An arc of discontent is running through Southeast Europe. From Slovakia and Hungary, through Serbia and other Balkan countries, all the way to Turkey and Georgia, the region has been rocked by protests for months, writes The Economist.
The reasons for taking to the streets vary from country to country, as does the intensity of discontent. However, it is no coincidence that this arc encompasses countries led by leaders with autocratic tendencies within the framework of formal democracy, the British newspaper states.
"Many of these hardliners fear the streets more than the ballot box, especially if they want to extend their already long tenure in power. The outcome of the protests depends on what is expected of them," the analysis says.
Those hoping for a repeat of the “color revolutions” of the 2000s, which toppled repressive regimes in Ukraine and Georgia, are likely to be disappointed as today’s leaders weather the tide of discontent. Those with more modest ambitions, to keep politicians at least somewhat honest and remind them that impunity has a price, may still be pleased with the outcome, The Economist points out.
Serbia is the most restless point of that arc, the weekly assesses, recalling that on March 15, around 300.000 people marched in Belgrade, which is an "astonishing figure" for a country with a population of 6,5 million.
Citing the death of 16 people in the collapse of a canopy at the Novi Sad railway station as one of the causes of public anger, "Ekonomist" writes that the accident pointed to a combination of corruption, government incompetence, and state capture.
Citizens' demands for greater institutional accountability are a fairly clear message to Aleksandar Vučić, who has practically ruled the country since 2012, the newspaper points out.
The Economist recalls that a nightclub fire in North Macedonia last month sparked similar anger. In Turkey, on March 19, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who had the best chance of challenging Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2028 presidential election, was arrested. In Georgia, protests have been ongoing since October, when the opposition accused the elections, which were won by an anti-Western faction, of being rigged. Meanwhile, many Hungarians and Slovaks are fed up with the pro-Russian governments led by Viktor Orban and Robert Fico, which have made them unacceptable partners for many in the European Union.
Despite the enthusiasm of protesters from Istanbul to Bratislava, a dramatic overthrow of the regime seems unlikely, the British newspaper estimates. Experienced autocrats know well how to neutralize public anger. Vučić has carefully allowed protesters to express their dissatisfaction without brutal police intervention, although the probable use of the so-called "sound cannon" (which the authorities deny) to disperse the crowd has further angered the demonstrators. Promises of change, including the dismissal of the prime minister and the formation of a new government, may have somewhat tempered the ardor of the protests, estimates the "Ekonomist".
The EU is holding back on criticism for fear of pushing potential allies straight into Moscow's arms.
Erdogan, on the other hand, played down the protests through his servile media. Orban motivated his voters by stirring up culture wars: on April 14, the Hungarian parliament voted for a constitutional amendment banning gay pride parades.
Vučić, according to the "Ekonomist", claims that he is thwarting a "color revolution", allegedly financed from abroad. In reality, the anger is a homegrown product, the newspaper writes, pointing out that Serbia is undergoing a democratic regression - a partial decline into autocracy.
"In fact, Westerners, who are usually ready to stand by such protests, have been conspicuously absent this time when it comes to supporting those who oppose the hardliners. Russia has a strong influence in this part of Europe, so the EU has refrained from criticism for fear of pushing potential allies straight into Moscow's arms. Vučić is helping to keep peace in the Balkans, and Serbia has the lithium that Europe needs for a green transition," writes The Economist.
Erdogan, on the other hand, is helping to contain the migrant crisis that threatens Western European countries, and is largely getting away with it. As for America, Donald Trump's family is building a hotel in Belgrade, the analysis states.
That is discouraging for some, but not for those who continue to march in the streets of Serbia. “Regime change is not the only way to end this positively,” said Milena Mihajlović of the Center for European Policy in Belgrade.
“Some revolutions take a roundabout route,” writes The Economist. When the protests began, young people were thought to have little interest in the politics of a country from which, after all, many were already thinking about leaving, said Slobodan Marković from the Faculty of Political Sciences in Belgrade. Today, however, they are deeply interested in the future of the country, dissecting the functioning of institutions from the courts to the state media. If that is not revolutionary, what is?, the analysis concludes.
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