Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has so far never lost an election, will consolidate his power if he emerges as the winner of Sunday's presidential and parliamentary elections.
However, according to the Associated Press, achieving victory in elections called a year early may prove much more difficult than the Turkish leader hopes.
The Turkish opposition, made up of secularists, nationalists, Islamists and Kurds, is showing signs of a more unified performance for the first time, and some parties have even joined forces.
At the same time, the economy, once a shining example of Erdogan's success, seems increasingly unstable.
"Polls show that for voters, economic issues have become more important than security issues," says professor Serhat Guvenj.
The elections will complete the transformation of the Turkish political scene that began with last year's referendum on the transition from a parliamentary to a presidential system of government. Power will be concentrated in the hands of the president, who will be able to form the government, issue decrees and propose the budget. The position of prime minister will be abolished.
Critics claim that the new system will weaken the checks and balances of government. Erdogan, on the other hand, says the changes are necessary to ensure stability in a country that faces a range of security threats and has a history of political instability, including several coups since the 2016s. Erdogan himself "survived" the XNUMX coup attempt, after which a major purge was launched in the army and the state apparatus, and the state of emergency introduced then is still in force today.
"No one can return Turkey to the past days of crisis, chaos, instability, insecurity. This country cannot lose a single moment in such struggles," Erdogan said in a speech during the campaign.
Still, outright victory may come harder than expected for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP).
In addition to him, five other candidates are participating in the presidential elections. The two favorites of the opposition are Muharem Ince (54), a former physics professor from the Republican People's Party, and Meral Aksener (61), who founded the Good Party.
The candidate of the pro-Kurdish party HDP Selahatin Demirtaş campaigned from prison, where he is being held on charges of terrorism. Demirtas says the accusations are politically motivated.
Polls show that Erdogan is still the first favorite, although it is not certain that he will win 50 percent of the vote and thus avoid the second round, while the AKP could lose its parliamentary majority. This could potentially lead to a situation where Erdogan is president and the opposition holds parliament.
Erdogan somehow acknowledged the existence of such a possibility, that the AKP and the allied Nationalist Movement Party do not win more than 300 mandates, saying that he could look for other coalition partners.
Although it was the first time that the Turkish leader brought up such a possibility, he still added that the chance of that happening is "very, very small".
The state of the Turkish economy will be a key factor in the election, where 59 million Turks have the right to vote.
Economists have been warning of an impending financial crisis for some time, and the cracks are already starting to appear. The Turkish lira has lost more than 20 percent of its value against the dollar since the beginning of the year, and inflation is rising and currently stands at 12 percent. The budget deficit is increasing, and although the Turkish economy grew by seven percent last year, analysts say that this was partly achieved by the unsustainable construction of grandiose projects.
"It is certainly true that the economy will be one of the decisive factors for the election results. In this sense, the economy has become a handicap for the ruling party as it was an advantage for the ruling party in the past," said the president of the Center for Economy and Foreign Policy Sinan Ulgen .
Erdogan prefers unconventional methods of financial management, so his outright victory could further shake the economy.
Analyst Atila Jesilada says that in the event of Erdogan's complete victory, "the first thing he (Erdogan) would do would be to lower interest rates, which would not only destabilize the lira but also increase domestic demands for increased purchasing power and increase inflation and the budget deficit."
"These are very critical elections and their outcome will determine whether Turkey will have a soft landing, a gradual slowing of economic activity towards normal, or a hard landing, which roughly means a plane sinking, ie a recession and a currency crisis," Jesilada said.
The election campaign was quite one-sided. The streets were full of flags, banners and billboards of Erdogan and the AKP, which far outnumbered the posters of the opposing candidates.
Erdogan also dominated the airwaves - almost all television channels broadcast his speeches live, sometimes several speeches a day. Opposition candidates complained that broadcasts of their rallies were often interrupted in order to broadcast Erdogan live.
In addition to everything, the opposition did its best to make the president suffer, leading a stronger campaign than in the past. Ince's rally on Thursday in Izmir, a stronghold of secularism, drew hundreds of thousands of people.
Among the key factors will be the performance of the pro-Kurdish HDP in the parliamentary elections. Parties must pass the 10 percent threshold to enter parliament, and if the HDP succeeds in that, it could cost the most successful party tens of seats.
Changes in the electoral law benefited smaller parties, as they are now allowed to form pre-election coalitions and together win the necessary 10 percent of the vote.
For many Turks, the changes to the political system after the elections will be epoch-making.
"It's not just a question of who will be the next president of Turkey. It's about keeping the democratic game alive in Turkey," says Professor Guvendž.
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