senior official in Pristina.
Osmani claims that Serbia interfered in the recent general elections in Kosovo, that the “Serbian-Russian Humanitarian Center” on the border with Kosovo is actually a “Russian spy center,” and that Moscow has tripled its funding for disinformation campaigns in the Western Balkans since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine.
She says the United States, even under the Donald Trump administration, is a reliable ally, but warns that if Putin emerges strengthened from the Washington-led peace talks with Ukraine, the Balkans could become "fertile ground" for the "spillover" of that conflict.
“If these destabilizing autocrats can do whatever they want... things can escalate very, very quickly in this region,” Osmani says. “That’s why prevention and deterrence are key, and we must not allow Putin to achieve his plans. Vučić has been playing Putin’s game for too long. It’s time for him to finally decide where he wants to take his country.”
The President of Kosovo sharply criticized what she called the "active policy of appeasement" by unnamed actors in the EU, whom she accused of continuing to financially assist Serbia despite growing tensions.
"Politiko" writes that Bosnia and Herzegovina has been plunged into crisis as the leader of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, evades arrest for his separatist policies.
The US and Britain have imposed sanctions on Dodik in recent years, but there are those who are seeking to go a step further, such as Arminka Helić, a refugee from the wars in the former Yugoslavia, who is now a member of the British House of Lords.
“We have imposed some sanctions, but they are not devastating,” said the former government foreign policy adviser. She also lobbied ministers to send troops to the European Union peacekeeping mission in Bosnia.
Lami does not rule out the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Dodik, but he declined to comment on specific measures, stating only that "they are constantly under consideration."
One of the catastrophic scenarios that Helić sees is that Dodik, by presenting himself as a politician "far right of the right" and as a victim of a "great conspiracy of the left," could succeed in persuading Trump to recognize the independence of RS.
Russia's influence is spreading like an invisible infection
Helena Ivanov, an associate at the Henry Jackson Society think tank, warned that the EU cannot "afford to lose" Serbia, given the current geopolitical circumstances, because, as she says, this could cause a chain reaction of problems throughout the region.
“If you go back to the time of Yugoslavia, if someone had paid more attention to what was happening here in the 1980s, I think things could have turned out very differently. I think the West faced the reality of what was happening in Yugoslavia, too late and not enough,” Ivanov said.
"And I wonder if something very similar could happen now, not in the sense that war will break out, but that we wake up again to the reality that Russian and Chinese influences are so deeply rooted in this country that the response will be too little, too late."
Helić agrees that the West pays too little attention to the region, and sees the cause of this in Russia's gradual and imperceptible penetration.
"It's like a disease, because it develops slowly and invisibly. It's not a cut, it's more like a slow-spreading infection and contagion," she said.
Like Ivanov, Helic believes that the danger could suddenly become apparent to outside observers if Putin is allowed to achieve his goals, but perhaps only when it is too late.
"The situation could worsen overnight, because this is a process of dismantling state institutions that has been going on since 2006, everything we achieved after the wars of 1995," said Helić.
"Russia does not want a stable Balkans because it is a constant, ongoing toothache for the West, and that suits Russia perfectly."
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