Balkans expert Vedran Džihić stated that the participants in the Protest in Serbia are mostly pro-European, but that they condemn the European Union for its compromises and deals with the regime of Aleksandar Vučić, and that by going to Strasbourg and Brussels they want to achieve that the European institutions also take a decisive stance.
"In that case, the credibility of the EU in Serbia would grow again and strengthen Serbia's integration into Europe in the medium and long term. And the positive attitude towards the EU could also increase after the fall of Vučić because this nationalist's attitude towards Europe seems pragmatic, but he discredits it in his nationalist narrative," Džihić told the daily Frankfurter Rundschau (FR).
Džihić, a senior researcher at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs in Vienna and the Balkans in Europe Public Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), said that in these narratives "Vučić insults Germany and the West" and assessed that after Vučić, Serbia could "very quickly return to the path towards full EU membership."
He also said that Vučić has a completely unambiguous nationalist past, that he made his career in the repressive regime of Slobodan Milošević and was a long-time member of the "ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party". Vučić presents himself as "the great father of the entire Serbian nation, the protector of true Serbianness, whose enemies are, for example, Kosovo Albanians, Croats or Bosnian Muslims. We know this from other right-wing nationalist circles in Europe", said Džihić.
Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party is, according to Džihić, a distribution machinery, into which people from the economy, science and intellectual media circles have been "co-opted", and Vučić himself is very skillful in geopolitical tactics between global actors such as Russia, China, the West, the USA, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Arab states.
Džihić repeated his earlier assessment that the opposition in Serbia is very fragmented and does not have enough strength to bring about major changes, and that the protests come from a truly genuine initiative of the people.
When asked about the suggestion that the Vučić supporter movement also appears to be strong, Džihić said that Vučić is not only dominating public discourse through loyal regime media.
"There is also a regime mobilization of the so-called alternative civil society. They simulate protests organized by the state," said Džihić, citing as an example that people dependent on the regime were brought by bus from the interior to regime rallies, who were "threatened with losing their jobs."
Vučić himself, Džihić said, had previously spoken about the alleged color revolution managed by the liberal-democratic West, through the alleged "deep state", and expected that sending regime thugs recruited "from criminal and fan circles" and using a sound cannon would create chaos that would justify police intervention and the declaration of a state of emergency, "but the students reacted very wisely".
"Fortunately, there is still a functional civil society. Competitive-authoritarian regimes like those in Serbia, Hungary or Turkey use fear, repression and pressure. That way they can do whatever they want. But many in Serbia have stopped being afraid - also because of the student protests. People are now observing the ongoing processes without fear and talking about it. Something is happening...", said Džihić, warning that the fact that people have stopped being afraid does not automatically mean the end of regime repression.
He explained that such competitive-authoritarian regimes, unlike classic authoritarian regimes, allow for the existence of certain parts of an open society, and do not completely stifle civil society. "Vučić is taking care that the international image of the state is not completely ruined. For Serbia, the relationship with the West is of essential importance. The regime is trying to create legitimacy," said Džihić.
"Vučić now has two options, to give in to pressure, which he will not do, or to increase repression. In this so-called Belarusian model, the regime exerts stronger pressure on civil society, orders the police to interrogate people, organizes lumpenproletarian beating units and tries to preserve power through increased use of force. This is how (Alexander) Lukashenko established a dictatorship in Belarus after fraudulent elections. We have not yet reached that point in Serbia," said Džihić.
Džihić answered affirmatively when asked whether Vučić's goal was to remain in power at all costs.
"In the past 13 years, he has personally taken over complete power. The parliament, the judiciary, the government - they are all puppets. He is a classic despot with a pathological obsession with power, he has put a sign of equality between himself and the Serbian people. This already has a messianic dimension. But, without power, Vučić cannot survive. Namely, as with other regimes, his fall from power or loss of functions could mean arrest, if a court trial for corruption and other criminal offenses were to occur," said Džihić.
"The tests are now also a test of how Europe will position itself towards them. I have the impression that awareness is slowly emerging in Berlin, France, Austria, Scandinavia and among many MEPs. This is also somewhat noticeable in some of the tones that can be heard from the European Commission," said Džihić.
"And the protest actions in Serbia could encourage pro-European and pro-democratic forces in Europe to enter into stronger alliances. Because the EU is ultimately facing one of the biggest turning points in its existence. It has to make a decision," said Džihić.
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