The EU is cautious because it does not want a new Ukraine

The European Union yesterday said it does not recognize Alexander Lukashenko as president of Belarus and announced sanctions against the regime, while the Belarusian leader stepped up efforts to maintain control of the country by ordering security forces to end riots in the capital, Minsk.

"There will be no more riots of any kind in Minsk," he said announcing a new police offensive in the capital. "People are tired. The people are looking for peace and quiet," Lukashenko said.

Earlier yesterday, police dispersed protesters and arrested two people outside a tractor factory, and also took control of a theater in Minsk where demonstrators were gathering to protest the dismissal of a director who was fired for supporting the opposition.

However, there was no indication of a major police operation to break up the demonstrations. Hundreds of people also gathered yesterday in front of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, where there were a large number of police officers who did not react.

The European Union yesterday held an emergency summit over the crisis in Belarus, where leaders rejected the results of the August 9 election and announced financial sanctions against officials the bloc considers responsible for election fraud and attacks on protesters. "This is about the Belarusian people and their legitimate right to decide the future of the country," said the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. "The European Union is on the side of the Belarusian people," she said.

Similar comments were made by US presidential candidate Joe Biden.

"The brave citizens of Belarus show that they will not be silenced by terror and torture," he announced on Twitter, adding that Russia should not interfere. "This is not about geopolitics, but about the right to choose a leader."

The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, made it clear that the EU does not recognize the election results and called on Lukashenko to release hundreds of arrested protesters.

However, the EU did not make a direct request to hold new elections, and reinforced calls for an "inclusive national dialogue", the British "Guardian" points out. The EU wants to avoid a repeat of the violence in neighboring Ukraine, where a pro-Moscow leader was ousted six years ago, sparking Russian military intervention and conflict. According to "Politika", European diplomats and officials hope that the current crisis will be resolved within Belarus and are careful in their statements so as not to give Russia a reason for military intervention.

"Belarus must find its own way, it must happen through dialogue within the country and there must be no intervention from outside," said German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She openly said that she does not see herself in the role of a mediator in the crisis, stressing that she tried to call Lukashenko, but that he refused to talk, for which the chancellor expressed her regret.

European officials claim that the situation in Belarus is different from that in Ukraine, mostly because the Belarusian opposition wants to get rid of Lukashenka, not to cut ties with Russia.

"Belarus is not Europe," said European Commissioner for Industry Thierry Breton. "Belarus is really strongly connected to Russia and the majority of the population is in favor of strong ties with Russia."

However, according to Reuters, some European officials, especially in countries close to the border with Belarus, are advocating stronger support for the opposition there and retaliating if Moscow supports efforts to suppress the protests. The Kremlin is now faced with the choice of supporting Lukashenka and seeing if he manages to stay in power or try to participate in a transfer of power to a leader who would keep Minsk in Moscow's orbit.

High-ranking Russian officials yesterday urged Western leaders not to interfere in the situation in Belarus, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused several EU states of "fighting for the post-Soviet space."

These comments reflect the increasingly widespread view that Lukashenko could survive the biggest protests during his 26 years in power, according to "The Guardian". "The most important thing in the current situation is to avoid foreign interference," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "Unfortunately, there were attempts of such direct interference from the outside," said Peskov. So far, Russia has largely refrained from providing direct aid to Lukashenko, at least publicly. However, Putin and Lukashenko have spoken by phone three times since Saturday, and there are indications of other high-level contacts as well. On Tuesday evening, the Tu-214 plane used by the head of the Russian FSB intelligence service flew to Minsk and returned a few hours later. Peskov said that he had no information about the flight.

Russia has not sent military aid to Belarus, Peskov said, adding: "There is no need for that at this moment, and in fact, the Belarusian leadership has admitted that it is not necessary now."

In statements to Russian state television, Lavrov accused Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and the EU parliament of trying to interfere in Belarus.

"No one hides that this is about geopolitics, about the fight for the post-Soviet space," he said. "We have seen this struggle in previous stages after the Soviet Union ceased to exist. The latest example is, of course, Ukraine," Lavrov said.

The necessary results so that the protests do not begin to subside

The Belarusian opposition is faced with the problem of how to keep the protests from losing momentum. On Tuesday, independent unions announced the formation of a national strike committee to coordinate activities in the country.

However, the reactions are mixed, the portal "Politiko" points out. The strike in the state media is waning, and despite the fact that several prominent journalists have left the program, television is still Lukashenko's main propaganda weapon.

However, employees at a key Belarusian factory went on strike for the third day in a row yesterday.

Rifor Astafenia, the founder of the Center for New Ideas in Minsk, believes that the fate of the strikes will depend on the behavior of the politicians who are trying to negotiate the transfer of power with Lukashenko. "Further events also depend on whether key officials will change sides," he told Politiko.

Andrej Kazakevich, director of the "Political Sphere" organization, believes that the strikes could begin to subside if they do not quickly produce results. "However, the degree of politicization of society is so high that protests could break out again in a month or two," he told the Brussels portal. He believes that the opposition still has other ways to put pressure on the regime to "start negotiations and seek a compromise." "A boycott of state institutions, such as state banks, is possible. In any case, the ability of state bodies to make and act in accordance with decisions will be threatened, and work discipline will decline," Kazakevich told Politiko.