Society in Serbia has changed a lot in a year, regardless of the final outcome of the fight against the autocratic system, Dragan Popović, director of the Center for Practical Politics, told "Vijesti".
"I don't remember a year in which more things changed. Society changed, above all people's belief that it is possible to fight and that it makes sense and that we don't have to surrender to apathy. That was what was killing us for more than a decade - a society that came to terms with the fact that we can't do better and that this is our maximum."
He says that the end result, paradoxically, is not the most important thing, and emphasizes the importance of the process in the last year - the politicization of entire young generations, their learning how to conquer public space, how to influence public decisions, as well as the new values they have awakened - solidarity, perseverance, energy.
"This is a result that I couldn't even dream of a year ago," says Popović.
Asked what the hunger strikes say about the state of the country, he said it is a powerful symbol that something is deeply wrong with society.
"Obviously, all channels of communication in society have been closed. The government, which has completely occupied all institutions and has created a situation where all who criticize it are automatically enemies, is using violence against its opponents, and in such a situation, unfortunately, some people will resort to the most radical methods."
He believes that this is not good and that all citizens are obliged to provide them with moral support, to stand by them, trying to convince them to stop these radical methods.
"Aside from the fact that it is a personal act, when we look at it politically and socially, it shows us that society in Serbia is in an extremely deep crisis," he pointed out.
Dijana Hrka, the mother of a young man who died when the canopy of the Novi Sad Railway Station collapsed on November 1, 2024, has not taken food since November 2 and is demanding that those responsible for the death of her son Stefan and the other 15 victims be prosecuted and that Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić call elections.
On Monday, truck driver Milomir Jaćimović and his son Milan went on a hunger strike at the entrance to the Provincial Government building in Novi Sad, demanding that the police return the buses they seized and that the fines he received in previous days for supporting students be dropped.
Impact of sanctions
Popović also commented on how US sanctions on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) could affect the regime's internal stability, that is, the potential for the economic and social consequences of the energy crisis to change the political dynamics.
"The potential for an economic crisis is always great, and the psychological potential is especially great. In Serbia, when the word sanctions is mentioned, panic sets in. We are a country that survived quite severe and serious sanctions in the 1990s, so they are automatically associated here with the worst decade of our lives, and I think that psychologically it is a big blow to the government because most people, especially the soft part of Vučić's electorate - not radical loyalists, but ordinary people, scared, who think that there are enemies everywhere and that war is always possible - expect the government to provide them with stability," he said. He pointed out that psychologically, every mention of sanctions, shortages, restrictions on electricity, gasoline in bottles, has serious consequences for the political dynamics in Serbia.
The US imposed sanctions on NIS in January this year due to its majority Russian ownership, but their implementation was postponed several times until October 9th.
Minister of Mining and Energy Dubravka Đedović Handanović announced yesterday that the Russian owners of NIS have sent a request to the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for an extension of the operating license based on negotiations with a third party.
"The request states that the Russian side is ready to cede control and influence over the NIS company to a third party," the minister wrote on her Instagram profile, adding that the state of Serbia has officially supported this request.
The exposed violence of the party against the profession
Popović also spoke to "Vijesti" about the case of the General Staff building complex in the center of Belgrade, saying that the government, in an attempt to survive, is dividing what is public.
"This is further evidence that we are dealing with a group of people who have occupied the state, taken over the institutions and are treating public goods as private property. They are now trading and giving away something that is a valuable cultural asset, which is an important symbol for a large number of citizens, in order to appease the Trump (US President Donald) administration."
He pointed out that this is a good example of how Serbia is governed - "by force, against the profession."
"They sent the BIA (Security Intelligence Agency) to harass experts in prisons in order to remove protection from those buildings, it is naked violence by one party against the profession which ultimately shows us how to govern. That is what is now a standard term internationally - a captive state."
Last week, members of the Serbian Parliament voted for a special law (Lex Specialis) on the complex of buildings of the General Staff and the former Federal Secretariat for National Defense, which allows for the demolition of these buildings, which were severely damaged by the NATO bombing of the FRY in 1999.
This paved the way for a controversial real estate project to be financed by an investment company linked to Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, despite widespread public opposition and legal hurdles. The Serbian government decided last November that the General Staff and Ministry of Defense buildings in downtown Belgrade would lose their status as cultural assets.
Experts say that the procedure was not followed, because a cultural asset can only be deleted from the register if it disappears or is completely destroyed, and the General Staff has not lost any of the values for which it was declared a cultural asset.
It is difficult to turn Serbia into Lukashenko's Belarus
Asked whether Serbia is on the verge of authoritarian consolidation, which is one of the scenarios predicted in a new report by the Belgrade Center for Security Policy (BCBP), Popović replied:
"It is difficult to implement this type of autocratization here, both because of geopolitical circumstances and because of historical experience and because of the specific development of society. We cannot become Lukashenko's (President Alexander) Belarus, even if some would like to. The government does not have that kind of potential, nor is it possible to break society so much that we go in that drastic direction."
He said that the process of disintegration of an authoritarian regime that has taken over every pore of society is currently underway.
"The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) is the only party in Europe that has power at absolutely every level, in every local community, in every village. And that tells us how difficult it is to dismantle such a system. I think this will continue for a while longer, that it will fall apart in constant crises, earthquakes. Too many irrational factors are involved, including Vučić himself, who makes many decisions completely irrationally. He has enormous power and his word is law for a large number of people. It is difficult to predict, but we are moving towards a resolution, only that resolution does not have to be quick or painless."
Commenting on what could be crucial in this process - the persistence of civil protests, the behavior of the security apparatus, or the West's determination to take a more active role, Popović stated:
"From our recent historical experience and what I see on the streets, it seems to me that these factors are very much connected, but that the will and pressure of the citizens is the key. When society is well organized and exerts enough pressure, which is the case here at the moment, then the European Union (EU) and other factors turn towards you."
He pointed out that it was society that forced the EU to start paying attention and stop “turning a blind eye to one or even both eyes in certain situations.” Popović feels similarly about the security apparatus.
"On October 5th, we had a situation where entire units switched to the side of the protesters the moment they realized that legitimacy was on that side. First, we had September 24th, when Milošević (then president of the FRY Slobodan) lost the elections, and then we only had October 5th, when the entire police brigade switched to the side of the protesters, precisely with the explanation that Milošević no longer had legitimacy because he lost the elections."
He believes that society must organize itself and do everything in its power, including winning elections, and that only then can it be expected that at least parts of the security apparatus will refuse the most drastic orders, such as those to confront citizens.
Scenarios until June 2026.
In the report "Political and Institutional Crisis in Serbia: Possible Scenarios (November 2025-June 2026)", the BCSP states that after the tragedy in Novi Sad, Serbia entered the deepest political, social and institutional crisis since Vučić and the SNS came to power in 2012.
The report considers four possible scenarios for developments between November 2025 and June 2026.
The first is controlled repression, weakening of protests and quiet authoritarian consolidation. The second is EU mediation leading to a fragile transition through negotiations, including a technical government and early elections. According to the third scenario, increased repression causes chaos, threatening the collapse of the system of governance and spillover of instability to the region.
The fourth scenario is early elections that could open a way out of the crisis, but carry the risk of electoral manipulation or sabotage and violence that could be directed by the regime itself.
The BCSP lists four possible outcomes: political vacuum, negotiated transition, regime collapse, or authoritarian consolidation, with each outcome potentially morphing into another, depending on internal and external pressures.
The report emphasizes that the crisis in Serbia is not a linear process, but a “living state” that is constantly changing. Prolonged stagnation can lead to entrenched autocracy; repression and unrest can lead to regime collapse; and the exhaustion of the conflict can open the way to an EU-mediated transition. On the other hand, even early elections, presented as a democratic solution, could degenerate into renewed conflict or institutional paralysis if their outcome is manipulated.
It is emphasized that Serbia is at a crossroads where every road carries both risk and opportunity.
“The direction the country will take will depend on three interrelated forces: the resilience of civic mobilization, the regime’s capacity for repression or compromise, and the EU’s determination to act not as a distant observer but as a resolute guarantor of democratic principles. The outcome of the crisis – whether it ends in negotiated transformation or entrenched autocracy – will depend on how these dynamics intersect in the crucial months between November 2025 and June 2026.”
The report highlights that the security apparatus plays a central role in the crisis - encompassing not only formal police structures, but also paraformations composed of criminal groups, hooligan networks, and party loyalists mobilized to suppress resistance.
"The intensity and frequency of their repressive actions directly affect the speed and severity of the crisis. The possible deployment of military units would mark a dramatic escalation, suggesting that the regime has turned to overt authoritarian control," it points out.
Meanwhile, Serbia’s intelligence services, the military security agencies and the Security Information Agency, operate largely behind the scenes. Their activities include covert surveillance and the transfer of knowledge from the Russian manual on suppressing democratic movements (“color revolutions”), making them largely invisible but extremely influential actors in the unfolding drama.
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