A surge in support for eurosceptic, anti-immigration populists in the eurozone threatens to threaten the political consensus of moderate parties on austerity measures and budget discipline, according to a Reuters analysis of the results of the first round of the French presidential election and the fall of the Dutch government.
The prospect of ratifying and applying the agreement initiated by Germany, which would strictly enforce budgetary rules in the EU, is becoming less and less likely, and Europe is on the verge of being left without the dominant leadership tandem "Mercozi" who negotiated the agreement.
The shock of the first round of the presidential elections in France, in which the ultra-right, opponent of the euro, Marine Le Pen won about 18 percent of the vote, and the opponents of globalization and the EU together received the support of about a third of the voters, highlighted wider European trends.
From Amsterdam and Vienna to Helsinki and Athens, voters angry about unemployment and austerity measures, that is, because of the cost of bailing out debtors in the eurozone, are turning to insurgent parties, making it difficult for traditional political forces to lead the country.
Many blame Muslim immigrants largely for their economic woes, fueling tensions within Europe's aging societies that depend on immigrant labor and casting a shadow over the EU's open-border Schengen system.
Many blame largely Muslim immigrants for their economic woes, heightening tensions within increasingly aging European societies
The current French president, the conservative Nicolas Sarkozy, the main partner of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the management of Europe, could become the 11th leader in the eurozone to be deposed since the beginning of the crisis.
He will face Socialist Francois Hollande in a runoff on May 6 and must win the support of Le Pen's voters by taking a tough stance on Europe and promising to reduce immigration.
The Dutch government has fallen
In the Netherlands, a centre-right minority government fell after Geert Wilders' anti-immigration Freedom Party, a minor coalition partner, refused to back deep budget cuts to meet EU deficit reduction targets.
The downfall of the cabinet, which strongly supported the European fiscal pact and urged Greece and other troubled eurozone countries to get their finances in order, makes it less likely that the Dutch will ratify the deal in the coming months, if at all.
"While only the Netherlands not ratifying the agreement in theory would not spell its doom - since ratification by 12 of the 17 eurozone members is required to enter into force - it would, at the very least, significantly damage the agreement's credibility, and at worst, encourage others members to follow their path", believes Elastar Newton, chief political analyst of Nomura International agency.
Without France, the other European economy, the pact would not be worth as much as the paper it is printed on.
Hollande promised that, if elected, he would renegotiate the agreement to include measures to stimulate economic growth, which would be a condition for ratification in France.
Without France, the other European economy, the pact would not be worth as much as the paper it is printed on
Janis Emanuilidis, an analyst at the Brussels-based Center for European Policy, believes that populist resistance in France and the Netherlands would make it difficult for governments to reach an agreement on eurozone policy and future bailouts.
"Until now, we have seen that every time there is an existential crisis in the eurozone, parliaments find a majority at the last moment to make a decision, even when it means the fall of the government, as was the case in Slovakia last year," said Emanuilidis.
"However, it is becoming more difficult, and it will be even more difficult. The key question is what will happen if we cannot overcome the obstacle in a country called Germany. If we get to that point, we will hit a wall," he said.
So far, resistance parties have attracted little attention in Germany, despite political opposition to bailouts, largely because of the historical taboo created by the experiences of Nazism and Communism in the XNUMXth century.
Heart in the first round, head in the second round
Political risk analysts who follow the eurozone see populist voices as a longer-term threat to the bloc.
"With one in five French people voting for the National Front, the first election round revealed the risk we've been talking about since 2011: support for mainstream parties is shrinking, allowing fringe parties to win more votes based on anti-establishment and anti-Brussels rhetoric, which attracts the disaffected voters of both the left and the right," believes Tina Fordham, chief political analyst of the London agency City.
"It appears to be the case in France, and before that it was in the Netherlands and Finland."
The people are fed up with "similar policies of left-wing and right-wing governments that have been following the same unsuccessful policy for 30 years"
Fordham could add to this list Austria, where according to polls the ultra-right Freedom Party of Hans Christian Strache is one of the most popular, as well as Greece, where public opinion polls show that a series of ultra-right and ultra-left parties united in opposition to the harsh austerity measures imposed by the bailout program will of the EU and the IMF to win half of all votes in the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 6.
Lepenova clearly defined the mood by declaring that the people are fed up with "similar policies of left-wing and right-wing governments that have been following the same unsuccessful policy for 30 years."
The French electoral system encourages such candidates with two rounds that allow citizens to vote with their hearts in the first round and with their heads in the second round.
In the end, France will again be headed by a president from the pro-European moderate right or the pro-European moderate left, but their space for agreeing further steps in European integration will be smaller, which is the result of yesterday's vote.
Translated by: Danka Vraneš Redžić
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