Who will succeed Christian Schmidt?

The departure of Christian Schmidt from the position of High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, according to analysts, has opened up three processes at the same time. The first is institutional, because now the continuity of the OHR's ​​work needs to be ensured and a successor appointed. The second is political, because domestic actors immediately turned his departure into evidence for their own narratives. And the third is geopolitical, because behind a personal change, the question of whether the international community is changing not only the man, but also the model of governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasingly apparent.

"The message we received from the forced resignation of Kristijan Šmit is worrying. I think many are not aware of the danger BiH finds itself in," warns political analyst from Banja Luka Tanja Topić, pointing out that this confirms that Šmit's move is the result of an agreement between Dodik and the US administration last year, when previously imposed sanctions were lifted.

Decisions that caused a lot of problems

The OHR confirmed that Schmidt had made a personal decision to end his service after almost five years in office and had informed the Peace Implementation Council Steering Board. The same message stressed that he would remain in office until his successor was selected, sending a signal that the OHR was not entering a vacuum and that the transition should be controlled. The OHR further stated that Schmidt had assessed his term as a period of “significant progress” in the functionality of the institutions, but that the work was not done, as BiH had not yet fulfilled key reforms and conditions from the “5+2 Programme”.

This progress could be debated - it is the position of the majority of the political and professional public in BiH, regardless of which side of the ethnic camp they come from.

Christian Schmidt made several decisions during his term, but several of them were crucial, as they directly changed the political and legal terrain in BiH. The most important were the interventions in the electoral and constitutional system of the Federation of BiH, which is still seen as a wrong move today. Then there was the decision to unblock the formation of the Government of the Federation of BiH, the annulment of laws adopted by the National Assembly of Republika Srpska, and amendments to the Criminal Code of BiH that made disrespect for the decisions of the High Representative a criminal offense.

It was this decision that led to the removal of Milorad Dodik from the position of President of Republika Srpska, after he was sentenced under that law to one year in prison – a sentence he commuted to a fine – and a six-year ban on political activity.

Pyrrhic victory

In Banja Luka, the reaction to Schmidt's departure remains triumphant. Milorad Dodik reiterated that Schmidt is leaving "as he came - without legitimacy, without a decision by the UN Security Council and without international law on his side", and then further reinforced the political message by claiming that Schmidt "tried to do a lot of evil", but that in the end he only confirmed that Republika Srpska is "indestructible".

This reaction also carries a strong layer of political irony. It is Schmidt who, through his interventions, analysts say, especially through changes to the legal framework and the use of the “Bonn powers”, has become a key figure in international pressure on Dodik. In public and political terms, Schmidt personified the attempt to limit Dodik’s power, and now Dodik himself is presenting his departure as a personal and strategic victory – which is debatable given the verdict that removed him from the post of President of the RS.

"Dodik and the authorities in Republika Srpska won this battle, which was aimed at expelling Schmidt from BiH at all costs. Part of that agreement was for Dodik himself to step down, but he is still pulling all the strings today and shows no signs of going into political retirement," says Tanja Topić, warning that after this move, a fight for the independence of Republika Srpska is also announced.

In Sarajevo, the tone is much more cautious. Bakir Izetbegović, the leader of the SDA – the party that Šmit ousted from power by amending the Election Law and suspending the Constitution of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina – said that Šmit's resignation was his "personal choice and act", but at the same time warned that it must not have any consequences for the role and functioning of the OHR.

OHR (must) not remain

"It is necessary to appoint Schmidt's successor as soon as possible," said Izetbegović, warning that the OHR must remain until the conditions of the "5+2 Program" are met and effective mechanisms for unblocking the state are established.

"Every other scenario leads Bosnia and Herzegovina towards new blockades and additional instability. All important international factors operating within the Peace Implementation Council must be aware of the dangers posed by such a development," said Izetbegović.

Schmidt surprised his direct political opponent, Elmedin Konaković, president of the People and Justice party, with his resignation, because he expected a different scenario. He also places the resignation in the context of external pressure.

"Maybe he couldn't stand the pressure. I agree with those who are calling him out and calling on him to say, if there was pressure, who it came from and what was required of him. Because it's strange that he was a little hasty with his resignation," Konaković said in Brussels, where he was attending an informal meeting of the foreign ministers of the European Union member states and the Western Balkans.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kalas, also spoke out from Brussels, warning that the functioning of BiH could become more complicated after the departure of Christian Schmidt.

"The ministers agree that it is in the interest of the European Union not to allow the country to deviate from the European path and that we should stick together in finding Schmidt's successor," said Kallas.

"The Europeans are still retreating before the Americans, so they handed over Schmidt without a fight, and BiH is still left with fragile institutions, non-existent rule of law and attacks on sovereignty. In the middle of all this are American and economic interests, so the question is what price BiH will pay," Topić points out.

Italian connection

On the other hand, the HDZ BiH announced that after more than three decades, it was time for domestic and legitimately elected officials to take full responsibility for Bosnia and Herzegovina, with the message that membership in the European Union was not compatible with international supervision. The party even proposed that the OHR be relocated from BiH, which is a clear political signal that the Croat bloc sees Šmit's departure as an opportunity to redefine the relationship between domestic politics and international governance.

In this context, interest is particularly growing in the question of who could succeed Schmidt. There is no official confirmation yet, but media and diplomatic sources are already mentioning several names. Among the most frequently cited are Italian diplomats Antonio Zanardi Landi and Emmanuel Gioffre, with some sources claiming that it is the Italian profile that has the support of Washington. Earlier speculations have included the names Karen Pierce, Matthew Rycroft and also Emmanuel Gioffre, which shows that there are several Western candidates with different diplomatic pedigrees in circulation.

If Schmidt's successor is someone with a stronger American background, analysts believe, it will be interpreted as a signal that Washington wants to manage the next phase of the crisis in Bosnia more directly. If a candidate closer to the European institutional profile prevails, it would be a signal that the EU is trying to regain some of the political initiative it has lost for years. In both cases, the selection of a successor, it is estimated, will not be a mere personnel procedure, but a message about who really sets the rules in Bosnia and Herzegovina.