Viktor Orban and Milorad Dodik have been building a relationship for years that went beyond the usual diplomatic cooperation. The Hungarian Prime Minister came to Banja Luka and Republika Srpska as a political partner who openly challenges part of the Western approach to the region, while Dodik gained a European leader ready to relativize the pressures from Sarajevo, Brussels and Western capitals. In this context, Hungarian support was not only a political message, but also an instrument of influence through loans, investments and energy arrangements.
Politics and finance
The connection between Orban and Dodik was not only symbolic, but also concrete political and financial. Hungary had previously announced and financed projects in Republika Srpska, including three projects worth more than 100 million euros, including the Hrgud Wind Farm, the Trebišnjica hydroelectric power plant and the Gradiška wastewater treatment plant. There was also talk of direct assistance in energy projects in RS worth hundreds of millions of dollars. After Sunday's elections, it is possible that this course of Hungary with Peter Magyars at the helm will change significantly, if not completely.
Dodik says that Republika Srpska will remain grateful to Orban for everything he has done in understanding its position.
"We have always been alone here in a way, except for Serbia and Russia. And we had the neoliberal world against us. Orban was the voice of reason there. I want to see him as soon as possible and talk about how we will move forward," said Dodik, who does not believe that previously started projects will be suspended.
"If there is a break, it will be a unilateral break from the Hungarian side. On our side, we will move on if possible. If not, we lived without it five, six years ago," says Dodik.
Orban's defeat hits those who saw him as a representative of the "alternative West" ready to understand different policies hardest. For Dodik, it means the loss of an important international support at a time when every foreign policy shield is precious to him, especially after a series of crises and disputes with BiH institutions.
New political reality
For Aleksandar Vučić, the message is similar. One of the most important leaders in the EU, who often served as proof that a policy of balancing between Brussels, Moscow and national interests can be pursued without major consequences, is disappearing. In this situation, Serbia also carries the "burden" of an earlier agreement on the sale of part of the Oil Industry of Serbia to the Hungarian MOL, about which Vučić is optimistic.
"I believe in the continuation of good cooperation between Hungary and Serbia and I am grateful to Viktor Orban for making such relations possible," said Vučić, congratulating the Hungarian on his election victory.
The new political reality does not mean that all ties will disappear overnight, but it does mean that the political atmosphere is changing. The new balance of power in Budapest is likely to be less inclined towards personal alliances and more tied to institutional policies towards the region.
"If the new Hungarian government wants to distance itself from Orban's model, Dodik and Vučić will be left without an important part of the narrative about international support that they used in domestic politics," believes journalist Goran Dakić.
Dodik previously described Orban as a friend and partner with whom he discusses “strategic projects” in energy and agriculture, emphasizing that Republika Srpska wants to build an economy with those who “understand and respect it.” Such rhetoric shows how politically he has tied his story to Hungarian protection and investments. On the other hand, the opposition in Republika Srpska has been warning for years that behind this cooperation lies political dependence and financial arrangements that lack sufficient transparency. This tone was further reinforced after Hungarian loans and projects in energy and agriculture.
A new chapter for BiH?
The leader of the opposition Serbian Democratic Party (SDS), Branko Blanuša, believes that Peter Mađar will continue to foster friendly relations and strengthen institutional cooperation with Republika Srpska, which will benefit the people, not just individuals.
"I say to our Serbian people in Republika Srpska: let's look at the Hungarians who have shown that they expect the government to serve the people, not the other way around," said Blanusa.
The attitude towards Orban from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and diplomatic circles in Sarajevo was mostly reserved, at times critical, especially after he openly sided with Dodik. The Bosnian and Herzegovina Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other officials in Sarajevo have repeatedly emphasized the need to preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while Hungarian statements and moves have often been perceived as interference in the country's internal affairs. In this sense, Orban's fall was greeted in Sarajevo as a weakening of a policy that had provoked various political reactions in Bosnia and Herzegovina.
"We look forward to a new chapter in relations between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary, based on mutual respect, true partnership and shared European values," said BiH Foreign Minister Elmedin Konaković, who previously expressed open disagreement with official Budapest when it came to supporting the leadership of Republika Srpska, especially during the political conflict following the Dodik verdict.
HDZ BiH leader Dragan Čović also congratulated the winner of the Hungarian election, writing that he "looks forward to strong cooperation and good relations between the two governments and peoples in the coming period."
Along with Čović, Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković also sent his congratulations to the Hungarian, saying that this is a political change due to the will of the voters and that he expects progress from Budapest at the level of decision-making within the EU.
"Now is the time to put our relations on a new foundation and try to resolve open issues," said Plenković in Mostar.
Political mathematics
On the other hand, the crux of the problem for Dodik and Vučić is not just one electoral defeat, but the disappearance of a partner who gave their policies European legitimacy. Orban was useful because he showed that there was a leader in the EU who challenged the dominant Brussels approach, criticized sanctions and openly supported individual leaders in the Balkans. His defeat now weakens that matrix and leaves less room for political appeals to the “Hungarian model” or to Budapest as a protector.
For Republika Srpska, this could also mean a more cautious attitude towards future Hungarian projects, especially in energy and agriculture. Hungarian loans and investments are not just an economic issue, but also a political lever, and the new government in Budapest could seek different conditions or a cooler tone towards Dodik. This is an important change because these projects often built a story about the international normalization of relations that other actors in BiH considered problematic.
It will now be crucial to monitor whether the new Hungarian government will continue at least some of the existing arrangements or revise them. If there is a cooling-off, Dodik will lose both a symbolic and practical channel to a part of the EU, while Vučić will be left without an important regional ally in European institutions. This could increase the pressure on both policies to rely more on internal control and less on external protection.
Phoenix position
"Mr. Orban has pursued, to put it mildly, an inappropriate policy - not only in BiH, but also in the region, favoring only one side. So whatever happens in the future cannot be worse than what Orban has been doing," believes political analyst Faruk Kajtaz.
Orban's defeat is therefore much more than a Hungarian story. For Dodik, it is the end of a political illusion that with the help of Budapest, internal and Western pressure can be cushioned. For Vučić, it is a warning that the circle of leaders who served him as a European shield is narrowing, and the political cost of such reliance is increasing.
However, there are quite a few politicians in Republika Srpska who believe that the Hungarian victory is just a continuation of the same policy, which in the long run could prove to be a good choice not only for the Hungarians, but also for Viktor Orban's "friends".
"Orban lost the political battle, but he struck the foundations of European sovereignty, anti-migrant and anti-war policies," says the Speaker of the National Assembly of Republika Srpska Nenad Stevandić, a member of the ruling coalition. Politically, Stevandić says, Orban remained in the position of a phoenix and gentlemanly admitted defeat.
"The Hungarian is his student. Is he leaving or starting again," asked Stevandić. He will certainly get the answer immediately after the formation of the government in Hungary.
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