Southern European countries are in an unenviable position as they have to limit foreign tourism or risk the rapid spread of the delta strain of the coronavirus, while economists warn of another disappointing season either way.
Tourism-dependent countries such as Spain have opposed German Chancellor Angela Merkel's call for a coordinated European Union response for travelers from countries with high levels of the strain first detected in India.
However, economists say that they still have to balance between welcoming tourists from countries like Great Britain and Russia, where the strain is spreading, and the risk of an increase in infection with that variant in their countries.
"That compromise is already evident, with countries like Greece and Spain saying they are open to everyone, while the cost-income equation is viewed completely differently in northern European countries," Jessica Hinds, an economist, told the Financial Times (FT). consulting firm "Kapital Ikonomics" from London.
Spain, Portugal and Malta tightened restrictions on British tourists this Sunday. Earlier this month, Italy asked British travelers to go into quarantine for five days. However, after the income from foreign tourism fell by 80 percent last year, those countries are trying to make up for what was lost, writes the FT.
Inbound tourism accounted for 10 percent of gross domestic product in Portugal and Greece and nearly six percent in Spain in the year before the pandemic, according to OECD data.
In a bid to attract tourists, Spain and Portugal lifted most testing and quarantine restrictions on arrivals from countries such as Britain in May. Greece did the same for those vaccinated from 53 countries, including Russia. Since then, there has been a sharp increase in delta strain infections in both Britain and Russia.
The FT reports that the number of overnight stays in the EU in June was 55 percent lower compared to the period before the pandemic, but that it is predicted that this drop in August could be only 25-15 percent. Searches for accommodation in Spain on Google jumped again to the level of 2019.
The consulting company "McKinsey" has more gloomy forecasts, according to which the total income from tourism in Spain and Portugal this year will be half of what it was before the pandemic, and will fully recover by 2024.
The EU is expected to launch a digital vaccination certificate today to make it easier for citizens who are fully vaccinated, have a negative test result or have recovered from covid-19 to travel within the 27-member bloc.
Countries like Spain, however, are also keen to welcome tourists from outside the EU, particularly Britons. For Spain, Britain is the biggest source of tourists, with 2019 million in 18, compared to 11 million each from Germany and France.
A rapidly changing situation complicates matters. Great Britain gave a boost to Spain last Sunday by adding the Balearic Islands to the "green list" of quarantine-free travel. However, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez then re-imposed restrictions on British tourists, requiring them to be fully vaccinated or show a negative PCR test. The move hit the share prices of airlines including Ryanair and EasyJet.
The infection rate in the Balearic Islands has already risen as thousands of Spanish students went there to celebrate the end of exams two weeks ago. At least 850 of them have since tested positive for covid-19.
Tom Jenkins, chief executive of the Association of European Tour Operators, said the uncertainty would deter many in Britain from traveling this summer.
"The instability in terms of epidemiological and political risk means that any reservation is risky," he told the FT.
Portugal lifted restrictions on British tourists on May 17 shortly after the British government added the country to its "green list".
However, after three weeks, Britain took Portugal off the list, prompting many tourists to return early to avoid going into quarantine. Since then, Portugal has been among the European countries with the highest rate of infection with covid-19, so it introduced a weekend ban on travel to and from Lisbon.
A week later, Germany dealt Portugal a new blow when it added the country to the list of "countries with the coronavirus strain" and barred entry to most travelers from that country except for German citizens, who must undergo a 14-day quarantine upon return. Portugal has now introduced quarantine rules for unvaccinated visitors from Britain.
Merkel said at a press conference last Sunday that "in Portugal we have a situation that could have been avoided" if EU members had adopted a unified approach to travelers from higher-risk areas. After a few days, Malta announced that it would only accept fully vaccinated guests from Britain.
The German chancellor also criticized Greece for receiving visitors who received Russian and Chinese vaccines, which were not approved by the EU regulator. Greece announced this Sunday that it will require a negative test from all travelers arriving from Russia, even though they have been vaccinated.
Economists say the vaccination program in the EU is a race to save the area's tourist season from the delta strain. Rafael Domenech, head of economic analysis at the Spanish bank BBVA, says: "The best response to this threat is to speed up the vaccination campaign."
The British rushed to Majorca
British tourists flocked to the island of Majorca yesterday, expressing relief and gratitude to be able to return to Spanish beaches, Reuters reported.
Britain's lifting of restrictions means tourists will not have to be quarantined on their return from the island, unlike the rest of Spain and many other countries.
A spokesman for the Spanish hotel chain "Melia" said that 24 hours after putting the island on the green list, reservations rose to the level recorded during the 10 days before the 2019 pandemic.
A sharp increase in the number of tourists from Germany and France boosted Melia bookings, but the total number of tourists is still around 60 percent of the 2019 level, with Spaniards making up more than half, according to Reuters.
The government predicts that tourist arrivals this summer will reach 45 percent of the pre-pandemic level and about 54 percent this year, which is a big improvement compared to 10 percent in April.
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