The new American administration has fundamentally changed the political architecture of the Balkans, bringing decades-old postulates about the sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the point where its survival is questionable. After the political offensive of the Republika Srpska leadership in Israel and the United States, questions about the self-determination of the RS have been reopened, this time with lukewarm American reactions.
"The future of the country lies with its citizens. We encourage all leaders to focus on achieving the stability and prosperity their citizens deserve," the State Department said, announcing that they would continue to use all diplomatic tools to support the stability of BiH, the media reported.
The Munich Lobby and the Diplomatic Counterattack
Reactions from Europe, where warnings had previously come, but also concrete moves, embodied in sanctions or some other form of political isolation, have also been lukewarm. The question of whether an entity is stronger than a state has ceased to be a legal one and has become exclusively a political balance of power on the international stage, which Banja Luka is skillfully exploiting.
On the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, BiH Presidency member Denis Bećirović spoke about this issue, saying that attempts to destabilize Bosnia and Herzegovina and attacks on the Dayton Peace Agreement are underway. In a conversation with Brendan Hanrahan, Head of the Bureau of Europe and Eurasia of the US State Department, Bećirović pointed to the scandalous contracts of the RS with certain lobbying firms that explicitly contracted to lobby for the destruction of the internationally recognized state.
"This represents an anti-Dayton and unconstitutional action directed against peace and security and an escalation that has not been seen in more than 30 years of implementation of the Dayton Agreement. The implementation of such a destructive and dangerous policy must not be allowed," said Bećirović.
"Who is Dodik?"
The reaction came from Brussels through the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Marta Kos. During her visit to the region, she took an unusually harsh stance, publicly asking: “And who is Dodik, anyway?”
"He does not represent either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Republika Srpska. More than a million people live in RS, they are important. We will talk to politicians, including the new president of RS. But Dodik is irrelevant to me," Kos concluded, making it clear that the European Commission does not see Dodik as a legitimate partner on the European path as long as he pursues a policy of secessionism.
It didn't take long to wait for a response.
"She is completely irrelevant to me and I don't deal with her. When she mentions my name without any provocation, then I point out her irrelevance. I see that she is announcing talks in Republika Srpska. In Banja Luka, she can talk to losers or to herself in the mirror. She also talks about secession. She knows that very well. She comes from a country that implemented secession," said Dodik.
Report for the overthrow of the constitutional order
They are not sitting idly by in Sarajevo either, so a group of parliamentarians from the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH filed criminal charges against the leadership of Republika Srpska, as well as their lobbying representatives abroad, due to the "creeping coup d'état".
"A complaint has been filed against Mladen Filipović, head of the Republika Srpska mission in Austria, and other related persons who are calling for, inciting or preparing for the independence of Republika Srpska from Bosnia and Herzegovina (Milorad Dodik, Nenad Stevandić, Radovan Višković and others)," said Saša Magazinović, a representative in the Parliamentary Assembly of BiH.
"The criminal report is being filed due to the existence of grounds for suspicion that the reported persons committed the criminal offenses of attacking the constitutional order, endangering territorial integrity, giving a reward or other form of benefit for trading in influence, conspiring to commit criminal offenses, and aiding and abetting," Magazinović stated.
"We expect that the Prosecutor's Office of BiH cannot remain silent on this matter and this case," said Denis Zvizdić, the Deputy Chairman of the BiH Parliamentary Assembly.
Factory settings
The move, however, comes at a time when state judicial institutions are under unprecedented pressure and internal gridlock, raising questions about their operational capacity this year. RS officials have called the filings “political folklore” and a desperate move by those who have lost the support of “international mentors.”
In circles close to the new American administration, such legal processes are seen as an internal obstacle to economic stability, which further deepens the gap between Sarajevo's insistence on the rule of law and the new Western pragmatism that favors "peaceful reality on the ground."
"We are not destroying the Constitution of BiH, we are just returning it to factory settings, as it was written in Dayton, and not as it has been rewritten for decades by high-ranking representatives without any legitimacy," said Milorad Dodik, de facto still the leader of all political processes in RS, regardless of last year's verdict.
BiH Foreign Minister Elvedin Konaković has made public a contract that, he claims, exposes Milorad Dodik's lobbying in the US – four million dollars for a Canadian consulting firm, which sets out clear goals.
OHR, Schmidt and Secession
"One of those goals is the closure of the OHR, emphasized, written, made official and actively worked on. Removing Schmidt from the position of High Representative, written, signed. Secession, clearly emphasized as the final and final goal, which constitutes an attack on the constitutional order of BiH and that is just the beginning of a story, that fight is still ongoing," says Konaković.
The narrative of self-determination, which until recently was an absolute red line for every Western diplomat, is now viewed differently in circles close to the new American administration, without harsh reactions or direct moves towards the protagonists of this narrative.
Some American officials are increasingly sending signals that coexistence without internal consensus is no longer a viable model, which directly undermines the position of those who still see the answer in strong international mediation and presence.
On the other hand, representatives of the European Union, such as the High Representative for Foreign Affairs, warn that "any attempt to unilaterally change the constitutional order would lead to the complete isolation of the entity", but no one in Banja Luka takes these threats seriously anymore, emboldened by the support of the new administration and its allies.
Redefining the role
As for the position of the Republika Srpska itself and its lobbying, Milan Blagojević, a doctor of law from Banja Luka, says that there is nothing controversial about it, except for the part that relates to the independence of the RS.
"The contract was concluded when Milorad Dodik did not hold any public office. Despite this, the contract stipulates benefits for Dodik, and all of this is paid for with money from the budget of the Republika Srpska, which is an abuse of official position by those in the Government of the Republika Srpska who, by virtue of their position, made this possible. But, the public prosecutor's offices are silent about all this," claims Blagojević.
The danger of this approach lies not only in the possible formal disintegration of the country, but in the complete absence of resistance from the international community, which turns the quiet dissolution into an accepted political process that is no longer considered an incident, but the new normal.
Political analyst Tanja Topić warns that after the RS delegation's visit to the United States and Israel, attitudes are becoming more radical.
"After the diplomatic offensive, let's call it that, by some of the leadership, both of Republika Srpska and Bosnia and Herzegovina, and some party bosses, I would say that the scale of aggressive narrative and hate speech has been raised by an octave," says Topić.
Analysts believe that the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina now directly depends on the ability of its institutions to redefine their role in the new global order and become an indispensable factor in regional stability and economic integration. Although the entities have assumed significant power, the survival of BiH remains the only path to European integration, leaving room for internal compromise that would adapt BiH's sovereignty to new geopolitical realities.
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