After the 2025 ruling of the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina and years of US sanctions, Milorad Dodik (SNSD) is now walking through Washington as a guest of the Trump administration. He also recently visited Israel, sending a message of changing the political landscape in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The visit to the United States these days – just before the re-election of the President of Republika Srpska – is not just symbolic. It certainly marks a geopolitical shift that is changing the balance of power in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where the Banja Luka government is becoming a key player in Trump's vision of the Balkans.
For pro-government analysts, it is clear that this is the biggest diplomatic offensive by Republika Srpska in recent years – something that, admittedly, even Dodik's biggest political opponents cannot deny. The only question is whether this is a new beginning of cooperation or a sale of principles for short-term gain.
Trump's wind is changing direction
The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House has brought pragmatism, especially for those willing to follow him at all costs. Rich in energy and mineral resources, Republika Srpska is seen as a buffer zone against Russian and Chinese influence. The lifting of US sanctions on the RS leadership last year was no accident. OFAC clearly cited “constructive action by the RS National Assembly,” which implies possible concessions.
"I think Milorad Dodik is playing games, especially with the judicial institutions, because he continues his secessionist rhetoric and attacks on the constitutional order without any consequences," says political analyst Tanja Topić, recalling Dodik's new announcements about secession after his return from Israel. Now the games have been transferred to the American court.
"He continues to toy with the citizens he not so long ago encouraged to hate imperialist America, which is now being swindled at the expense of those same taxpayers. He also swears by the same value system as Trump, standing on the defense of Christian values in the face of the onslaught of 'radical Islam,'" says Topić.
From threats to silence
For others, this is not just a victory for Dodik, but a reorganization of politics in BiH. Unlike the other entity, RS is currently getting the green light for investments related to infrastructure projects, as well as for taking over the southern and eastern gas interconnections as a package.
Having exerted pressure with sanctions for years, the European Union is now silent, because for Brussels, the Trump era means the end of their monopoly on the Balkans. At the same time, analysts believe, Dodik's transformation from "Russian ally" to "Trump's child" is changing the dynamics in state institutions, where the SNSD, led by Dodik, is once again becoming an unavoidable factor.
The August 2025 ruling by the Court of BiH was Dodik's darkest political moment. The court confirmed that Dodik had violated the laws of High Representative Christian Schmidt from 2023. This resulted in a political lynching and isolation of Dodik, as well as the entire leadership of Republika Srpska.
"No one is above the law," said BiH Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković at the time.
Visiting Israel as a link in the American chain
Change, however, came quickly. The sanctions were lifted after millions invested in lobbying, with the State Department's message of "partnership on shared interests."
Three months later, Dodik is broadcasting from Washington on the X network, where he came at the invitation of the US administration to attend a traditional prayer breakfast.
"I have arrived," wrote Dodik, who in the previous two days, together with a member of the BiH Presidency, met with several senior American officials.
In addition to Washington, Dodik's visit to Israel adds another layer of change. The meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog were not protocol-related. They discussed economic cooperation and geopolitics. According to Dodik, Israel sees the RS as a stable partner, and with the Trump-Netanyahu axis, the RS is becoming a field for investment.
"I think it's high time to affirm the right to self-determination. What we have succeeded in in Israel is to affirm that right to self-determination," Dodik said after his visit to Israel.
There are more and more people who believe that pragmatism has prevailed in this battle, especially with the announcement of an investment infusion into the devastated economy. This could mean a new balance in BiH, but the question remains whether its lifespan coincides with the duration of this American administration.
Betrayal or pragmatism
"A favorable geopolitical moment, associated with Trump and his unpredictability, could bring serious headaches to BiH. On the one hand, Dodik will do everything to return to political life and act as if he had not been removed from office, while Dragan Čović is trying to 'seize the opportunity' and seize the third entity," says Topić, adding that this hardly fits with the US's economic interests in BiH.
"Such (in)stability is not compatible with plans. The lobbying lesson, which confirmed that today's relations are based on power, interest and money, has shattered all illusions about the rule of law and respect for human rights," Topić points out.
The opposition in RS claims that Dodik has reached an agreement with the Americans on all issues. In addition to investments and turning the area into a mining colony, the Dayton Agreement is again on the table - something that Dodik and Čović now agree on.
"The usurper has made a deal with the Americans and foreigners, he is ready for any betrayal in order to remain in power. In addition to Zagreb, he is also a useful idiot for the Jews from Israel, who are also encouraging him - lobbied with public money - to destroy Bosnia and Herzegovina," claims Nebojša Vukanović, leader of the Justice and Order List.
Balloon before the repeat elections
Following Dodik's international offensive, in which he is seeking support for an independent RS, and Čović's announcements of meetings in Washington and Brussels, where he will seek support for amendments to the BiH Election Law and the dismantling of Dayton, Konaković also spoke out. He claims that Dodik's move is aimed at mobilizing voters ahead of the repeat elections for the president of RS, after the BiH Central Election Commission (CEC) determined massive electoral fraud in the elections in November last year.
"For twenty years, politicians in BiH, this pro-Bosniak side, have been running after Milorad Dodik, following his crazy ideas and reacting to him because they are afraid of him. He is huge and overwhelming to them. They react to his every threat of secession and thereby deliberately strengthen him, because he suits them as a partner," says Konaković, dismissing the real danger of that scenario.
The repeat elections on Sunday will show whether Dodik's offensive is a permanent change or just a temporary shift at the crossroads of Balkan interests. The question remains whether the stability of Republika Srpska will survive Trump's mandate or whether it will return to the old dynamics of Bosnian reality.
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