China expands influence through military cooperation with Serbia

The announced exercise between Serbian and Chinese military units should not be interpreted as a tool for controlling internal unrest, but as part of China's strategy to expand security ties through training and partnerships. Serbia sees this as an opportunity to balance relations with major powers, while China invests in long-term ties with the security structures of smaller states to project power and influence.

This was stated for "Vijesti" by Vuk Vuksanović, senior researcher at the Belgrade Center for Security Policy.

Special forces from the Chinese and Serbian armies will conduct joint training called “Peacekeeper 2025” in Hebei province, near Beijing, in the second half of July, Colonel Jiang Bin, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Defense, said at a press conference on Monday.

"This will be the first joint training between the Chinese and Serbian militaries," Jiang said, adding that the bilateral activity will help strengthen the combat capabilities of participating soldiers and deepen cooperation between the two militaries. However, details of the training, including content and duration, are not known.

"China has long faced a situation in which its economic interests and economic presence, including the presence of its companies and workers in distant countries and regions around the world, are becoming exposed to geopolitical and security risks. We saw this starting in 2011 with the fall of Muammar Gaddafi's regime in Libya, but also with the separation of Sudan into southern and northern parts in 2011. We also see that Chinese interests are increasingly vulnerable to terrorist attacks in places like Pakistan or Central Asia," says Vuksanović.

There is an evident view that if you establish a strong partnership with security structures, it makes those people more susceptible to Chinese influence because it not only creates a network of relationships and contacts that can be exploited, but also a whole relationship of dependency.

He points out that China, therefore, also faces the problem of not having a global security presence like the United States nor a system of global alliances and partnerships like the one the US has.

That's why, he adds, Beijing is trying to expand the reach of its partners and promote itself as a rising power by establishing partnerships even with distant and small countries like Serbia.

Vuksanović recalled the Global Security Initiative, in which China announced in 2023 that it would strengthen ties, including in the areas of training and education, with military, police and security officials from partner countries around the world, and pointed out that Serbia is clearly on the list.

"There is an evident view that if you establish a strong partnership with security structures, it makes those people more susceptible to Chinese influence because it not only creates a network of relationships and contacts that can be exploited but also a whole relationship of dependency."

From the Serbian side, says Vuksanović, this is just a continuation of the balancing policy, within which China is clearly imposing itself as an important partner.

"One could even say that in the past seven years, China, not Russia, has been Serbia's main partner outside the West," he said.

Commenting on how this military cooperation could reflect on Serbia's foreign policy orientation, Vuksanović says the European Union's reaction in this case is not that relevant.

"However, in the long term, the key challenge for Serbia remains how to balance relations with the US and China, given that China will be America's main competitor in the long term," he said.

It can be said that in the past seven years, China, not Russia, has been Serbia's main partner outside the West.

Asked whether the announced exercise had anything to do with controlling internal unrest, Vuksanović replied:

"This is still a military special forces exercise and it cannot be viewed in that context."

He recalled that special police units from Serbia and China conducted a joint exercise on the territory of Serbia in 2019.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić in Moscow in May: "China is ready to deepen strategic communication with Serbia, strengthen mutual support, advance trade and investment cooperation, continue to support the construction and operation of relevant projects, fully utilize their demonstration effect, and achieve more mutually beneficial results."

Vučić often emphasizes the closeness and importance of relations with China, calling it a "sincere" and "iron friend" of Serbia.