Russian influence remains a threat: US intelligence agencies warn of instability in the Western Balkans

US intelligence agencies warned in their latest annual report that the Western Balkans remains an area of ​​heightened political tensions and external influences, with Russia's role in destabilizing the region particularly prominent.

The "Annual Threat Assessment 2026" report, published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States, states that the war in Ukraine has deepened divisions between the West and Moscow, which is also reflected in the Balkans.

Russia, it is alleged, "is encouraging instability between Serbia, which it favors, and Kosovo," but also "supports the separation of the Republika Srpska entity from Bosnia and Herzegovina."

American services assess that ethnic and political divisions in the region remain pronounced, and that they pose a potential security risk, especially in combination with the influence of foreign actors.

The report describes the Western Balkans as an area where the interests of major powers intersect, and existing crises and unresolved disputes, including relations between Serbia and Kosovo, and internal political relations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, remain key sources of instability, the report published on March 18 stated.

The report also warns of a broader range of threats in Europe, including political influence, disinformation and attempts to undermine the security architecture, with the Balkans seen as a particularly sensitive area.

The report also warns of broader global threats, including growing competition between great powers, primarily between the United States, China and Russia, as well as the rapid development of cyber attacks and technologies that can be used to destabilize states.

It also highlights the risks of terrorism, organised crime and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, which continue to pose long-term security challenges.

The report also warns of the ongoing threat of terrorism, especially from individuals or small groups inspired by extremist ideologies, who operate without direct connection to organized networks.

Although the capacities of major terrorist organizations have been weakened, the risk of low-intensity attacks remains present, including in Europe, the report says.