Great Britain will be economically worse off after leaving the European Union (EU) than if it remained in it, regardless of what kind of trade agreement it makes with the EU, according to an analysis by the British government.
According to the estimate published today, 15 years after leaving the EU, British GDP will be 0,6 percent lower than if it remained in the EU, provided that trade is not hindered. If it leaves the EU without an agreement and there are significant barriers to trade, British GDP will be 9,3 percent lower.
The report analyzed several options, from leaving without a deal to staying in the EU's single market for goods and services.
The analysis was released as Prime Minister Theresa May tries to persuade MPs to back the government's exit deal with the EU.
Finance Minister Philip Hammond told the BBC that while the UK would be economically worse off in all scenarios, Prime Minister May's plan was the best available.
According to the analysis of the Ministry of Finance, if Theresa May's plan is implemented, in 15 years Great Britain will have a 3,9 percent lower GDP compared to remaining in the EU.
Hammond said that leaving the EU was not just about the economy and that the Prime Minister's plan would bring "political benefits".
So far, however, it is not certain that May will be able to convince enough MPs, including from her own Conservative Party, to support the deal in a vote in two weeks.
Hammond said that if the deal does not pass parliament, the government will decide the best way to proceed, but will take into account how MPs voted before making that decision.
Fierce conservative Brexiteers, who support the Prime Minister less and less, say that the finance ministry's analysis did not take into account the economic benefits that Great Britain could have with trade agreements around the world, while supporters of remaining in the EU say that this is more of an argument for a new referendum.
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