The only certain consequence of the verdict against Milorad Dodik is a worsening of relations within Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and further blockage of the country's development, especially in terms of fulfilling obligations to continue on the path towards membership in the European Union.
This was stated by Ivana Marić, a political analyst from Sarajevo, for "Vijesti", commenting on the situation after the decision of the Court of BiH, which on August 1 confirmed the first-instance verdict against the President of Republika Srpska (RS).
This became a final verdict, sentencing Dodik to a year in prison and a six-year ban on holding public office for failing to implement the decisions of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He said he would oppose the verdict, which he said was political and an attack on Republika Srpska.
"In BiH, you have laws and you have political decisions and agreements that suspend laws for a certain period of time. This is supported by the fact that there are many regulations that are not clear and precise enough, which leaves a lot of room for different interpretations and abuses," says Ivana Marić.
She assessed that in developed democracies, such dilemmas would be resolved in the best interest of society.
"And here, it is being resolved in the best interests of the ruling politicians. That is why it is not easy to say what the consequences of the verdict for Dodik will be. Immediately after the verdict was published, we heard different versions of who should have taken away his mandate, within what time frame and in what manner, as well as who should succeed him in office until early elections are called, if they ever happen."
A session of the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (CEC) has been announced for today, at which the procedure for determining the termination of Dodik's mandate will be discussed.
The BiH Election Law stipulates that the mandate of an elected member of a government body shall terminate upon the date of the final judgment sentencing him to a prison sentence of more than six months. The CEC is obliged to issue a decision on the termination of the mandate within 15 days of receiving the final judgment.
Marić says that any different action by the CEC would entail the responsibility of the members of the election commission, so it can be expected that they will make that decision. The second problem, she said, is whether the authorities in the RS will accept and implement the decision, in what way and in what form. She added that the judicial authorities have tolerated such types of disobedience on several occasions so far.
Dodik's legal team has already announced that it will file an appeal with the Constitutional Court of BiH against the finality of the decision, along with a request for a temporary measure to postpone the execution of the verdict until the appeal is considered.
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Given Dodik's announcement of a "response" and his call to citizens and the police to prevent possible early elections, "Vijesti" asked a Sarajevo analyst what steps he could take to remain in office.
"In any state governed by the rule of law, even the mere announcement of disrespect for court rulings and official bodies would be sufficient reason to initiate certain legal proceedings. However, in BiH, this has become a common occurrence, without serious legal consequences. So we can expect that Dodik will resist handing over his mandate, and that his followers and henchmen will support him in this," said Marić.
One thing is talk, another is action.
She said that the recent case of resisting arrest showed how far Dodik is willing to go, as well as how far the judicial authorities in the RS are willing to obey his orders, rather than respect the laws and decisions of the judicial authorities.
"Dodik says one thing and does another, and that's why we shouldn't listen to what he says, but rather watch what he does. The only time he did something illegal, and that was because of bad legal advice, he paid with a prison sentence and a ban on political activity. But when you listen to his story, you would say that he is constantly doing something illegal. However, Dodik is someone who, in the end, always respects laws and decisions, even those of bodies that he not only claims not to recognize, but also leads representatives in the RS National Assembly to vote on a decision not to recognize these institutions," says Marić.
Likewise, she added, Dodik is someone who will create an image in public as if he is fearless and not afraid of anyone or anything, while in reality it is completely different.
"So this time too, it is expected that Dodik's legal experts will find every loophole in the law that will allow him to somehow challenge the implementation of the verdict."
Dodik is someone who, in the end, always respects laws and decisions, even those of bodies that he not only claims not to recognize, but also leads representatives in the RS National Assembly to vote on a decision not to recognize those institutions.
Ivana Marić sees a possible solution for Dodik to remain in the office of the President of the RS, and to leave the signing of his decisions to one of his loyal associates.
"In this way, he would give the impression of untouchability in the eyes of the citizens of RS, while in reality he would once again be complying with the regulations, which is quite enough for him because he knows that perception is more important than facts."
Early elections are not desirable for anyone.
Marić believes that Dodik will do everything to prevent early elections in order to maintain the illusion that no one can do anything to him.
When asked who could succeed Dodik and whether his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has the personnel capacity for a new leader who could retain the party's power, she replied:
"There is no person in the SNSD who has the leadership skills and capacity to take over the party because Dodik has made an effort to surround himself with suitable, rather than capable, personnel. There is no doubt that all of them are just his megaphone, without the ability to make any important decisions independently. With Dodik's loss of power, they all lose power."
If elections are held, it will be clear to many that the President of the Republika Srpska is not as powerful as he wants to portray, Marić points out, adding that he is also supported by Draško Stanivuković, the president of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) and a person whom many see as a likely opponent to Dodik.
"In addition to the symbiosis that binds Dodik and Stanivuković, it is possible that he assessed that this is not a suitable time for elections because he did not receive the support of the rest of the opposition from RS, especially the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) as the strongest opposition party. Without that, there is little chance that he could defeat Dodik's candidate. Furthermore, due to the turmoil in the SDS, it is not in their favor to hold elections in the next 90 days, because they need time to rearrange themselves and for the new leadership to take positions on the issue. Early elections are not desirable for anyone, also because the mandate of the new RS president would last less than a year, i.e. only until the next general elections in October 2026."
He will choose someone as his successor who is not a threat to him.
Asked how realistic it is to expect that the ban on political activity will prevent Dodik from influencing political processes in the RS, Marić said that Dodik will retain all power in his hands regardless of whether he remains in office as President of the RS or not, "because in twenty years in power he has created a system that only he manages, and the others follow him."
"He will choose as his successor someone who he believes will serve him best in that position and who will not threaten him. In this way, he would continue to manage all processes and without any official function. This will be the case until the next elections when voters, counters and flight attendants will decide whether Dodik will retain power or lose it permanently."
Marić believes that it would be good if the opposition maintained good relations because, as she pointed out, only together can they defeat the ruling coalition.
"For this, it is necessary for the SDS to elect a new leadership as soon as possible and to embark on a serious election campaign, together with other opposition parties."
She has no doubt that Dodik will "buy out" of the one-year prison sentence because he is aware that disrespecting the decision could cost him new criminal trials.
"It's not the same when he resists being brought in for questioning because he knows it's a violation, but ignoring the prison sentence would lead to an automatic and harsh reaction from the judicial authorities. So he will replace the prison sentence with a fine, for which he will pay around 18.000 euros."
The international community has turned a new leaf
Commenting on the attitude of the High Representative and the international community towards the situation in RS, Marić said that it is high time we stopped wondering what international representatives can do to resolve BiH's internal problems and started asking exclusively what domestic institutions and authorities will do.
She pointed out that with the departure of the US ambassador from BiH, support for the High Representative to make frequent decisions has disappeared. She assessed that this is good for BiH because local politicians must learn to solve problems themselves and take responsibility for their decisions, instead of waiting for others to do it for them.
"The High Representative and the international community have turned a new leaf on the issue of BiH and only get involved when it is really necessary, so they will only get involved if the Bosnian-Herzegovinian authorities show a complete inability to deal with the situation. However, I think that will not happen and that the domestic judicial and other institutions will do their part. Dodik will compensate for this loss with increased rhetoric, but he will still do everything in accordance with the law."
Boasting about outside support is propaganda.
After the verdict last Friday, Dodik said that he expects full support from Serbia, that he will turn to Russia for support, and that he will write to the new US administration.
When asked to what extent this rhetoric is based on the real power of these actors to influence the situation in BiH, and how their actions could affect regional stability, Marić replied:
"All this support has only a propaganda significance, in order to create a false image of the power of the current government among the citizens of RS. Dodik has been boasting about the support of other states for years, but neither he, nor the citizens of RS, have had almost no benefit from it, except for moral support and strong statements. These states do not provide loans to RS to get this entity out of the debts that mismanagement has led them into. These states have no influence on the internal affairs of BiH, so their non-recognition of the decisions of BiH institutions is just an expression of their feelings, without any real influence."
She points out that Dodik also boasted of the support of the new American administration, and that the best evidence of what kind of support this is is that the sanctions against him and other RS officials remained in force, and were even repeated.
"The authorities in RS receive their strongest support from paid lobbyists, mostly failed, controversial and often convicted politicians, for whom paid support remains their only source of income, and a very lucrative one at that," said Marić.
"According to some media reports, Dodik invested over 60 million KM in lobbying for himself, not to mention for RS. That money was obviously wasted because there are no visible results, and it could have been spent on the real needs of the citizens of RS."
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