Serbia has serious problems due to an economic agreement with Russia from 2008, when it sold its financially hard-hit state oil company NIS (Oil Industry of Serbia) to the state-owned Russian oil concern Gazprom Neft.
Serbia hoped not only for economic, but also political benefits, primarily Russian support in the conflict over Kosovo.
Today, Gazprom Neft, together with Gazprom, owns about 56 percent of the stake in NIS, which is why the Serbian oil company became part of the US sanctions package against the Russian energy sector earlier this year.
Croatian JANAF suspends deliveries
The fact that Serbia's most important oil concern has been hit represents a kind of geopolitical fate, said Serbia's Minister of Energy, Dubravka Đedović Handanović.
"The sanctions were not imposed because of Serbia, nor because of the Serbian government. At the last moment of his mandate, US President Joe Biden imposed them against Russia and its energy sector. For us, the energy supplier NIS is extremely important and of existential importance. As a country, we are affected by the fact that two great powers are waging their wars," said Đedović Handanović.
In the US, Donald Trump became president shortly after, and then exemptions were introduced for NIS in the sanctions, so that Serbia's energy supply would not be jeopardized. But as of October 9, that's the end of it. There are no more exemptions, NIS is now truly under sanctions and the consequences are already visible.
Since Serbia produces less than a quarter of its crude oil needs, NIS mainly receives crude oil from countries such as Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan or Nigeria. It is transported to Croatia by tankers and there fed into the pipeline to Serbia. After the US sanctions came into effect, the Croatian company JANAF suspended deliveries to NIS.
Accusations against the Serbian government
Criticism is coming from the opposition in Serbia. An economic expert from the social democratic opposition party SSP, Dušan Nikezić, believes that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has done nothing against dependence on Russia, and it has long been clear that the US will one day seriously impose sanctions.
"I am surprised by the government's irresponsible approach to this problem. Now the Minister of Energy is telling us that we were just waiting to see if the NIS management had a plan," says Nikezić.
Vučić had several opportunities to discuss this issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "The result was that Putin said: 'We will turn off your gas too.'"
Gas contract extended only until the end of the year
The ten-year gas contract with Russia's Gazprom expired in May. The Russian side extended the contract only until the end of the year.
There is now speculation in Serbia that Russia wants to put pressure on Serbia by doing this, so that NIS does not return to state ownership.
This was contradicted by the Russian Ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandr Bocan-Kharchenko: "We will not suspend gas supplies to Serbia. We will continue, at the best prices."
Return of ownership to Serbia?
A few days ago, President Vučić discussed NIS at a meeting with the chairman of the board of directors of the Russian company Gazprom Neft, Alexander Dyukov, and with the Russian Deputy Minister of Energy, Pavel Sorokin. What exactly the solution will be, was not said, but Vučić promised the citizens of Serbia that there would be no energy crisis.
"Times are not easy. But I can guarantee the citizens of Serbia: there will be no shortage of oil or any oil derivatives, nor an energy crisis in Serbia. Our Russian friends understood our message, and we understood their interests. And we will do everything that is tactically and strategically best for Serbia," Vučić said.
Serbian media claim to have learned from multiple sources that the Serbian state is planning to buy back part of its stake in NIS, so that Russian state-owned concerns would no longer be the majority owners. If Russia's international situation one day "normalizes," the purchased shares could be sold back to Russia - that is reportedly the plan.
Is an energy crisis brewing?
There is no energy shortage in Serbia for now. But some citizens are already worried that they will once again have to buy gasoline in bottles and canisters, as they did during the war-torn 1990s.
Citizens are already feeling the first effects of the sanctions. Because NIS and Gazprom gas stations in Serbia have been excluded from the Visa, Mastercard and American Express payment systems.
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