Dodik's family negotiated his departure from Bosnia and Herzegovina

The family of Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik has contacted a senior Western official in recent months to negotiate the terms of his departure from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).

This was reported by the British "Guardian", stating that there are signs of Dodik's political weakening.

On February 26, the Court of BiH convicted Dodik in the first instance for failing to implement the decisions of the High Representative in BiH, Kristijan Šmit, sentenced him to one year in prison and banned him from holding the office of President of the RS for six years from the date the verdict became final.

BiH officials and foreign diplomats in Sarajevo have confirmed allegations in the Hungarian press that paramilitary units of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban were in Banja Luka with the aim of extracting Dodik in case he finds himself in a hopeless situation and has to flee.

The Hungarian Center for Investigative Journalism VSquare previously published an extensive article about how special forces from that country were secretly deployed to RS at the end of February, with the aim of enabling the rapid extraction of Milorad Dodik via Croatia to Hungary in the event of a conviction by the Court of BiH.

They stated that this did not happen because, although Dodik was sentenced to prison, he was not arrested and was given the opportunity to appeal. Another reason is that the plan was also discovered by world powers monitoring the situation in the region.

The cover for the presence of Hungarian forces was a joint exercise and training with the local police.

It is not certain that Dodik will choose exile. Instead, he could continue to defy the verdict and the international community, trying to stay in power with the support of his paramilitary police.

Journalist Sabolc Pani from VSquare last month published details regarding the alleged plan to extract Dodik.

According to him, the operation involved TEK - an elite unit of the Hungarian police specializing in counterterrorism and high-risk operations, led by János Hajdu, Viktor Orban's former security chief.

"European Union security officials told me that the United States knew from the beginning what TEK was doing. The Americans immediately informed Croatia. According to sources, the Croatian authorities were seriously preparing to prevent Dodik from illegally crossing the border and were ready to arrest him and, if there was an escalation, TEK members," Pani said.

One official European source said: "This would be a serious escalation with potentially unpredictable consequences."

Pani said that Hungary was “playing with fire” and that TEK’s action could have caused a real security crisis. When asked how angry the Americans were, a Hungarian official replied: “Very much.”

According to the Guardian, Milorad Dodik's departure is still being considered as a possible option, and his family recently contacted a senior Western official to negotiate the terms of that scenario.

However, the newspaper states that it is not certain that Dodik will choose exile. Instead, he could continue to defy the verdict and the international community, trying to stay in power with the support of his paramilitary police. For BiH itself, such a situation poses a serious risk, the newspaper estimates.

Dodik said he would not appeal the verdict because he does not recognize the jurisdiction of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina, but added that he could not prevent his lawyers from doing so. His lawyers have filed an appeal, and a hearing is expected in the coming months.

The Guardian assesses that the verdict and Dodik's reaction mark the moment in which years of political instability in BiH are escalating into a serious crisis that could divide Europe.

It is also alleged that Orban, under pressure, would rather side with Russian President Vladimir Putin and allies like Dodik than with Brussels.

Dodik traveled to Moscow on Tuesday, his third trip since March. Yesterday, after meeting with Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu, he stated that Russia is monitoring the situation in RS and understands, as he stated, the pressure that the leadership of that entity in Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing.

Dodik, who participated in the International Conference of High Representatives for Security Affairs in Moscow, stated that Shoigu told him that relations between RS and Russia are "very good and at a strategic level," Radio-Television RS reported.

"Russia is very closely monitoring the situation in RS and understands that the pressure that the leadership is under is very difficult for us, but they believe that we can overcome these problems," Dodik said.

Political analyst Jasmin Mujanović said that this is the most dangerous moment for BiH since 1995, and that the crisis can only end with Dodik's arrest or escape.

If the verdict is upheld, there could be new elections in RS and a victory for the pro-European opposition, with the possibility of a more determined attempt to arrest and seek assistance from EUFOR.

Members of the BiH Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA) attempted to arrest Dodik in East Sarajevo in April, but were prevented from doing so by members of the RS Ministry of Internal Affairs.

A central arrest warrant has been issued for Dodik, as well as for the Speaker of the RS National Assembly Nenad Stevandić and the Prime Minister of RS Radovan Višković, because they did not respond to the state prosecutor's summons to be questioned on suspicion of having committed an "attack on the constitutional order of BiH."

The BiH Prosecutor's Office holds them most responsible for passing laws that ban the Court and Prosecutor's Office of BiH, the High Judicial and Prosecutorial Council (HJPC), and SIPA from operating in the territory of the RS. The Constitutional Court of BiH struck down these laws on March 7.

The RS authorities decided to adopt the controversial laws after the Dodik verdict on February 26th.

According to the Guardian, a ruling on the appeal is expected by the end of the year at the latest, and possibly during the summer. If the ruling is upheld, the ban on holding office will come into effect, which could lead to new presidential elections in RS and the eventual victory of an opposition coalition willing to cooperate across ethnic lines and renew BiH's European integration process.

This could also mean that a new, more determined attempt to arrest him will be launched, and BiH could request at least symbolic assistance from EUFOR, according to the Guardian.

"The only unknown is whether Dodik will accept the verdict and leave the presidential palace or will he refuse to step down? I don't think anyone knows what he will do," said Igor Crnadak, former BiH foreign minister and senior official of the opposition Party of Democratic Progress.

Christian Schmidt, former German minister and current High Representative in BiH, said that for now this is a political, not a security, crisis.

“How do we resolve this kind of challenge without escalation? I think a lot of diplomacy and behind-the-scenes talks are needed for now,” Schmidt said, but added: “I don’t see Dodik fulfilling the conditions to be a responsible member of the political leadership of this country.”

The Guardian states that the EU's reaction remains limited and that Hungary has so far blocked sanctions against Dodik, with the help of Croatia.

Yet financial pressure is mounting: the US, UK, Germany, Austria, Poland and Lithuania have individually imposed punitive measures against him.

The British newspaper writes that Dodik's hope that Donald Trump's return to the White House would lead to a quick lifting of US sanctions has not been realized, as the new administration shows very little interest in BiH.