Last Sunday I met a man on the streets of Berlin who was beside himself with rage. A tall, upset man was swinging his bicycle and screaming into the night. It seemed as if he was talking about the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, as the only honest world leader and that the Americans were once again trying to trick Germany into war.
It's tempting - but overly optimistic - to dismiss such outbursts as pointless. The Ukrainian crisis is taking place at a time when conspiracy theories are spreading throughout the Western world. Leaders struggling to shape an effective and unified response to Russia know that public opinion is key. For every bicycle-wielding lunatic, there are many more citizens who harbor a quiet distrust of their governments.
Rarely has public opinion in the West displayed such a low degree of trust in political leaders. The annual Edelman Trust Barometer reported in January "a collapse of trust in developed democracies" - with only 46 percent of Germans, 44 percent of Britons and 43 percent of Americans trusting their governments.
The fight over Ukraine comes as the streets of Ottawa, Canada's capital, are choked with anti-vaxxers - and similar demonstrations are taking place in Paris and are planned in other Western capitals.
In the US, President Joe Biden has yet to deal with conspiracy theories about his son's past business activities in Ukraine. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself has sunk into conspiracy theories.
The issue of trust is now crucial in the international struggle over Ukraine. The Russian government is an expert in "hybrid warfare" - where information and opinion are part of the battle. Putin is a former spy. Western governments are well aware that Russian information warfare has caught them off guard in the past, most notably during the 2016 US presidential campaign. That's one reason why the White House now presents intelligence reports not just to the president - but to the world.
Rarely has public opinion in the West displayed such a low level of trust in political leaders
Jake Sullivan, Biden's national security adviser, took to the White House podium on Friday to tell the world that Russia is building up troops in Ukraine — and to warn of a possible invasion ahead.
The goal was not only for the Americans to leave Ukraine on time. It was an effort by the US to gain control of the narrative before Russia did.
However, any American effort to use intelligence to shape public opinion must deal with the shadow of the war in Iraq. America's successful effort to build a "coalition of the willing" in 2003 was based on the release of intelligence claims that Saddam Hussein possessed "weapons of mass destruction." After no weapons of mass destruction were found, American credibility suffered a blow from which it never fully recovered.
However, there is an important difference between the type of intelligence used in Ukraine and Iraq. The existence of weapons of mass destruction has always been disputed. The fact that 130 Russian soldiers are on the border of Ukraine is not in dispute - not even for Moscow.
For Russia to succeed, it is not necessary to convince Western voters that the Kremlin is telling the truth, it is enough to suggest that the White House is lying
The propaganda war is currently being waged over intent. Russia denies it intended to attack and accuses the West of deliberately exaggerating the threat. The Russians claim that their soldiers will only act if provoked by Ukraine. Frequent Western suggestions that Russia is planning a "fake" operation to make just such a provocation are the backbone of this battle of narratives.
Some Western governments might complacently conclude that it is not difficult to defeat the Kremlin in the propaganda war. After all, how much credibility can Putin have - after first denying he sent the "little green men" to annex Crimea in 2014 only to later admit it? Or after he sent assassins to target a former Russian agent in Salisbury, England, and then let them claim on television that they had visited the city twice - but only because they wanted to see the famous cathedral?
However, for the Russians, success does not necessarily mean convincing Western voters that the Kremlin is telling the truth. It is just as effective to suggest that the White House is lying.
Unlike in 2003, Western governments seem to be largely in agreement about what is happening on the ground in Ukraine. France and Germany opposed the war in Iraq. Their leaders even expressed their opposition together with Putin. This time, the governments of major countries are united in their opposition to Russian threats. The differences that exist between Washington, Berlin, Paris and London mainly concern diplomatic strategy.
However, Western public opinion remains a weak link. Recent surveys show that 26 percent of Americans agree that "Joe Biden is a puppet president" controlled by the "deep state"; while 31 percent of Americans, 28 percent of the French, and 23 percent of Germans believe that it is definitely or probably true that there is "one group of people who secretly control events... and jointly rule the world."
That kind of extreme, irrational skepticism is a weak basis for building a consensus on a Western policy response that is likely to be costly and dangerous. Unfortunately, Putin has plenty of material as he tries to exploit the weaknesses of the West.
Text taken from "Financial Times"
Translated by: N. Bogetić
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