The decision of the US Treasury Department to lift sanctions on the entire political leadership of Republika Srpska (RS), along with the family of Milorad Dodik, their business partners and companies, without a detailed public explanation of the political motives behind this move, opens up room for numerous speculations and uncertainty about the reasons and consequences of this decision, Adnan Ćerimagić, an analyst at the Berlin-based European Stability Initiative (ESI), told "Vijesti".
He says that a similar silence followed the previous lifting of sanctions on individuals, which leaves ample room for Dodik and his supporters to interpret the decision in a way that suits them politically.
"They are already presenting it as a great victory and confirmation of their own policies, and as proof that the sanctions were purely politically motivated, with no real justification or goal."
Ćerimagić adds that some of them are also speculating about the departure of High Representative Christian Schmidt as part of an agreement with the US, which further strengthens their position within their own electorate and in relation to the opposition.
"If the decision remains without a clear explanation, a response to what we hear from Dodik and people close to him, it will send a message to stakeholders in Bosnia and Herzegovina and beyond that lobbying, money and connections with people close to the new Donald Trump administration can achieve concrete political results, with certain concessions on their part," believes Ćerimagić.
It remains to be seen whether this decision marks the beginning of a new, ongoing American engagement in BiH, in what form and with what positions, or just the final move before transferring responsibility to domestic, regional and European actors.
The United States Treasury Department on Wednesday lifted sanctions on the former president of RS, his allies, family members and companies associated with them, the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced. OFAC did not explain the move.
The leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), who was stripped of his mandate in August after a court ruling banned him from politics, has been under US sanctions since 2017 for violating the Dayton Peace Agreement.
Dodik thanked Trump and his associates for, as he said, "correcting the great injustice inflicted on the RS, its representatives and their families."
Ćerimagić told "Vijesti" that he hopes that the US will clarify its policy and positions at the United Nations Security Council session on the EUFOR Althea mission, scheduled for today.
"The last time we heard a more detailed position was when the State Department reacted to the appointment of the interim president of the RS, describing it as a 'positive step' and the result of American efforts to 'de-escalate the crisis in BiH'. At that time, they spoke of a 'move that confirms stability in BiH' and 'establishes a constructive partnership with the US based on shared interests and prosperity'".
Ćerimagić says that this stance showed that the US had a leading role in managing the crisis resulting from the final verdict against Dodik and that, to a certain extent, certain concessions were obtained from him and his associates.
However, as he adds, it remains to be seen whether this decision marks the beginning of a new, continuous American engagement in BiH, in what form and with what positions, or just the final move before transferring responsibility to domestic, regional and European actors.
"Whatever the US policy, it will have and already has both negative and positive consequences, in the short and medium term, both for BiH and for the entire region."
When asked what the price of lifting sanctions might be, Čerimagić says that it is difficult to speculate about that.
"What we know so far is that Milorad Dodik complied with the final verdict, from exchanging the prison sentence for a fine, and its payment, to appointing an acting president. His party took part in the early presidential elections, and Dodik transferred the authority to sign acts related to the party's work to the Secretary General. At the same time, the RS National Assembly withdrew a number of previously adopted political and legal acts, which were the subject of dispute, and some of which initially led to the imposition of sanctions. In return, the US lifted almost all sanctions, he reminded.
The ESI analyst pointed out that this is a huge deal for Dodik and his supporters, both politically and practically. Whether this series of transactions will continue and what might be in it remains to be seen, he concluded.
Lobbyists present Dodik as a victim of political persecution
The New York Times writes that the lifting of sanctions represents a victory for Dodik and for the expensive influence campaign waged on his behalf by several Trump allies.
He estimates that this could allow Dodik, who still heads the ruling party in RS, to remain influential in that entity even without a formal role in the government.
The newspaper writes that senior Trump administration diplomats have been meeting with Dodik's allies in recent weeks, and that some of the meetings were facilitated by lobbyists and lawyers connected to Trump, to whom the RS government paid a total of about $300.000 per month or more, according to filings with the Ministry of Justice.
One of the lobbyists, Mark Zel, signed a contract with the RS government late last year that pays his firm $1 million for a year, with an additional “success fee” for “achieving the cancellation/termination of all sanctions.”
“Several prominent figures from Trump’s inner circle have also come out in support of Dodik. Among them were Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York who was the president’s personal lawyer during his first term; Michael T. Flynn, a retired lieutenant general who briefly served as national security adviser in Trump’s first term; Laura Lumer, a right-wing provocateur who enjoys the president’s support; and Rod Blagojevich, the former governor of Illinois, whom Trump pardoned in February before signing a deal with the RS government for an undisclosed amount the following month,” the Times writes.
They portrayed Dodik, the newspaper emphasizes, "as a victim of the same kind of political persecution that Trump, Giuliani, Flynn and Blagojevic allegedly faced, and as someone who is willing to make lucrative deals with Washington."
Carolyn Wren, a lobbyist whose firm Tactic Global has signed a $100.000-a-month contract with the RS government, said that lifting the sanctions “sends a clear message to the United Nations and the European Union that the United States will no longer allow unelected bureaucrats to target Christian leaders.”
Rehn, who is close to influential people in Trump's orbit, organized and attended a meeting in August in Montenegro for Dodik and his associate Željka Cvijanović with Richard Grenell, Trump's envoy for special missions, the American newspaper stated.
Manafort to help with the election
"Politko" announced that former Trump advisor Paul Manafort has been hired for consulting work with Dodik's party.
Manafort, who was previously convicted of financial and lobbying fraud but was later pardoned by Trump, was hired to help prepare for the upcoming elections in the RS.
According to information from "Politika", Manafort's work is focused on domestic political strategy, i.e. advisory engagement regarding the electoral process and campaign activities. The goal is allegedly to strengthen the presence and influence of the SNSD ahead of the election race.
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