A close associate of Milorad Dodik was ahead of the opposition candidate in the snap presidential election in Republika Srpska, according to almost complete preliminary results released yesterday, while the opposition claimed widespread electoral fraud.
According to data from the Central Election Commission (CIK) of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), after 98,21 percent of regular polling stations were processed, Siniša Karan, candidate of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), won 217.324 votes or 50,30 percent, while Branko Blanuša, candidate of the Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), won 208.955 votes or 48,37 percent of the vote.
"It is already established practice in BiH that there are no election losers, only winners and those whose elections were stolen. However, this time this could indeed be the case, given the atypical and suspicious results in certain constituencies," Ivana Marić, a political analyst from Sarajevo, told "Vijesti".
She pointed out that comparing the results with the 2022 elections indicates possible electoral fraud orchestrated by the ruling structures. She recalled that a similar situation occurred in the 2022 elections between Dodik and Jelena Trivić, the opposition candidate. There were also suspicions of electoral fraud then, but there was not enough evidence to repeat the counting or the elections.
This time it could be different because there are a number of suspicious votes that could affect the final election result, Marić assessed.
Blanusa and other opposition leaders claim that there was “massive vote-rigging” in three towns near the border with Serbia. They said the irregularities included the illegal “importation of voters” from Serbia, who are suspected of voting for Karan.
Blanusa told reporters in Banja Luka yesterday that the early presidential elections are not over until the electoral process is repeated in Doboj, Zvornik and Laktaši, where, as he assessed, thanks to electoral manipulations, the results do not reflect the will of the people.
"If we gave up now, we would be just like them - we would deceive and betray the people," said Blanusa. He thanked the citizens who supported "the vision of a different Republika Srpska" in these elections.
Ivana Marić believes that the opposition led by the SDS should act "wisely" and, along with drawing public attention to these irregularities, work on properly using all possibilities for complaints and lawsuits against those responsible.
Although it is still uncertain who will be the new president of RS, what is certain is that SNSD and Dodik continue to lose support from the public and citizens, the analyst points out.
"This is visible in the growth of support for the opposition candidate over the SNSD candidate in some areas, where the SNSD previously had a significant advantage."
Marić assessed that Dodik would be particularly hard-hit by the loss in Banja Luka, where the SDS candidate achieved significant results, even though that party is not strong in this city.
"This only shows that in this case, citizens voted mostly against Dodik, and the election of Branko Blanuša as the opposition candidate made their task easier because he is a man with no blemishes in his career and who uses completely different rhetoric than Dodik."
Marić pointed out that Dodik will be particularly hard hit by the loss in Banja Luka, where the SDS candidate achieved significant results, even though the party is not strong in this city.
She believes that these elections have shown that good election results can be achieved through a decent election campaign without insults on any grounds.
"This is largely due to Blanuša because he is that kind of man, but also to the people around him, who did not fall for provocations but tried to win votes with a positive story and announcement of changes," Marić concluded.
Of the 1,2 million citizens eligible to vote in the RS, only 443.472 voters, or 35,78 percent, turned out to vote. For comparison, about 53 percent of voters voted in the 2022 general elections in the RS, said Jovan Kalaba, the president of the Central Election Commission of BiH.
The newly elected president will serve less than a year in office. Regular presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in October 2026.
“They got two Dodiks”
Dodik was stripped of his presidency in August after a Bosnian court convicted him of disobeying the High Representative's decisions, sentenced him to one year in prison, and banned him from holding any public office for the next six years. He later paid a fine to avoid prison and stepped down as president, but remained at the helm of the SNSD.
He repeatedly rejected the verdict, but in October he unexpectedly appointed a loyal ally as interim president of RS and overturned a series of separatist laws that parliament had previously passed.
A few days later, the United States lifted sanctions imposed against him, his allies, and family members, praising the move as a step toward “stabilizing” BiH.
Dodik declared Karan's victory on Sunday and fiercely attacked the process that led to his ouster from the presidency.
"They wanted to overthrow Dodik in an unfair process, and now they have two Dodiks and they will watch us every day," he said.
Karan, who currently serves as the RS Minister of Scientific and Technological Development, promised to continue Dodik's policies "even more strongly."
"As always when times were tough, the Serbian people won," Karan said after Dodik declared victory at the headquarters of the ruling SNSD in Banja Luka.
Dodik stated yesterday that for his party, the presidential elections are over and that they will not be repeated in Doboj, Zvornik and Laktaši.
"We reject the opposition's claims for the places where we received a significant number of votes. We do not dispute that we lost in Banja Luka by a margin of 14.000 and we are not asking for a repeat of the elections in Banja Luka. But there will be no repeat of the elections in Doboj, for us the elections are over and done with," Dodik told reporters in Banja Luka.
He stated that Blanusa is close to Karan because 20.000 Bosniaks from RS voted for him.
Dodik accused the opposition parties of intending to win the post of president of the RS with the help of Bosniaks and High Representative Kristijan Šmit, but added that they "did not succeed".
Crnadak: SNSD's crazy theft in their Bermuda Triangle
A senior official of the Party of Democratic Progress (PDP) and MP Igor Crnadak announced that "we must not remain silent about the insane theft orchestrated by the SNSD and its Bermuda Triangle Doboj - Zvornik - Laktaši."
He stated that the decision of the people of RS to initiate changes and turn to building a normal and decent society "disappeared in the three mentioned cities."
"Just as planes and ships once mysteriously disappeared in the part of the ocean near Florida, so yesterday the will of the people of RS to end the SNSD's rule disappeared in the SNSD's Bermuda Triangle of Doboj - Zvornik - Laktaši," Crnadak wrote on Facebook.
He stated that Blanusa won eight thousand more votes than Karan in the entire RS, and that in those three cities alone, Karan won 20 thousand more votes.
"Don't do it?", wrote Crnadak.
He added that this time, "thieving and impudence must not be allowed to defeat honesty and decency."
"When you're afraid, you do things out of control. That's exactly why there was a lot of crazy stealing yesterday, because SNSD felt it was over," Crnadak said.
He compared the results of the early elections in Doboj, Laktaši, and Zvornik with the results of the 2022 general elections, when Milorad Dodik and Jelena Trivić were in the race for the presidency of the RS.
At that time, in Doboj, out of a total of 32.369 voters, the difference for Dodik was 9.288 votes, and in Sunday's elections, out of a total of 23.542 voters (nine thousand fewer), the difference for Karan was 8.892 votes.
He added that in Zvornik, in the 2022 elections, out of a total of 28.273 voters, the difference for Dodik was 2.178 votes, while on Sunday, out of a total of 19.396 voters (nine thousand fewer), the difference for Karan was 6.260 votes.
In Laktaši, out of a total of 19.111 voters in the 2022 elections, the difference for Dodik was 3.143 votes, and in Sunday's elections, out of a total of 15.561 voters (3.500 fewer), the difference for Karan was 4.884 votes.
"In total, in the SNSD's Bermuda Triangle today, the difference is 20 thousand votes in favor of the SNSD, six thousand more than when 22 thousand fewer people voted," Crnadak concluded.
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