A neutral Ukraine modeled after Sweden or Austria: Is it possible?

Russia demands that Ukraine exclude the possibility of joining the North Atlantic Treaty. But, due to the threat from Russia, even traditionally neutral countries are increasingly leaning towards the Western military alliance.

A neutral Ukraine modeled after Sweden or Austria? Russian negotiators presented the proposal in mid-March as a possible way out of the war.

"It's a variant that was discussed and could be seen as a certain compromise," said Dmitry Peskov, the deputy head of the presidential administration in the Kremlin, on March 16.

Ukraine was formally neutral from independence in 1990 until 2014, but under the influence of Russia's annexation of Crimea, the Ukrainian parliament abandoned that policy.

In 2019, he overwhelmingly voted to change the constitution according to which membership in both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are state goals of constitutional rank.

Russia wants to prevent the realization of these goals. NATO does not want to accept Ukraine anyway, because it does not want to be dragged into a war with Russia. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has meanwhile admitted that Ukraine's entry into NATO is unattainable.

Neutrality as a choice or as an imposition

Can the neutrality of Sweden, Finland or Austria be a model for Ukraine? Each of these countries has a different pre-history of neutrality. Austria, like Germany, was occupied by the Allies at the end of World War II. In 1955, the Soviet Union agreed to withdraw its troops from Austria only when Vienna committed itself to "permanent neutrality" in a state treaty.

Leos Müller is a historian at Stockholm University and author of "Neutrality in World History".

He says that Austria then received "neutrality from above, based on the treaty of the great powers".

Sweden, unlike Austria, chose neutrality on its own. It has been in force for 200 years, since Sweden lost Finland in the war with Russia in 1809, which was then part of the Swedish state.

And in 1917, Finland won its independence on its own. She defended it in two wars against the Soviet Union.

"We would not have retained our sovereignty if we had not declared a pragmatic neutrality, which is in no way ideological," says former Finnish Prime Minister Aleksandar Stub.

But he adds that Finland's room for maneuver in Hlandorat times was very small.

Neutral countries at NATO maneuvers

In all three cases, neutrality has softened over the past three decades. Although Austria, Finland and Sweden have not yet joined any military alliance, they joined the European Union together in 1995. And it has a joint foreign and security policy with military elements. This Sunday, for example, EU foreign ministers decided to form a joint rapid intervention unit with 5.000 soldiers.

Especially the countries in Russia's neighborhood - Finland and Sweden - are looking for increasingly intensive military cooperation with the Western military alliance. Both countries are participating in the "Cold Response" military exercise, which is being held in the north of Norway, several hundred kilometers from the Russian border.

The exercise was planned before the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but now it takes on a different meaning.

Last June, Sweden and Finland held the joint military exercise "Arctic Challenge 2021" (Arctic Challenge) and invited seven countries that are members of the North Atlantic Treaty, including Germany.

The vast majority of Finns are in favor of joining NATO

Unlike Austria, Finland and Sweden feel that they are "strategically exposed", as the historian Müller describes it.

He also cites reasons, such as the very long Finnish-Russian border, the complex situation in the North Atlantic Pact members Estonia and Latvia, which have significant Russian minorities, as well as the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, which is full of weapons and is located on the neighboring coast of the Baltic Sea. .

Now in Sweden, as well as in Finland, the possible abandonment of neutrality and inclusion in NATO is being discussed. This would guarantee those countries, according to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, the help of all members if someone attacks them.

Former Finnish Prime Minister Stub believes that Finland will "definitely" join the Western military alliance.

He reckons that Finland's request to join NATO will follow "in a few months".

The latest polls show that 62 percent of Finns support that step, and only 16 percent are against it.

"The train left the station," Stub said, "and the final destination is the NATO headquarters."

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that Finland would indeed be welcome if it applied for membership.

Leos Müller is more cautious about Sweden. A relative majority of Swedes are in favor of joining NATO (41%), while 35 percent of respondents are against it. He believes that this will be the main topic in the parliamentary elections in September. Miller observes that the mood in the country has already changed quite a bit since the beginning of the war. He advocates a joint, coordinated entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO, if both countries want it.

Demilitarization "unthinkable for a neutral country"

Two countries that could abandon their neutrality due to the Russian threat cannot serve as a model for Ukraine. There is no similar shift in Austria, but it is geostrategically in a completely different position.

Leos Miller believes that neutrality cannot work for Ukraine, regardless of which model. He says that other powers or organizations, such as the US, Russia or NATO, would have to be guarantors of that neutrality and would have to protect Ukraine in the event of an attack.

"That, however, implies international law, agreement and organizations that function. But Russia is breaking with all that today," says Miller.

He also believes that the Russian demand for the "demilitarization of Ukraine" is an "unthinkable demand for a neutral country".

Miller cites the example of Sweden and Switzerland - Ukraine would have to have the same defense capabilities as those countries.

Ukraine has already experienced a moment when international guarantees proved to be worthless.

In 1994, the Budapest Memorandum obliged Ukraine to hand over to Russia the atomic weapons that had come from the Soviet Union's stockpile.

Russia, the US and Great Britain have in turn pledged to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and borders. Twenty years later, Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and the two Western signatories allowed it.

A moment like 1914.

Like the former Finnish Prime Minister Stub, the Swedish historian Miller believes that the war in Ukraine is a dramatic turning point: "Putin's war is destroying the world order after 1945".

And Aleksandar Stub adds: "This moment is for my generation what 1914 or 1939 or 1989 was for others."

He believes that now the iron curtain will be raised again in Europe and that Russia will be completely isolated.

According to Stub, some ties will be established with Russia once again: "But for me as a Finn, it is dramatic to know that we, with a common border of 1.340 kilometers, will hardly have contact with our neighbor in the foreseeable future."

If Finland abandons its neutrality and joins NATO, the Western military alliance and Russia will face each other directly on that long border in the north of Europe.