The possibility of incumbent President Zoran Milanović running for office in the upcoming parliamentary elections is once again shaking up the Croatian public. According to media reports, Milanović is planning his own "independent" list in 2028.
However, before he himself made a statement about the so-called "Zoran List", the public was flooded with reactions from other politicians and media commentators. In this regard, for days now, the possible effects on the results that would be achieved in this case by the parties formally close to Milanović, the Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP) and Možemo!, have been hastily assessed.
At the same time, projections of the results of the center-right and the right are presented, from HDZ to the Homeland Movement and Most, or the potential of Zoran Milanović to "grab" a portion of the votes from that side.
He would allegedly then incorporate them into the electoral performance of the left-liberal coalition, but the question remains whether he would thereby win the key prime ministerial position for himself.
There is also speculation that such a political calculation could easily end in fatal complications if its actors miscalculate.
An unnecessary and harmful circus
It should be borne in mind that it is precisely the SDP – whose leader and prime minister Milanović was – as well as its related parties, that have recorded similar calculated failures in several previous elections.
"I don't see anything positive in that combination, if that announcement is even credible," political scientist Ivan Šiber told DW. He noted that he has a negative opinion of Milanović and his political stance, which has been particularly pronounced in the conflict between the president and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.
"I am not expressing any preference for Plenković. On the contrary, I believe that we do not have anyone better than Milanović, unfortunately. But their conflict is often an end in itself, like those two proverbial goats on a log," adds Šiber.
Professor Šiber, who is considered a pioneer of modern political marketing in Croatia, says of the "Zoran List" that it is an "unnecessary circus".
"And harmful, because it will weaken the SDP: Milanović will take some of the votes, Mozemo will take some, and the SDP will be left with what is left, perhaps very little. I'm sorry for taking such a risk - that party is also my work, or my misdeed, as you like."
As an alternative, he sees the possibility of Milanović returning to lead the SDP, which would be a drastic measure within the party. This would, in fact, acknowledge the thesis that the party has failed to find a new successful leader over the past ten years.
The dead hold the living by the legs
"Such a maneuver would definitely have a significant chance of success, while this one with an independent list most likely would not," believes Ivan Šiber.
When asked about a possible programmatic difference between such an independent list and the SDP, as well as Možemo, Šiber reacted violently: "I thought we were having a serious conversation! So who cares about the program anymore?"
He explains that programs were once truly valued – the left was in favor of taxing the rich and strong social programs, and against militarization.
"Please point me to any relevant comparative analysis of the programs of the left and right in Croatia, if anyone is doing that anymore - because the parties themselves are not doing that, except to some extent Mozome, as a more recent phenomenon," concludes this political scientist.
When asked where the remaining difference between the two political poles is, Šiber resignedly answers with two words that function as a well-known code in the Croatian political space: "Jasenovac, Bleiburg."
All publicly emphasized political issues in Croatia, according to this assessment, boil down to this opposition, as if nothing else existed.
However, it would rather obscure the real social problems of the modern era, regardless of the fact that some of them can be viewed through opposites such as "fascism or anti-fascism" and "conservative or liberal".
Šiber believes that Croatia is a hostage to the past and its revisionist interpretation, with no end in sight: "The dead hold the living by the legs," as Karl Marx said.
Balloons Escapade
Political analyst Jaroslav Pecnik, once a politician himself, is inclined to assume that behind the news about the "Zoran List" lies an agreement between the president of the state and SDP president Siniša Hajdaš Dončić.
The reason could be the impression that HDZ focused on Zagreb Mayor Tomislav Tomašević from the Mozome party as the first face of the opposition. Thus, Milanović's affirmation as an oppositionist and SDP member would be a message not only to HDZ, but also to its partners on the center-left.
"Milanović is prone to escapades anyway," says Pecnik, "so this is probably a kind of trial balloon. That is both his advantage and disadvantage. But you should know that he will not work for others - if he gets involved, he will want to be the prime ministerial candidate. And that will be reflected across the entire left."
Above all, Pecnik believes that the early, unofficial announcement of Milanović's candidacy also serves to gauge Plenković's strength.
In his opinion, the center-left may be assessing that the Croatian Prime Minister and HDZ leader has somewhat "spent" himself after a long and turbulent reign.
"But that is not the only reason. There is a weighing up on multiple levels: internally in the SDP, more broadly in the coalition with Možemo, and externally towards the HDZ. I have the impression that this project was designed with this multiple goal in mind. It is also striking that the possibility of Milanović's separate candidacy was announced long before the elections, leaving room for plans to change in the meantime," concludes Jaroslav Pecnik.
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