The withdrawal of Republika Srpska (RS) President Milorad Dodik from politics is one of the options for exit strategies from the political crisis in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), announced the Sarajevo-based portal Kliks (Klix.ba).
"This is also related to the upcoming second-instance verdict awaiting Dodik in the case for disrespecting the rulings of the High Representative in BiH," the analysis states.
The text states that a narrative has emerged in the public space in BiH that Dodik has reached a political agreement with judicial institutions at the state level, as indicated by his unannounced appearance at the headquarters of the judiciary in Sarajevo on Friday, July 4, after a three-and-a-half-month escape, i.e. the inability of the state police to apprehend him.
The Court of BiH then lifted Dodik's detention, which had previously been ordered for him because he failed to report to be questioned at the BiH Prosecutor's Office on suspicion of having committed the criminal offense of attacking the constitutional order of BiH, due to the adoption of a series of laws in the RS parliament, which prohibit the work of state judicial and police institutions on the territory of that BiH entity.
Easy acceptance of amnesty for both Dodik and SNSD's policies could be a big deception and a white lie for the politically naive
The analysis by Kliks estimates that the second-instance verdict against Dodik will "remove all doubts about whether there was any agreement," in the case in which he was sentenced in the first instance to a year in prison and a six-month ban from holding the presidential office.
"It is precisely this second part of the sentence that is the biggest problem for Dodik, because it would disqualify him from political life," the analysis states.
Kliks further states that the question arises as to whether Dodik, in a potential agreement with the judiciary, with some moderation by key actors in the international community, agreed to even step down from the leadership of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) and politics in general, and to be replaced at the helm of the party by Serbian member of the BiH Presidency Željka Cvijanović, as previously reported by the Istraga portal.
The analysis also mentions the dissatisfaction of Dodik's son Igor, who allegedly does not accept Cvijanović taking over the party.
"But, essentially, what is the difference between Cvijanović or Dodik Jr. or anyone else? Dodik's formal withdrawal from politics would mean nothing in a practical sense, but only in a symbolic sense," the text states.
Even if Dodik were to withdraw from politics, it added, in exchange for being amnestied in all cases and proceedings, in practice this "means nothing".
"Dodik could continue to pull all the political strings in the background. He could determine personnel decisions, dictate policy, with the key performers being others. And in the lee of politics on the ground, he could continue to present himself as the man who is the brains of the operations," the analysis states.
The text concludes that "easily agreeing to amnesty for both Dodik and the SNSD's policies could be a big deception and a white lie for the politically naive."
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