This year in Serbia may be an election year. Or at least a preparation for an election year in which, it is clear, the strongest opponent of the list around the Serbian Progressive Party will be the student list.
While it is not yet known how the parliamentary opposition will behave, influencer Baka Prase and former Minister of Health Danica Grujičić have announced their entry into the political race.
The first built his entire biography and fortune on bizarre appearances on social networks, the second was a prominent neurosurgeon and Minister of Health. Although they come from different worlds, they are connected by a right-wing narrative. The student movement and many observers of the political scene suspect that these are government scoundrels, those who want to snatch some of the votes from students.
Two weeks ago, Bogdan Ilić, also known as Granny Pig, announced that he might run for mayor of Belgrade. He has so far been supported by the controversial right-wing movement known for its collaboration with the regime – Leviathan.
Against migrants and for sovereignty
Ilić said that he stands neither with the students, who have been protesting for more than a year, nor with the regime, and the biggest issue he will address is migrants, or rather their expulsion from Belgrade.
Ilić has additionally entered the political spotlight after his appearance attempted to contribute to the popularity of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić's first live "address" on TikTok last week.
Danica Grujičić, in collaboration with four other movements, founded the Sovereignty Alliance. She claims that the bloc is not pro-government and is made up of people “whom no one can buy.” However, she is open to cooperation with the student list, to which she says she would give up her seat if it was made up of “professors with a sovereignist orientation.”
Medical students – those protesting – spoke out about her move, saying that “satellites of the Serbian Progressive Party are already visible.” Grujičić, who has repeatedly harshly criticized the SNS after leaving the government, did not escape the label.
And the label doesn't come from nowhere. Various right-wing parties, throughout the history of the Progressives, have eventually decided on some kind of cooperation with them. The most recent example is "Zavetnici", whose leader Milica Đurđević Stamenkovski, as an alleged opposition member, remained below the threshold, but then jumped into a ministerial position.
The authorities are pretending to be the opposition.
According to Dejan Bursać from the Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, there are two explanations for the emergence of new right-wing actors. The first is the long-standing practice of co-opting the right by the regime, characteristic of hybrid political systems.
"The government tends to choose some favorites from the parties with which it will cooperate, and in this way it will obstruct unity among the opposition blocs and introduce voter distrust in those parties," explains Bursać.
In a tense election year, even small percentages can decide who will hold power. A vivid example of how small numbers can influence the fate of even one city is shown by the 2024 elections in Niš. Then, the Russian Party, with one mandate, whose legitimacy is still questionable, prevailed in favor of the Progressives.
Another explanation lies in the assessment of the political moment. According to Bursać, the right-wing in Serbia has a stable but limited voter base, and some actors assess that there is currently an empty space on that scene. While some, like Dr. Branimir Nestorović, managed to take advantage of that space, other right-wing parties have become politically irrelevant over time.
The potential of right-wing options
DW's interlocutors agree that there is room for such options in Serbia. A Gallup survey shows that two-thirds of people in Serbia support the policies of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Polls on support for EU accession have shown for years that there are similar numbers of opponents and advocates.
Alternative right-wing options have taken around ten percent of the vote in the previous two election cycles. Political scientist and consultant Dušan Milenković from the organization Sprint Insight explains that the potential of the right is greater than the election results indicate.
"Research shows us that a significant number of people are susceptible to such political positions, and that there are many more of them than is seen in the elections, because the SNS continues to buy a large number of those votes, while a number of them choose abstention," says Milenković.
Historian Stefan Radojković states that national and sovereign ideas are deeply rooted in society, and that this is confirmed by the dominance of the Progressive Party.
"Given that Aleksandar Vučić's electorate is predominantly nationalistic and sovereignist, it can be freely argued that such attitudes and ideas are prevalent among citizens," explains Radojković.
How much do students carry?
The whole story can also include the student movement, which, according to DW's interlocutors, has managed to take over part of that right-wing narrative.
"Given that the Student Movement is a catch-all movement of the new generation and is against the establishment, it actually covers the ideas of national sovereignty and territorial integrity that are in the Constitution of Serbia," says Radojković.
Milenković also speaks about the wide spectrum of political positions of the student movement, saying that it is natural for them to buy votes from right-wing parties as well.
"We have a major conflict here between two actors who have a very broad political reach - Vučić's list and the student list," explains Milenković.
However, it is already clear that the polarization in the elections will not be "perfect". That is, in addition to the ruling and student lists, there will be who knows how many others, including those fishing for votes from the right. It only remains to be seen which of these hooks are actually regime-based.
Bonus video:
