Will Europe get a new, independent state? Today's parliamentary elections in Scotland will also be an indicator of whether the majority of Scots want independence from Great Britain. And re-membership in the EU.
No, the Sark does not look like a border river as it meanders slowly through green fields.
Vehicles race without stopping over a small stone bridge. And yet, there passes the border, invisible and unsightly. It divides Scotland and England.
But according to many who live on the northern side of Sark, that invisible border should soon turn into a visible one.
They want to leave the UK. As far as possible from London, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brexit. And back to the European Union.
The parliamentary elections held this Thursday (May 6.5) will also show whether the majority of Scots are in favor of independence.
The main favorite is the Scottish National Party (SNP), headed by the Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
She wants another referendum on secession. He will certainly win the most votes in the elections, and it is very likely that he will be able to form a government with the Green Party, which is also inclined to Scottish independence.
An absolute majority is required
Only, will it be enough for the absolute majority? Because, only in that case, according to experts, Prime Minister Johnson will not be able to refuse to call a new referendum on Scottish independence.
That worries people like Amy.
She lives in England with her husband and three children, but works in the Scottish town of Gretna Green, just over the border.
"Why are we separating this here," Amy wonders. "Well, it can't be separated".
The economic connection between Scotland and other parts of Great Britain is enormous.
The volume of trade is many times greater than that between Scotland and the EU.
Scientists from the London School of Economics have calculated that Scottish independence would be up to three times more expensive than Brexit.
This would also apply in the event that Scotland, in accordance with Prime Minister Sturgeon's plans, rejoins the European Union.
The Scottish branch of Johnson's Conservative Party points to this economic problem.
What currency should Scotland use, especially without its own central bank?
"There are a lot of questions when it comes to relations with the EU that the SNP has to answer," says Murdo Fraser, the Conservative Party's financial and political expert.
Conservatives fight for "super-majority"
Opponents of independence could benefit from a split within Scottish secessionists.
Alex Salmond, who before Nicola Sturgeon was the Prime Minister of Scotland and president of the SNP, recently founded his own party.
He, however, emphasizes that his goal is a "super-majority" for independence, but due to the electoral system, his new party could take away the SNP's votes.
Conservatives would benefit from that, Fraser believes.
The latest opinion polls show that supporters of remaining in the United Kingdom have a narrow lead, after supporters of secession have led in the polls for months.
Fraser surmises that the reason is that the consequences of Brexit have not turned out to be as dire as many feared.
In addition, he adds, Great Britain has gained in reputation due to the successful vaccination campaign against corona.
But political scientist Peter Lynch warns of the great popularity of Nicola Sturgeon, who successfully led Scotland during the pandemic. If she faced Boris Johnson directly in some elections, she would probably win convincingly.
Johnson must go down?
Angus Robertson, the German-born SNP candidate, believes it is time for the Scots to go their own way.
He says that the British government does not care about that part of the country and points out: "In London, the Tories rule, who in this country, Scotland, have not won a single election since 1955."
Robertson also reminds that almost two-thirds of Scots voted against Brexit in the 2016 referendum.
But there is one serious obstacle to calling a referendum: it is not possible without Boris Johnson's consent.
And he has already clearly said that his consent will not be forthcoming. And he says the 2014 referendum, in which a narrow majority voted to remain in the UK, was a "generational decision".
The SNP does not want to accept this and points out that Brexit has changed the initial positions.
The party's argument is: the British government is acting undemocratically if it ignores the will of the people in Scotland.
Angus Robertson believes in victory, because many foreigners living in Scotland have the right to vote.
And they, he emphasizes, are mostly pro-European oriented and often vote for the SNP.
There's also demographics: almost three-quarters of young Scots support independence, while older Scots mostly want to stay in Britain.
"We will win," Robertson is confident.
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