A little more than a week after the far-right Alternative for Germany achieved a record result in regional elections, it may seem counterintuitive to even think that anti-EU populism in Europe has reached its peak and is now beginning to decline, according to Paul Taylor, editor and columnist for "Politiko" portal.
However, Taylor believes that a series of events in Italy, Britain, France, Spain, Slovakia and the Czech Republic indicate that things are changing to the detriment of the anti-establishment nationalist movements that have shaken the political scene across the continent.
This, as the "Politika" columnist points out, does not mean that the social and economic disturbances that turned the working class, rural and poorer voters against traditional political parties, the parliamentary system and the European Union have disappeared. However, it seems that the populists are not able to secure a majority for their radical anti-European direction.
Taylor cites the most obvious example as Italy, where former interior minister Matteo Salvini, whose right-wing League shared power with the anti-establishment Five Star Movement in Western Europe's first populist government, thought his country was ready for a full turn to the right and shut down the coalition in mid-August, demanding extraordinary elections.
And while "Il Capitano" toured beaches, took nude selfies with supporters and stoked fires in Rome, his attempt to consolidate power collapsed.
Namely, his partners from yesterday turned up their noses and agreed to form a government with the center-left Democratic Party. According to Taylor, Italy has, at least for now, moved away from the brink and is ready to turn to a more moderate pro-European economic and migration policy.
However, Salvini should not be underestimated, and this autocratic social media master could make a quick comeback if the economy continues to falter and the new coalition collapses.
Another example of populist stumbling, according to Taylor, is Britain, where Boris Johnson's attempt to satisfy populists by leaving the EU on October 31, even if it means leaving without an agreement with Brussels, suffered a spectacular defeat in parliament.
The new prime minister, who promised to take control of Europe as the leader of the Leave camp in the 2016 referendum, lost control of Brexit in the first vote in the House of Commons.
Given the chaotic state of British politics, the public's weariness due to endless fights over Brexit and the unattractive alternative offered by Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, Johnson could still succeed in reshaping the Conservative Party into a true Brexit party and winning the parliamentary elections next month, warns Taylor, but points out that now it is less likely after the debacle in parliament.
A third example is France, where President Emmanuel Macron appeared to be in serious trouble after members of the Yellow Vest movement staged violent demonstrations every Saturday and right-wing Marine Le Pen saw a surge in support.
Now, however, it seems that Macron has regained control, and the Yellow Vests have calmed down, at least for now, while Le Pen was unable to achieve a convincing victory in the European Parliament elections.
With the unemployment rate falling and the economy still holding up, populism seems to have reached its peak in France.
Taylor also points out that the Austrian coalition of conservatives and the right-wing Freedom Party collapsed in May when a video was released in which the leader of the anti-immigrant movement offered contracts to an alleged Russian businesswoman in exchange for illegal funding. Kicked out of the government, the Freedom Party still has the support of about 20 percent of voters, but it seems unlikely that it could return to power after the snap election.
In Spain too, populists on the extreme left and right seem to be lagging behind, while support for the socialist minority government of Pedro Sánchez is growing.
In Germany, the AfD has seen an increase in support in Brandenburg and Saxony, but the mainstream parties are acting quite determined not to allow them to come to power at the local and national level.
Of course, it should not be overlooked that the ruling right-wing nationalist parties achieved spectacular victories in the EU elections in Poland and Hungary and continue to defy European demands regarding the rule of law.
However, Poland's de facto leader Jaroslav Kaczynski may lose his parliamentary majority in elections in October despite his popular combination of socialism and Catholic nationalist conservatism.
Taylor believes fears of an illiberal populist wave sweeping across central Europe have been overblown, as liberal democrats have won Slovakia's presidential election and Czech billionaire Prime Minister Andrej Babiš is facing mass protests over alleged conflicts of interest.
However, despite all this, mainstream politicians must not relax.
The circumstances that led to the rise of nationalist politics are still present, says the "Politika" columnist.
The erosion of the foundations of 20th-century European democracy - political parties, trade unions, religious communities and industrial workplaces for a lifetime - has left societies vulnerable, writes Taylor, and warns that social networks offer an instant outlet for all kinds of protests, amplified by fake news and other manipulations. .
There's also the fact that populists don't need to be in power to set the agenda - especially when it comes to hot topics like immigration, where they've successfully shifted the discussion from how best to welcome refugees and integrate economic migrants to how to strengthen "Fortress Europe" and make it difficult for them to enter the continent - regardless of how valid their asylum claims are.
The populist current may have been broken, but there is still a lot to be done, concludes Taylor.
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