Is Chancellor Merkel's visit to President Putin a sign of thawing relations? Germany and Russia have a similar position on the events in the Middle East, and they are also connected by the new gas pipeline. In these matters, America is on the opposite side.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's working visit to Moscow comes at a dramatic moment. Iran and the United States attacked each other on Iraqi soil, Iran abandoned the international nuclear deal, and Turkey sent troops to Libya.
Certainly enough reason for Russian President Vladimir Putin to invite Angela Merkel to a meeting - on Saturday in the Kremlin.
The conflict between Iran and the US will be the main topic of the meeting, and Merkel and Putin will also discuss Libya, Syria and Ukraine, their spokespeople announced.
Germany and Russia traditionally have strong economic ties, and Merkel has always been welcome in Moscow. However, Russia's role in the Ukrainian crisis and the annexation of Crimea in 2014 led to serious disruptions in the relations between the two countries.
The rapprochement of Berlin and Moscow
Aleksandar Baunov, political observer of the Moscow center Carnegie, said that "Ukraine has stopped being so toxic" for relations between Moscow and Berlin. As proof of the thawing of relations, he pointed to the recent progress in solving the Ukrainian crisis under the new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky.
Merkel and Putin may have drifted apart over the Ukraine crisis, but they are brought closer by the "one-sidedness and unpredictability of American actions," Baunov told DW, pointing to the U.S. sanctions introduced late last year against anyone involved in the construction of the Russian-German Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. There is also the decision of US President Donald Trump to liquidate Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.
The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the killing of Soleimani as "reckless", while a spokesman for the German Foreign Ministry said Berlin did not have "information that would allow us to see that the US attack was based on international law".
Conflict resolution
Russian analysts said that, following US actions in the Middle East, Merkel and Putin have a common goal to prevent further escalation of fighting.
"Russia is interested that what is happening in the Middle East does not have wider, bloodier consequences," said Middle East expert Andrey Ontikov. He added that Germany and the rest of Europe can play a positive role in calming the situation. "Of course, Russia must coordinate its policy, including coordination with Europe."
Putin may want to use the meeting with Merkel to present Russia as a mediator in the Middle East, and Berlin is also considering how to best use Putin's influence in the region.
Russian influence has been growing since entering the war in Syria in 2015. The Russian military is fighting alongside Iran to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is seen in Moscow as a guarantor of continued Russian influence in the Middle East. Putin also worked closely with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Syria.
Omid Nuripour, the German Greens MP in charge of foreign policy, told DW: "Putin is pretending to have influence in Iran. So I hope that the German chancellor will push him to convince the Iranians not to take retaliatory measures."
The Kremlin is constantly trying to coax Germany and the EU into closer relations, portraying the US as an unreliable partner, especially after Trump's decision to unilaterally exit the Iran nuclear deal. Both Germany and Russia are pushing to save the agreement, even after Iran also left it on Sunday.
Peace talks for Libya in Berlin?
Moscow and Berlin have also called for an end to the conflict in Libya. Fighting around Tripoli and Sirtes has escalated recently, as the so-called Libyan National Army under the leadership of General Khalifa Haftar advanced against forces loyal to the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity. Germany has warned that Libya could become "another Syria".
Germany offered to hold a peace conference for the conflicting parties. The so-called Berlin process could begin in the coming weeks, although no date has yet been set. Jürgen Hart, MP for the Christian Democrats, said that holding the conference would be a "great diplomatic success".
Putin issued a joint statement with Erdogan on Wednesday expressing support for the conference in Germany, although both leaders said results could only be achieved "with the participation and commitment of Libyans and neighboring countries." Putin and Erdogan have also called for a ceasefire starting on Sunday, January 12.
Moscow has never officially clarified whose side it is on in the conflict in Libya, although it has been reported in the media that Russian mercenaries are fighting on the side of General Haftar. Turkey sent troops to support the government in Tripoli last Sunday.
The meeting in Moscow could show how much diplomatic influence Merkel actually has in Libya and the Middle East. According to Fyodor Lukyan of the Russian Council on International Affairs, Putin is in charge of negotiations on the region. "Germany is a passive player here, an observer from the sidelines. "Russia is a key player in the Middle East," he told DW.
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