Sanctions against Moscow will be decided in Brussels next week, and the outcome will have long-term consequences for the political and economic relations between the EU and Russia.
The ministers of foreign affairs of the 27 EU member states will meet today in Brussels to adopt a list of punitive measures against individuals responsible for the attempted secession of Crimea from Ukraine, which the EU has judged to be contrary to international law.
As previously announced, the sanctions will be aimed at the officials of the Crimean authorities who participated in the calling of the referendum on joining Russia, as well as at people from the closest circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and will include the ban on issuing visas and the freezing of their assets.
There are still intensive consultations among the member states about who should be put on the "black list", and the EU is once again divided into "hawks" who want to include as many of Putin's associates on that list as possible, and "doves", who advocate a more cautious approach.
The volume of trade between Russia and the EU last year was close to 400 billion dollars, which makes Russia the third largest trading partner of the EU, after America and China.
Diplomatic circles in Brussels say that Great Britain, along with Sweden, Poland and a group of Baltic countries, is advocating the harshest possible response to Moscow, while the "doves" group includes the Netherlands, Spain and Italy, which do not want to sacrifice close economic ties with Russia. The same sources state that France and Germany are somewhere between those two poles, and the United States also indirectly participates in the discussion, whose president and secretary of state recently spoke to many European leaders by phone and in person.
The sanctions that will be voted today, however, will not be the final European response to the Ukrainian crisis, because already on Thursday the heads of state and government of the member countries will gather in Brussels, and Ukraine will again be on the agenda. Much depends on the situation on the ground after yesterday's Crimean referendum.
In the previous days, it was quite unambiguously announced from Brussels that neither the EU nor the member states will recognize the results of that referendum because, as it is stated, it was held under the watchful eye of the Russian army, and besides, it is against the Ukrainian constitution and international law.
EU diplomats worked late into the night on Sunday, finalizing a list of people in Crimea and Russia who will be subject to travel bans and asset freezes for actions that "threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
An initial list of 120-130 names, including senior officials in Russia's military and political establishment, will be whittled down to perhaps "dozens in the final number" before EU foreign ministers make a final decision at a meeting in Brussels on Monday, diplomats said.
If the Crimean scenario spills over into the south-eastern part of Ukraine, and the Russian Duma announces the annexation of Crimea to Russia at its session on Wednesday, an additional tightening of relations between Brussels and Moscow can be expected, this time with much more serious consequences.
This is the so-called third round of sanctions, which, according to the earlier decision of the European Council, will come into force if Russia continues to violate Ukraine's sovereignty.
These sanctions were announced to be "far-reaching" and could cover a wide range of measures, from an arms embargo to the suspension of existing arrangements in a number of areas, including energy.
EU diplomats were working late last night on a list of people in Crimea and Russia who will be subject to a travel ban and whose assets will be frozen due to actions that "threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine.
An initial list of 120-130 names, including senior officials in Russia's military and political establishment, will be whittled down to perhaps "dozens in the final number" before EU foreign ministers make a final decision at a meeting in Brussels on Monday, diplomats said.
The president of the Social Democrats in the European Parliament, Hans Svoboda, told Reuters on the eve of the EU foreign affairs minister's meeting that he was in favor of targeted sanctions against Russia, but:
"To be clear, we do not need to start a new economic war, because that would be a disaster and at the end of the day, our citizens would not blame Russia, but us in the EU," said Svoboda.
Moscow has already announced that it will respond to such measures reciprocally, so the consequences of mutual sanctions will be serious. The Kremlin announced yesterday that there is no reason for Moscow to change its foreign policy in response to the criticism leveled at it by the other members of the Group of Eight most developed world economies due to its position on Ukraine.
Russia generates as much as 70 percent of the total foreign currency inflow through gas exports, so it would again suffer more severe consequences if the taps on the gas pipelines were to be turned off.
The volume of trade between Russia and the EU last year was close to 400 billion dollars, which makes Russia the third largest trading partner of the EU, after America and China.
On the other hand, the EU is by far Russia's largest trading partner, so the consequences of sanctions would be felt much more in Moscow than in European capitals. When it comes to energy, the EU meets about a third of its total needs for natural gas by importing it from Russia, and certain countries, such as Bulgaria and the Netherlands, are almost completely dependent on Russian gas.
On the other hand, Russia generates around 70 percent of the total foreign currency inflow through gas exports, so it would again suffer more severe consequences if the taps on the gas pipelines were to be turned off.
In Brussels, they remind us that winter is coming to an end and that there is gas in the warehouses for another month of normal consumption, while they are looking for ways to provide alternatives, such as importing liquid gas or switching to oil, just in case.
The President of the European Council, Herman Van Rompuy, and the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, condemned yesterday in a joint statement the holding of the referendum in Crimea, assessing that it is contrary to the Ukrainian Constitution and international law, that it is illegal and illegitimate, and that the outcome of the referendum will not be recognized. .
Although the latest events do not give much reason for optimism, the EU says that it is still possible to reach a compromise, which would consist of Crimea formally remaining in Ukraine with a greater degree of autonomy and guarantees that the rights of the ethnic and ethnic Russian community will not be threatened. If there are no steps in that direction, next week will mark the beginning of the end of partnership relations between Brussels and Moscow, which will not be good for the EU or Russia in the long term.
Bonus video:
