The leaders of the European Union and the Western Balkan countries are meeting this Wednesday (December 17) in Brussels, at a time when, under the pressure of new geopolitical circumstances, the EU's future relationship with the region is being re-examined.
More than a decade after Croatia's accession, the enlargement of the European Union seems closer to reality than it was years ago. The question is no longer whether – but which Western Balkan countries are ready to move forward, and which will remain on the sidelines.
According to EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos, Montenegro could technically complete accession negotiations by the end of 2026, and Albania a year later.
"Then we need a year to a year and a half to go through the ratification process. So I am realistically optimistic that even during my mandate, which ends at the end of 2029, the European Union could gain at least two new members," Kos told DW.
At the same time, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced that Serbia would not participate in the Summit "for the first time in 13, 14 years."
"I made such a decision so that no one else would be to blame. I don't want the government to suffer any pressure," Vučić said. "I think that by doing so I am protecting the Republic of Serbia, its interests, because we have to show first what we have done, and we have done a lot and they have admitted it and spoken about it."
Montenegro as a role model
Montenegro certainly has the most reason for optimism ahead of the Summit, having closed five more negotiation chapters at an intergovernmental conference in Brussels on Tuesday, December 16. However, the European Union continues to say that more efforts are needed to combat corruption and organized crime, and to ensure the independence of the judicial system.
After years of stagnation, Montenegro pushed through key reforms two years ago and achieved a broad political consensus on EU membership. Both Podgorica and Brussels are now striving to complete the accession process as soon as possible.
However, local critics argue that the reforms have been rushed and may therefore lack substance.
"No one serious claims that the system can be fundamentally changed in a few years," replies Montenegrin Minister of European Affairs Maida Gorčević.
"Criticism is legitimate when it serves to further accelerate reforms, but it is important to say that today reforms are not measured by political impression, but by clear European indicators, and that Montenegro's progress has been objectively confirmed by EU institutions," she added in a statement to DW.
Albania's progress
Montenegro is closely followed by Albania. While the European Commission points to progress in judicial reforms, it also warns that additional efforts are needed to fight corruption and strengthen the rule of law.
However, as political analyst Florian Biber points out for DW, the outcome is far from certain and sustainable reforms are needed.
"Albania is implementing a lot of, at least formally, reforms, but in a context where you have a very strong leader, Edi Rama, it certainly has very serious democratic shortcomings. So, there are certain reservations and it is not clear whether Albania will be able to bridge that gap and really be ready at the same time as Montenegro," Biber told DW.
Why does the EU want to expand?
For the European Union, enlargement is a strategic issue – but also a question of credibility. Montenegro's accession would be a low-risk move with a high impact, demonstrating that the Union can deliver on its promises and bolstering confidence in its leadership in uncertain geopolitical times, according to an analysis by the European Policy Centre (EPC).
Enlargement is also linked to Europe's security and its geostrategic interests.
"We are paying the price for not integrating these countries when they first wanted to join, leaving the region unstable," Commissioner Kos told DW.
Pressured by new geopolitical circumstances, they are now trying to correct that mistake.
"If the Union does not expand to these countries, other powers could come in and exploit the region, using it as leverage against the European Union, including Russia and China," Tinatin Akhvlediani, a researcher in the European Union foreign policy department at the Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS), tells DW.
What about the proposal from Serbia?
If the pace of progress towards EU membership is so different across the region – where does that leave Aleksandar Vučić and his earlier proposal that all Western Balkan countries join the Union together?
Many analysts interpret Vučić's proposal as an attempt to slow down the entire integration process, because Serbia is not doing well at the moment.
Although the Serbian president said that European leaders listened to him "like decent people", it seems that there is not much interest in his idea within the European Commission.
"Accession is a merit-based process. Each candidate should join when it is ready and when it meets the conditions and criteria set out in the EU Treaties, including the Copenhagen criteria. There are no predetermined deadlines. The process is driven by the implementation of reforms and the demonstration of sustainable results," a European Commission spokesperson told DW.
Every country in its own way
Both Tinatin Akhvlediani and Florian Biber emphasize that the enlargement process has always been guided by the “regatta principle,” meaning that candidate countries go their own way, and integration depends on their own merits, reforms, and fulfillment of technical criteria.
Biber, however, notes that the idea of simultaneous accession also has some advantages.
"This," he says, "would avoid the creation of external EU borders between the Western Balkan countries and prevent the import of bilateral problems into the European Union."
"On the other hand, there are serious drawbacks, because the pace of the slowest candidate would dictate the pace of the others. So Montenegro, even if it were ready to join the European Union in the coming years, could be held back by countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina or Kosovo, which could take another ten years," adds Biber.
Montenegro does not want to wait
The Albanian Prime Minister's office had no comment on Vučić's proposal at the time of publication of the text.
Montenegro, however, reacted quickly, making it clear that it wanted to move forward.
"Montenegro does not want to wait for anyone, nor for anyone to wait for it. We are leaders in the process and we want to join the European Union when we show with our results that we are ready for it and that we deserve membership," said Minister Maida Gorčević.
While other neighbors are trying to catch up, Podgorica is telling them that it is ready to share its knowledge and experiences, believing that "the success of one country contributes to the stability, security and overall progress of the Western Balkans, but also of the entire Union."
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