European leaders are united in wanting Italian Prime Minister Matteo Rencio to succeed in the constitutional referendum scheduled for December 4, but that very success could pave the way for comedian and activist Beppe Grillo's populist "Five Star Movement" to win in the 2018 elections, which could threaten eurozone.
"EU leaders should be careful what they wish for," writes a politico.eu article titled "Mateo Renzi may be headed for a Pyrrhic victory."
It is stated that "with Brexit, the newly elected US President Donald Trump, an emboldened Russia, the upcoming elections in France and Germany and the challenge of political populism, the list of what needs to be done is long enough without an additional crisis in Rome".
"If Renzi succeeds on December 4, Italy will be governed by a system that gives the Five Star Movement a greater, not a lesser, chance of winning power in 2018. Just as Brexit poses a fundamental threat to the EU, a victory for the Five Star Movement could endangers the Eurozone," politico.eu assesses.
It explains that "'Yes' in Renzi's constitutional referendum, designed to curb the power of the Italian Senate, will allow the reform of Italy's electoral system that was carried out earlier this year to take effect".
"These changes introduced a second round of elections that guarantees the winner an absolute majority in parliament and therefore a one-party government. This new system, known as the 'Italicum', may sound great in theory when you consider Italy's history of dysfunctional politics. In practice, it could prove to be a problem," the text reads.
It states that "the 'Five Star Movement' is currently behind Renzi's ruling Democratic Party in the polls".
"But he has a significant advantage when the poll is about the second round of the election. This should be a cause for alarm. Not only are the members of the 'Five Star Movement' very inexperienced, but they are also ideological populists," the text states.
It is stated that "since (Italy) is the third largest economy in the Eurozone and a founding country of the EU, a solution similar to the one in the case of Greece imposed by Germany and other creditors would be unthinkable".
"The alternative would be a disaster. Either the Five Star Movement would be forced to perform a total U-turn along the lines of (Greece's ruling party) Syriza and accept the obligations imposed by eurozone membership, or the government would probably fall. But before one or something else happened, great damage would be done to Italy and the Eurozone would be dangerously weakened," writes politico.eu.
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