North Macedonia 25 years since the Ohrid Agreement: Peace without reconciliation

The six-month conflict that erupted in North Macedonia (then Macedonia) in February 2001 is often described as the final chapter in the violent breakup of Yugoslavia. However, unlike the wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo, the conflict was stopped before it escalated into a greater tragedy, largely thanks to a political compromise brokered by NATO, the United States, and leading EU countries.

Twenty-five years later, the political order created by the Ohrid Framework Agreement is entering a new phase. Following the return of the conservative VMRO-DPMNE party to power two years ago, the Democratic Union for Integration (DUI), the main ethnic Albanian party, has moved into opposition.

This ended the two-decade rule of Ali Ahmeti, who had transformed himself from the leader of the National Liberation Army (NLA) during the 2001 conflict into one of the most influential political figures in the country.

Ahmeti, who after the Ohrid Agreement traded his guerrilla uniform for tailored black suits and white shirts, now claims that ethnic relations have deteriorated over the past two years.

"Attacks on the official use of the Albanian language, the abolition of fair and adequate representation, the weakening of mechanisms designed to prevent majoritarianism, and the promotion of a monoethnic concept of the state are serious signals about the direction in which the country is moving," he said in a statement on the occasion of August 2, the national holiday of North Macedonia.

As a country with a large Albanian minority, North Macedonia has struggled for much of the past quarter century to balance ethnic diversity with a stable political system. According to the latest census, Albanians make up 29,5 percent of the total population, including 24,3 percent of resident citizens.

For Bujar Osmani, a senior DUI official and former foreign minister, the key question is no longer how well the Ohrid Agreement has been implemented, but whether its achievements can be preserved.

"On the 25th anniversary of the Ohrid Agreement, the question is no longer just what we have implemented since 2001. The question is whether we will allow what has kept North Macedonia stable for two and a half decades to be dismantled in the next few years," he told DW.

A wound that has not completely healed

The legacy of the 2001 conflict is still felt strongly. 72 soldiers and police were killed in the fighting, while the number of ethnic Albanian rebel deaths remains a matter of dispute, with estimates ranging from around a hundred to several hundred. More than 170.000 people were displaced, including 74.000 within the country itself.

The Ohrid Framework Agreement, which ended the conflict, reshaped North Macedonia's political system and introduced power-sharing mechanisms aimed at giving minority communities greater influence in decision-making. Laws dealing with sensitive issues, such as language, education, and national symbols, require the support not only of the parliamentary majority, but also of minority community representatives.

Although such a solution is largely in line with European standards for the protection of minority rights, it has not ended disputes over equality and representation.

“The agreement has achieved a large part of its historical mission, but its essence cannot be said to have been fully achieved,” Osmani said. “Ohrid is not an administrative checklist that is filled out once and then filed away. It is a system of balance that must be constantly respected.”

The Macedonian majority also expresses dissatisfaction

Different interpretations of the legacy of the Ohrid Agreement remain at the center of debate. While many ethnic Macedonians believe that affirmative action policies have unfairly favored Albanians, Albanian politicians argue that the real problem is the gradual erosion of rights guaranteed by the agreement.

“There is discrimination that frustrates many members of the Macedonian community, as Albanians are often given priority in employment to meet public sector quotas,” said Stojance Angelov, a police general during the 2001 conflict.

Angelov believes that such a practice puts ethnicity ahead of professional qualifications.

Osmani rejects such an interpretation and argues that recent government policies have weakened the protection mechanisms for Albanians introduced after the conflict.

"Initially, all of this was covered up with political propaganda, technical explanations and claims that it was just about modernizing the system. Today, as that noise gradually subsides, it is becoming much clearer what is actually being questioned," he said.

Defensive nationalism on the rise

Domestic and international observers warn that years of political crises and disputes over national identity have slowed reforms and further entrenched ethnic divisions.

Harald Schenker of the German peacebuilding organization Pro Peace says the Ohrid Agreement transformed North Macedonia's institutions, but not necessarily the relations between its communities.

"Ethnic distance is growing, the education system remains divided, and the two communities understand each other less and less," he told DW.

According to Schenker, the agreement created new institutions and governance rules, but failed to foster reconciliation or build a shared vision of the future.

"Each side has retained its own interpretation of what happened in 2001. After 25 years, there is a need for platforms where people can openly discuss these differences. Different perspectives exist, but people need to talk to each other," he said.

At the same time, years of stagnation in European integration have added to uncertainty about the country’s direction. North Macedonia was granted EU candidate status in 2005, but negotiations have yet to formally begin. After overcoming a decades-long dispute with Greece over the country’s name, Skopje has faced new obstacles stemming from Bulgaria’s claims regarding history, language, and national identity.

The long-term stalemate has not only slowed down reform processes, but also deepened interethnic tensions, as the prospect of EU membership, as one of the rare joint projects shared by both Macedonians and Albanians, is increasingly dim.

In this context, questions about the future of North Macedonia remain closely linked to the legacy of the Ohrid Agreement. Next month, the country will mark 35 years since it gained independence from Yugoslavia.

Osmani does not believe there is a danger of a new conflict, but warns that ethnic tensions could gradually increase.

"I don't believe that citizens want a new problem. But ethnic tensions don't start with conflict. They start when one community gradually loses confidence that the system treats them as equals," he said.

Angelov shares that sentiment. “For me, the greatest achievement is that we used to look at each other through rifle sights, and today I’m having coffee with some of the veterans of the Albanian ONA,” he said.