By any measure, this has been a hellish year for the European Union. And if the British vote to leave the bloc, the next one could be even worse.
Not since 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell and communism began to stumble across Eastern Europe, has the continent's geopolitical scene been shaken so violently.
However, unlike that year of "joyful" turmoil, which paved the way for European integration, the crisis of 2015 threatened to tear the EU apart and leave it tormented, hopeless and facing new obstacles.
The fall of the "Iron Curtain" within two years led to the agreement to create a single European currency and over the next 15 years, to the expansion of the EU and NATO eastwards to the very borders of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
Then it seemed that the prediction of the founder Jean Monnet that a united Europe would emerge from the crisis was coming true.
In contrast, this year's political and economic shocks from refugee flows, Greek debt, Islamist violence and Russian military action have led to the reintroduction of border controls in many places, the rise of populist anti-EU political forces and infighting among EU governments.
Jean-Claude Juncker, who describes the European Commission as a "last chance", has warned that the Schengen zone is in danger and that the euro is unlikely to survive if the borders are closed.
Juncker resorted to dark humor after the last of the 12 EU summits held this year and said: "The current crises will remain and new ones will come."
His pessimistic tone was a wake-up call after the "we can do it" spirit that German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to apply to the reception of hundreds of thousands of mostly Syrian refugees.
Merkel did not get enough support from her EU partners, and most of them, instead of welcoming a considerable number of refugees, advocated for the closure of Europe's external borders.
This is partly the result of latent dissatisfaction with German dominance in the EU and a kind of revenge for Berlin's reluctance to take on more financial risk in the eurozone.
Some partners also accuse Berlin of hypocrisy over energy ties with Russia, while friends like France, the Netherlands and Denmark are simply horrified by the rise of right-wing populists at home.
One of the sharpest criticisms of refugee burden-sharing came from a close friend, France. Namely, Prime Minister Manuel Valls commented on Merkel's open door policy towards Syrian refugees: "It was not France that said: Come."
One of the problems that is likely to worsen in 2016 is that the main European political leaders are so weak and preoccupied with problems on the domestic scene that they cannot take the necessary joint actions.
Attacks by extremists on the streets of Paris in January and November marked the year of French President Francois Hollande and shocked Europe by highlighting the threat posed by Islamists from within and the shortcomings of European police and intelligence cooperation.
France's influence in Europe has been reduced by the country's economic weaknesses as Hollande battles for primacy in the 2017 election, where he will face right-wing Marine Le Pen and conservative Nicolas Sarkozy.
As for British Prime Minister David Cameron, he is only interested in reaching a dignified agreement on changes to the conditions under which Britain will remain in the EU in order to win the referendum that he has indicated will be held next year.
If the second largest economy in Europe and one of the largest military powers becomes the first member to ever vote to leave the bloc, it will be a strong blow to the bloc's self-confidence and international credibility.
Hard-line European federalists want to believe that Britain's exit would encourage the remaining members to move closer together in a union built around the eurozone.
However, they ignore the multitude of divisions such as East vs. West, North vs. South, Free Market vs. Protectionist, Socialist vs. Conservative, and Sovereignist vs. Integrationist among the 27 member states.
It is more likely that Britain's exit would lead to calls for referendums in other countries, from Poland to Denmark. With the example of Denmark, we recently saw the political risk when governments anywhere in Europe ask voters if they want closer cooperation in the EU. The answer was "no way" - no thanks.
If Cameron wins and Britain remains on improved terms, some fear there could be political contagion as other nationalist leaders could be tempted to try his tactics and start blackmailing Brussels for their own needs.
"Unfortunately, we need Cameron to win," said one senior EU official. "However, it is a big risk for the EU as a whole".
At the last summit, everyone was against Merkel
Critics took aim at German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the latest European Union summit. Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, backed by Portugal and Greece, attacked her for not agreeing to accept a bank deposit guarantee plan in the eurozone.
The Baltic states and Bulgaria and Italy have criticized her support for a direct gas pipeline from Russia to Germany at a time when the European Union is imposing sanctions on Moscow over its military activities in Ukraine and when construction of a gas pipeline to southern Europe has been canceled.
"In that room, almost everyone was against Merkel," said one diplomat who attended the conversation.
Conservative Angela Merkel's survival in power over the next year depends on her ability to reduce the number of refugees arriving in Germany and demonstrate that immigration is under control.
(edited by: Nada Bogetić)
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