Transatlantic conflict over Bosnia and Herzegovina's back?

Following a two-day session of the Peace Implementation Council (PIC), High Representative Christian Schmidt stated that full consensus had been reached on the continuation of the OHR's ​​mandate. Schmidt expects an agreement on his successor to be reached by the end of June, saying that the OHR remains a key pillar of stability in BiH until the conditions for transition are met.

However, his optimism was quickly overshadowed by a harsh reaction from Washington.

Namely, the US Embassy expressed disappointment that the PIC did not elect a new High Representative on June 3rd and 4th.

The American delegation sought consensus on Italian diplomat Antonio Zanardi Landi, and the Embassy says it acknowledges “the European failure to reach consensus on a European candidate.” It warns that European indecision is forcing them to reconsider their role in the international presence in BiH.

The EU delegation and the embassies of the member states have confirmed that the new High Representative, according to practice, should again come from the Union, and they say that they want to complete the appointment of Schmidt's successor by the end of the month.

Bećirović on OHR with Merco and Macron

The Chairman of the Presidency of BiH, Denis Bećirović, met separately with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron, on the sidelines of the EU-Western Balkans summit in Tivat.

In an interview with Merco, Bećirović said that the appointment of the new High Representative must be carried out in the same manner as before, and that the OHR must retain its full mandate and authority to protect the Dayton Agreement.

Southern Interconnection as a stake in diplomatic trade

The Prime Minister of the Federation of BiH, Nermin Nikšić, assessed that the US is exerting strong diplomatic pressure to ensure the election of a new High Representative and the stability of the OHR, and that this should not be lightly ignored.

He emphasizes that it is crucial for BiH that the position of High Representative maintains its full capacity and authority, and warns that weakening or blocking the OHR at this geopolitical moment could produce "serious destabilizing consequences."

Within the pro-European forces in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina entity, they believe that Western pressure can also be used for diplomatic trade.

Our Party MP Sabina Ćudić called on domestic authorities not to ratify the Southern Gas Interconnection agreement until the US clearly presents its plans for the future of the OHR and Schmidt's successor. Ćudić stressed that Sarajevo must take a much stronger stance towards international actors "so that the transition within the OHR does not come at the expense of stability and state institutions."

Cvijanović for the abolition of the Bonn authorizations

Although she supports "American efforts to reaffirm the sovereignty of BiH and the internal dialogue of the constituent peoples", BiH Presidency member Željka Cvijanović calls for the role of the High Representative to be returned to the framework of Annex 10 until it is completely abolished, and for "the Bonn powers, as a key source of political crises, to be immediately removed".

Along the same lines, after a meeting in St. Petersburg with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, SNSD leader Milorad Dodik stressed that "Russia remains committed to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of BiH according to the Dayton Agreement."

Dodik stressed that this sovereignty implies "the immediate cessation of the work of the OHR and the departure of foreign judges from the Constitutional Court of BiH", which runs counter to the attempts of Western allies to reach an agreement on a new High Representative within the PIC.

HNS for shutting down the OHR

The parties gathered around the HNS (Croatian National Assembly) have expressed a unified position that the OHR should definitely end its mandate in the country. It was stated that the extension of international governance and interventionism only amnesties domestic leaders from political responsibility, which is why the HNS says that the role of the international community should shift from an executive to an advisory role.

This position largely corresponds with the signals that Croatia is sending to the Peace Implementation Council.

Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković confirmed that the replacement of the head of the OHR is certain, emphasizing that Zagreb's key demand is that the new High Representative "drastically reduce the use of emergency mechanisms." Plenković claims that the excessive use of Bonn powers for twenty years has introduced an imbalance into the Dayton Agreement and directly weakened the position of Croats in Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the question of the duration of the OHR itself remains open.

Sužanj: these are major infrastructure projects

BHRT journalist Amir Sužanj told DW that the failure to appoint a new High Representative has exposed the "deep absurdity" in which the international community in BiH finds itself - while some PIC members are advocating the closure of the OHR, at the same time there is unprecedented interest among global factors in who will succeed Christian Schmidt.

Behind Washington's "convulsive struggle" for OHR leverage are actually major infrastructure and energy projects, explains a BHRT journalist.

"European powers are not ready to confirm a high representative to American taste, who would primarily pursue Washington's interests in large energy projects, such as the Southern Interconnection gas pipeline," says Sužanj.

The new American administration, he says, wants a person at the head of the institution who will have unlimited influence in order to negotiate legal solutions tailored to the appetites of contractors.

"What does the 'Southern Interconnection' project and all future projects that are interesting to American investors mean to BiH, if the future High Representative, in the interest of realizing that project, makes decisions that will leave BiH without state property," warns Sužanj.

Sužanj rejects the possibility of a real US withdrawal from Bosnia and Herzegovina, because Dayton is their original political project, and leaving would mean a “painful defeat for the American administration.” He concludes that the failure to appoint Schmidt’s successor “has opened up major issues, of which, however one interprets these political confrontations, almost none are aimed at protecting the interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina itself.”