The essential question for the future of Crimea, where a referendum on the annexation of the peninsula to Russia is being held tomorrow, is the consequences for the economy if its citizens decide to sever ties with Ukraine.
A week before the referendum, a Russian parliamentarian announced that Moscow is ready to support Crimea, a peninsula in the south of Ukraine, which has a strategic approach to the Black Sea and which is now de facto under Russian control, with more than a billion dollars, writes Agence France-Presse.
On the other hand, Kiev promises to "cover all the budget costs of Crimea" which, as announced by Ukrainian Finance Minister Oleksandr Shlapak, "will be financed as before".
Oil and gas come from Ukraine
Ukraine provides 85 percent of water resources and 82 percent of energy to the residents of Crimea, which number about two million, expert Mihailo Gonchar from the Kyiv-based Nomos center told AFP.
"The gas needs in Crimea are covered by the state company Chornomornaftogas, which extracts 1,6 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year," Gončar points out.
If Crimea joins Russia, warns Gonchar, Moscow "will not be able to compensate in the short term the resources that Ukraine provides to Crimea because there is no infrastructure between Russia and Crimea."
Fear of a bad tourist season
Crimea, the main destination for Russian tourists during the Soviet Union, still attracts visitors, so tourism is one of the main pillars of the peninsula's economy.
However, with the arrival of Russian soldiers and warships, resorts such as Yalta and Yevpatoria are already afraid of big losses and a bad tourist season.
Alushta, one of the most popular summer resorts in Crimea (photo: Reuters)
"Many have decided not to go to Crimea because it is dangerous, because it is not safe," explains Ukrainian journalist Sevgil Muzayeva and recalls that last year alone there were more than two million tourists. "What will happen this year? I can't even think" Companies that risk losing their clients if Crimea joins Russia, "are shocked by this situation, they can't believe what is happening. Until yesterday it was Ukrainian territory, and now there are soldiers, right next to the offices, Russian flags are in municipalities, schools," says Muzajeva.
The economy will weaken
In addition to tourism, one of the drivers of the Crimean economy is agriculture, which "depends on water resources from the rest of Ukraine," says Oleksiy Shorik, president of the Crimean Development Fund.
"It is ridiculous to say that there will be investments if the unrest continues. Crimea is a lost territory for economic development," he adds.
France Press reminds that the self-proclaimed authorities of Crimea announced on Wednesday that they will start confiscating Ukrainian state enterprises, but not private firms.
Every year, Ukraine gives 220 million euros to Crimea, deputy director of the non-governmental center Razumkov from Kiev and former deputy head of Ukrainian diplomacy Valery Chali told French press.
They believe that even if Moscow gives 1,1 billion dollars to Crimea as it announced, "it will not be enough to support the new authorities and for social guarantees to the citizens of Crimea", especially in terms of pensions and salaries.
Unlike Crimea, Ukraine will not feel any difference in terms of economy in case of the annexation of the peninsula to Russia.
"The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Crimean economy does not exceed three percent, so for now it is not a big loss, but it will be felt more over a longer period of time," warns Čali.
The Crimean parliament has scheduled a referendum for March 16, at which the citizens will vote on the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula to Russia. The decision on the referendum was made after the pro-Western opposition replaced the government in Ukraine.
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