German and Austrian media: Orban's defeat is bad news for his Balkan allies

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper carries an article by Vienna correspondent Michael Martens, in which the author considers the question of what Orban's defeat means for his allies in the Balkans:

"The removal of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban from power in Hungary is also the defeat of his three most important political partners in the Balkans. For Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, Bosnian Serb separatist leader Milorad Dodik and Macedonian Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski, their most important political ally in the EU is gone. Since his re-election in 2010, Orban has worked hard to build a network of illiberal think tanks, media outlets and parties, which he has expanded, supported or made obedient with generous financial payments, and whose future is now uncertain.

Orban's most powerful partner in the region was Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. Just last week, Serbian authorities staged a dubious political spectacle that most observers interpreted as Belgrade's electoral aid to Orban: Serbian military intelligence, according to its own claims, thwarted plans to attack a pipeline that supplies Serbia and Hungary with Russian gas.

"I want to thank Serbia for its swift and efficient action. They prevented a major catastrophe," Orban said on the occasion. The alleged discoveries in Serbia gave him the opportunity to deploy the army in his country to secure the allegedly endangered gas pipeline, which in the final phase of the election campaign brought martial images of Orban as a defender of Hungarian interests. However, this did him no good. It would not be surprising if the investigation into the alleged assassination plot in Serbia is now quickly forgotten.

A network built over 15 years won't fall apart overnight

"Orban's other important client in the region is Bosnian Serb politician Milorad Dodik, who has been banned from politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina for several years but still retains considerable influence. He has been advocating for years for the secession of Republika Srpska, the Serb-dominated part of the country, from the rest of the state. Orban has not explicitly supported this separatism, but he has supported former Republika Srpska President Dodik," the Frankfurt newspaper writes.

The article also recalls that former North Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski, who was convicted of abuse of office in 2018, fled to Hungary, where he was granted political refugee status in an emergency procedure. Orban's close ties with current Macedonian Prime Minister Mickoski are also highlighted. Loans to Orban's Balkan allies are also mentioned, as well as the purchase of media outlets that then report in line with the government's line.

"Such a network, built over fifteen years, especially in the media sector with its complex ownership structures, will not fall apart overnight just because Orban lost power. However, in recent years, there have already been reports that financial support from Budapest has become increasingly scarce, and in some cases completely absent. The fact that the EU is not paying out billions of euros from its funds due to rule of law violations and other violations in Hungary has not been without consequences."

At the end of the article, the focus returns to Serbia: “In Serbia, the opposition now hopes that Orban’s fall could also mark the political end of Vučić. The great wave of protests in Serbia against his system of rule has subsided, but it has left its mark. If the rebellious students were to come out in the next parliamentary elections with their own list, it is not excluded that the dominance of Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party could be shaken. However, it is unclear what such a student list could look like. In addition, there is no opposition politician in Serbia who has even remotely as much support as Peter Magjar. The election date has also not yet been set. However, the illiberal axis in the Western Balkans has clearly been weakened by Orban’s loss of power,” concludes the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

"Bad news for Serbia"

The Stuttgarter Zeitung also writes about the election results in Hungary: "Not only will Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin mourn the loss of his most reliable information channel and his spokesperson in the European Union. For power holders like US President Donald Trump and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, as well as for the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), the fall of this autocrat should be a warning signal. It shows that national egoism and ruthless confrontation cannot replace international cooperation. Personal enrichment and the accumulation of positions are never worth it. And in the long run, the will of the voters can hardly be ignored, even in a 'guided' democracy."

Salzburger Nahrichten publishes an article entitled: “The election result in Hungary is bad news for Serbia”. The author states that “Viktor Orban and Serbian President Vučić, according to analysts, have cultivated a ‘brotherhood’ in an authoritarian style of governance”. He then adds: “Serbia has not been making any progress in approaching the European Union for some time now – on the contrary: since the beginning of student and civil protests in Serbia at the end of 2024, and especially in recent months, the authorities’ efforts to bring the judiciary, critical media, and even universities and other critics under their complete control have been further intensified. Only a few days ago, European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos hinted that, given the situation, further disbursement of funds to Serbia from the EU growth plan in the amount of 1,5 billion euros could be suspended.”